The Immediate repercussions of the Right Honourable Jeremy B. Corbyn M. P., Prime Minister.

scolairebocht

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While obviously the election is not over by any means, the fact is that there is now much more than an outside chance that Jeremy Corbyn will be the next Prime Minister.

The gap between the two contenders seems to narrow all the time, one political scientist who has written on elections since 1945 - that's not a misquote! - was interviewed by Newsnight recently and he concluded that the swing in the polls back to Labour has been the largest swing he has ever seen in elections in his lifetime.

Tory Campaign
I think the reason for this is simply that the Tories have not put forward enough new positive steps that they would take, as opposed to some vague 'strong leadership' and an anti-Corbyn campaign. Margaret Thatcher, for example, always put forward some new and at least exciting step in her manifesto that people could talk about during the campaign whereas May's one only seems to contain bad news. Even if you look at the question of austerity, at least when Cameron championed it the populace could look forward to an end in sight in the person of a particular date when the deficit would be closed, whereas May has scrapped that and all the public see is never ending austerity. Cameron and Osborne also talked about a 'Northern Powerhouse', with some concrete steps like regional Mayors etc, again giving people something positive to look forward to whereas May doesn't talk that way at all.

Labour Campaign
Corbyn is also a person its easy to underestimate. Don't forget he has just won two Labour party leadership campaigns, which has quite a large electorate, handsomely, even when he was 100 to 1 against winning. In truth he has been in a minority of one for much of his life in the House of Commons but that means he is well accustomed to arguing his corner whereas May seems to have had a bit more of a charmed career and so is less comfortable with the cut and thrust of the campaign.

So this could really happen and it will be fascinating to see the implications, e.g.:

a) On Ireland. He is quite knowledgeable about this country and it will be interesting to see if he would favour Irish unity in his capacity as PM, by no means impossible.

b) Brexit. This is the humdinger obviously. Presumably in practice he can only forge ahead much like May before him, he will leave certainly but hope to get a deal and if not cut loose anyway probably.

c) Defence of the Realm. I don't think his premiership will go down well at all with the armed forces around the world, there really aren't all that many UK military adventures that he has supported over the years. I expect some disquiet here.

d) Scotland. Now this could be one of the most interesting areas. The fact is that presumably if he becomes PM it will be in coalition with the SNP and if so they will want their pound of flesh. Maybe they will demand either a new referendum or some kind of association between Scotland and the EU, but this could easily lead to a break up of the UK which no doubt the politburo in Brussels are in fact rooting for.

e) Foreign Policy. Generally he is quite independent minded and knowledgeable indeed about issues like Iran - he used to host a program for Iranian TV -, Israel - he is much more sympathetic to the Palestinians -, and Russia. So either UK foreign policy will change dramatically, it will be hard after all to just hoodwink him because he knows a lot about foreign policy, or there will be huge conflict in government when he takes over.

f) Economy. While his concern for the poor, and those oppressed by injustice, is very commendable and sincere I think it could lead to economic problems in the long run. I don't think he has much experience of the private sector or any real feel for the great difficulties of private enterprise in the modern age and if not he might make it very difficult for people in that sphere and so, gradually, crash the economy as has happened in otherwise wealthy places like Venezuela in modern times.

Anyway it could be interesting to see, if he gets in it makes Trump's victory and Brexit seem like a minor ripple in comparison to that tsunami!
 


publicrealm

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I would expect that the 'special relationship' with the US might take a bit of a tumble..
 

GDPR

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Id be interested to hear what Pies Prognosticators think - those geniuses who tell us they know all bets are off and all polls are wrong.
 

firefly123

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If (and it is a big IF) corbyn became PM it would be one of the biggest shocks in election history.
The brexit would still happen but be much more likely an English brexit with the north and Scotland remaining.
He is that rarest of rare beasts, an honest politican.

In somewhat the same manner that many Americans voted for trump for the Craic and to see what might happen I wonder will something similar happen in the UK but with a left winger.
I for one would love to see the man in charge because he might just help turn the tide of corporatism that is taking over the anglosphere. Imagine a leader who cared about his citizens rather than his polling numbers and if he looks hard on terrorists*



*who by the way would hate a corbyn government as it would mean less recruits.
 

GDPR

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He is sound on respecting the referendum results and was never a fan of the EU. His heart wasn't in the Remain campaign.

He knows a lot about Northern Ireland and because of that he will never allow Scottish Independence on his watch. Dealing with the nasties of the SNP will be one of his biggest domestic challenges and is most likely to cause a collapse of his government in the end if he gets in.

He will do what he can to push for a united Ireland which should be interesting.
 

GDPR

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Will be around 2022 when the tide turns.

