• Due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software, some users were "banned" when they tried to change their passwords at the end of February. This does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you were affected by this, please contact us.

The House and the Senate races 2016

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,847
At present the GOP controls both the House and the Senate letting them run amok and blocking anything Obama proposes as much as they can. This displays lack of respect for the President (at the very least) and an abuse of democracy.

Donald Trump, a non-politician and golf cheat :shock2:, is likely to be the GOP POTUS candidate in 2016. This has horrified many sitting Republicans in both the House and the Senate because Trump's dislikability may cause them to lose their seats. John McCain has already said this.

I understand that the House of Representatives is somewhat gerrymandered (perhaps others can give further information?) in favour of the GOP, but there is much more chance that the Senate may be won back by Democratic Party, as this article indicates:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/11/these-new-polls-should-make-democrats-feel-good-about-winning-back-the-senate/



The Democrats need to unseat only 4 or 5 Republicans to do this.
[W]hy the Senate map looks better and better for Senate Democrats:
  • Democrats are on offense: Of the 34 U.S. Senate seats up for grabs in November, they're defending only 10 of them, while Republicans have to defend 24.
  • Republicans are on defense: Eight of the top 10 Senate races most likely to change parties are held by Republicans. What's more, Republicans may be blowing one of their best pick-up opportunities in Colorado thanks to a messy GOP primary there.
  • Democrats definitely win the Senate with five seats, but they can also do it with four pickups should Democrats win the White House, since the vice president would serve as a tie-breaker in a 50-50 Senate.
I haven't seen an analysis of the House's possible results but shall post it as soon as I can find one. Or if someone else has anything please post it. And of the Senate of course.
 
Last edited:


livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,190
US Senate Elections 2016

Senate 2016: The Democrats Strike Back | FiveThirtyEight

With all the drama in the Presidential race, it’s easy to forget that there will also be Congressional Elections in the US this year. While all 435 seats in the House will be up for election, 34 Senate seats are also up for grabs.

The Senate races will be important – it’s possible that control could flip to the Democrats. If Clinton wins, they need four seats to flip to hold the Senate (with Clinton’s VP acting as a tie breaker). If Trump wins, they’d need to flip 5 seats.

This year’s cohort of Senators are disproportionately Republican – 24 of the 34 are Republicans, many of them elected in the 2010 wave that elected the likes Rubio and Kelly Ayotte. Most of the Democratic seats up for election are safe: Chuck Schumer in New York (who is in line to be the Democratic leader in the Senate after harry Reid’s retirement) and Barbara Boxer’s seat in California (even though she’s retiring) are safe as houses, for example.

The GOP might have two pickup options – Michael Bennett in Colorado, and Harry Reid’s seat in Nevada.

On the flip side, a range of GOP seats are seen as vulnerable. Mark Kirk in Illinois and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin look like the most certain casualties. Pat Toomey in PA, Rob Portman in Ohio, Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire all look vulnerable. If Marco Rubio sticks by his decision not to seek reelection (there have been some rumours that he could reconsider) then his seat in Florida looks risky. On a very bad day, John McCain in Arizona and Richard Burr in North Carolina could also go by the wayside.

If the dice falls poorly for the GOP, they could end up reversing their 2014 takeover, with Democrats fairly comfortable on 54 seats to the GOP on 46.
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,847
Sorry - didn't see that.

I've taken the liberty of merging them.
Thank you!

Do you have any information on the Reps? It is more likely the Democrats will have a majority in the Senate, but it would be an excellent result if the GOP loses the House as well. Make the incoming POTUS's life a lot easier. Things Will Get Done.
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,190
Thank you!

Do you have any information on the Reps? It is more likely the Democrats will have a majority in the Senate, but it would be an excellent result if the GOP loses the House as well. Make the incoming POTUS's life a lot easier. Things Will Get Done.
It would take a big upset for the Democrats to take back the House - even if they win more votes, as in 2012. Redistricting at state level means that even with 1% more of the vote in 2012, the GOP would a fairly large majority of seats.

I think it's pretty unlikely - but this cycle is pretty unpredictable, so it's conceivable that Trump ends up being enough of a drag on down ballot races that the Dems take back the House.
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,847
It would take a big upset for the Democrats to take back the House - even if they win more votes, as in 2012. Redistricting at state level means that even with 1% more of the vote in 2012, the GOP would a fairly large majority of seats.

I think it's pretty unlikely - but this cycle is pretty unpredictable, so it's conceivable that Trump ends up being enough of a drag on down ballot races that the Dems take back the House.
There should be an independent body to establish electoral boundaries to avoid gerrymandering. The GOP is ascendant at the moment but the Democrats have been known to practise it in the past. It is undemocratic.

Anyway, one Washington Post writer, Max Ehrenfreund, thinks that HRC and Paul Ryan, who is currently the leader of the House, may be able to get things done in these areas:

1. Poverty
2. Criminal Justice
3. Trade
4. Infrastructure
5. Foreign Policy

Of course, Ryan may not have much control over the House GOP, his predecessor found it a thankless task. But I think the House Republicans may be a bit more chastened after the Trump disaster and maybe Things Can Get Done, and obstruction is an historical embarrassment.

Article:
5 ways Hillary Clinton and Paul Ryan could make a deal
 
Last edited:

midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
5,688
I had a look at the last House elections a while ago and came to conclusion that the Dems have zero hope of taking the House this year, except in a GOP meltdown which is now looking less and less likely:-


CLOSE HOUSE DISTRICTS (Dems need 30 gains for majority)
Alaska-at-large 51/41 GOP (Libertarian 7%)
Arizona - 1 52/47 Dem
Arizona - 2 50/50 GOP
Arkansas - 2 52/44 GOP
California - 3 53/47 Dem
California - 7 50/50 Dem
California - 9 53/47 Dem
California - 16 51/49 Dem
California - 17 52/48 Dem
California - 24 52/48 Dem
California - 25 53/47 GOP
California - 26 51/49 Dem
California -31 52/48 Dem
California - 36 54/46 Dem
California - 52 52/48 Dem
Colorado - 6 51/43 GOP
Colorado - 7 55/45 Dem
Connecticut - 4 54/46 Dem
Connecticut - 5 53/46 Dem
Florida - 2 50/50 Dem
Florida -26 51/49 GOP
Georgia -12 55/45 GOP
Hawaii - 1 52-48 Dem
Illinois - 10 51/49 GOP
Illinois - 11 54/46 Dem
Illinois -12 52/42 GOP
Iowa - 1 51/49 GOP
Iowa - 2 52/47 Dem
Maine -2 47/42 GOP
Maryland - 6 49/48 Dem
Massachusetts - 9 55/45 Dem
Michigan-1 52/45 GOP
Minnesota - 1 54/46 Dem
Minnesota - 7 54/46 Dem
Minnesota -8 48/47 Dem
Missouri -5 51/45 Dem
Nebraska - 2 49/46 Dem
Nevada -4 48/46 GOP
New Hampshire - 1 52/48 GOP
New Jersey - 3 54/44 GOP
New York - 1 54/46 GOP
New York - 3 55/45 Dem
New York - 4 53/47 Dem
New York - 18 50/48 Dem
New York - 25 50/50 Dem
Utah - 4 51/46 GOP
Washington - 1 55/45 Dem
Washington - 4 51/49 GOP
Washington - 10 55/45 Dem
West Virginia - 2 47/44 GOP
West Virginia - 3 55/45 GOP

Dems have only 20 likely gains in prospect, while 31 Dem seats are held by margins of less than 10%.
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,847
I had a look at the last House elections a while ago and came to conclusion that the Dems have zero hope of taking the House this year, except in a GOP meltdown which is now looking less and less likely:-


CLOSE HOUSE DISTRICTS (Dems need 30 gains for majority)
Alaska-at-large 51/41 GOP (Libertarian 7%)
Arizona - 1 52/47 Dem
Arizona - 2 50/50 GOP
Arkansas - 2 52/44 GOP
California - 3 53/47 Dem
California - 7 50/50 Dem
California - 9 53/47 Dem
California - 16 51/49 Dem
California - 17 52/48 Dem
California - 24 52/48 Dem
California - 25 53/47 GOP
California - 26 51/49 Dem
California -31 52/48 Dem
California - 36 54/46 Dem
California - 52 52/48 Dem
Colorado - 6 51/43 GOP
Colorado - 7 55/45 Dem
Connecticut - 4 54/46 Dem
Connecticut - 5 53/46 Dem
Florida - 2 50/50 Dem
Florida -26 51/49 GOP
Georgia -12 55/45 GOP
Hawaii - 1 52-48 Dem
Illinois - 10 51/49 GOP
Illinois - 11 54/46 Dem
Illinois -12 52/42 GOP
Iowa - 1 51/49 GOP
Iowa - 2 52/47 Dem
Maine -2 47/42 GOP
Maryland - 6 49/48 Dem
Massachusetts - 9 55/45 Dem
Michigan-1 52/45 GOP
Minnesota - 1 54/46 Dem
Minnesota - 7 54/46 Dem
Minnesota -8 48/47 Dem
Missouri -5 51/45 Dem
Nebraska - 2 49/46 Dem
Nevada -4 48/46 GOP
New Hampshire - 1 52/48 GOP
New Jersey - 3 54/44 GOP
New York - 1 54/46 GOP
New York - 3 55/45 Dem
New York - 4 53/47 Dem
New York - 18 50/48 Dem
New York - 25 50/50 Dem
Utah - 4 51/46 GOP
Washington - 1 55/45 Dem
Washington - 4 51/49 GOP
Washington - 10 55/45 Dem
West Virginia - 2 47/44 GOP
West Virginia - 3 55/45 GOP

Dems have only 20 likely gains in prospect, while 31 Dem seats are held by margins of less than 10%.
Thanks, but can you tell me what the numbers mean? Eg Massachusetts 9 55/45 Dem. Then there are 3 Minnesota rows, why?
 

Breanainn

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2014
Messages
2,899
Ninth House district in Massachusetts - presumably, it finished 55-45 in favour of the Dems last time.
 

midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
5,688
Thanks, but can you tell me what the numbers mean? Eg Massachusetts 9 55/45 Dem. Then there are 3 Minnesota rows, why?
Sorry, it didn't 'paste' very well from Word Pad. Most states have several congressional districts and they are just numbered 1-9 or whatever - California has over 50. Each elects just one congressman/woman. The 55/45 is the result last time followed by the winning party. Every other district had a victory margin of over 10% and I don't see them as very likely to change hands.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
52,647
There will be a lot of ticket splitting this year. I'm intrigued about how many from the Trump wing of the GOP will oust sitting members in GOP Congressional primaries. Goldwater dragged down the House and Senate tickets too, but the survivors included a lot of his supporters, paving the way for Reaganism.

Win or lose Trump will have a lasting impact on US politics. What that impact is remains to be seen.
 
Last edited:

cropbeye

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 3, 2006
Messages
921
Tea party may have peaked. There is now also a coffee party.
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,847
Ninth House district in Massachusetts - presumably, it finished 55-45 in favour of the Dems last time.
Sorry, it didn't 'paste' very well from Word Pad. Most states have several congressional districts and they are just numbered 1-9 or whatever - California has over 50. Each elects just one congressman/woman. The 55/45 is the result last time followed by the winning party. Every other district had a victory margin of over 10% and I don't see them as very likely to change hands.
Thanks!
 

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,047
Thank you!

Do you have any information on the Reps? It is more likely the Democrats will have a majority in the Senate, but it would be an excellent result if the GOP loses the House as well. Make the incoming POTUS's life a lot easier. Things Will Get Done.

Regarding the House, the Democrats would need to pick up 30 seats and hold onto all of their current seats to take the majority in the House, not impossible but highly improbable. For that many seats to change hands would be getting into "wave" territory. Four of the last five elections were wave elections, with 2012 being the exception, when Obama was re-elected and very few seats changed hands in both the House and Senate. The one thing all of those four waves had in common is that they were waves against the party of the White House incumbent. A wave could materialize but given the high negatives of both major candidates it's difficult to predict what way it would go if one did start.


The good news for the Democrats though is that they are unlikely to lose too many seats as most of what they have are safe Democratic seats, largely in liberal enclaves and inner cities. Between the 2010 and 2014 midterms the GOP hoovered up most of the purple districts and consequently there isn't much room for them to grow either. This map illustrates the current state of play.

 

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,047
There will be a lot of ticket splitting this year. I'm intrigued about how many from the Trump wing of the GOP will oust sitting members in GOP Congressional primaries. Goldwater dragged down the House and Senate tickets too, but the survivors included a lot of his supporters, paving the way for Reaganism.

Win or lose Trump will have a lasting impact on US politics. What that impact is remains to be seen.
Agree with this. Ticket splitting has been declining in recent years but would expect an uptick this year given the unpopularity of the candidates at the top of the tickets.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top