Another five years of Tory sh*t. But this time with nothing behind them. They broke it, they own it.
 

fat finger

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What is extraordinary no matter is the way a general election in the UK, normally involving candidates in over six hundred constituencies has boiled down to a vote for Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn, it's as if all the other candidates simply don't matter, except as a proxy for May or Corbyn.
 

PBP voter

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Will be around 2022 when the tide turns.

Another five years of Tory sh*t. But this time with nothing behind them. They broke it, they own it.
Did you miss the mess that Labour made leading up to 2010?


Good on the Tories cutting hand outs to people like you. You seem to offer nothing to your community in your East Belfast hovel. You should be out working and not spamming.
 

firefly123

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What is extraordinary no matter is the way a general election in the UK, normally involving candidates in over six hundred constituencies has boiled down to a vote for Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn, it's as if all the other candidates simply don't matter, except as a proxy for May or Corbyn.
It's the americanisation of global politics. We all have to have TV debates and winners and losers.
 

ruserious

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I should have trademarked the Immediate Repercussions genre of threads.
 

Mad as Fish

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Just on Brexit and Defence.

Brexit is going to happen, it's been triggered and the the EU has shown its true colours. Even if another referendum were held the Merkel-Juncker axis has passed the Brexiteers enough bullets to ensure a leave vote without even mentioning the NHS.

Defence, there's very little of an army to send anywhere now while the RAF has more planes than it can fund and the navy is spending all its money on shiny new carriers. Can't see the UK doing much abroad unless someone else is paying for it.

Anyway, it seems that the landslide isn't going to be quite so slidy, so May is not going to get an easy a life as she no doubt hoped, and thank feck for that!
 

former wesleyan

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When he couldn't answer a question on the cost of his childcare policy the Corbynistas response was to accuse his questioner of being a Jew. :D
 

Dame_Enda

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The Blairites will continue the campaign to sabotage his leadership so they can try to reverse Brexit.
 

sadmal

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While obviously the election is not over by any means, the fact is that there is now much more than an outside chance that Jeremy Corbyn will be the next Prime Minister.

The gap between the two contenders seems to narrow all the time, one political scientist who has written on elections since 1945 - that's not a misquote! - was interviewed by Newsnight recently and he concluded that the swing in the polls back to Labour has been the largest swing he has ever seen in elections in his lifetime.

Tory Campaign
I think the reason for this is simply that the Tories have not put forward enough new positive steps that they would take, as opposed to some vague 'strong leadership' and an anti-Corbyn campaign. Margaret Thatcher, for example, always put forward some new and at least exciting step in her manifesto that people could talk about during the campaign whereas May's one only seems to contain bad news. Even if you look at the question of austerity, at least when Cameron championed it the populace could look forward to an end in sight in the person of a particular date when the deficit would be closed, whereas May has scrapped that and all the public see is never ending austerity. Cameron and Osborne also talked about a 'Northern Powerhouse', with some concrete steps like regional Mayors etc, again giving people something positive to look forward to whereas May doesn't talk that way at all.

Labour Campaign
Corbyn is also a person its easy to underestimate. Don't forget he has just won two Labour party leadership campaigns, which has quite a large electorate, handsomely, even when he was 100 to 1 against winning. In truth he has been in a minority of one for much of his life in the House of Commons but that means he is well accustomed to arguing his corner whereas May seems to have had a bit more of a charmed career and so is less comfortable with the cut and thrust of the campaign.

So this could really happen and it will be fascinating to see the implications, e.g.:

a) On Ireland. He is quite knowledgeable about this country and it will be interesting to see if he would favour Irish unity in his capacity as PM, by no means impossible.

b) Brexit. This is the humdinger obviously. Presumably in practice he can only forge ahead much like May before him, he will leave certainly but hope to get a deal and if not cut loose anyway probably.

c) Defence of the Realm. I don't think his premiership will go down well at all with the armed forces around the world, there really aren't all that many UK military adventures that he has supported over the years. I expect some disquiet here.

d) Scotland. Now this could be one of the most interesting areas. The fact is that presumably if he becomes PM it will be in coalition with the SNP and if so they will want their pound of flesh. Maybe they will demand either a new referendum or some kind of association between Scotland and the EU, but this could easily lead to a break up of the UK which no doubt the politburo in Brussels are in fact rooting for.

e) Foreign Policy. Generally he is quite independent minded and knowledgeable indeed about issues like Iran - he used to host a program for Iranian TV -, Israel - he is much more sympathetic to the Palestinians -, and Russia. So either UK foreign policy will change dramatically, it will be hard after all to just hoodwink him because he knows a lot about foreign policy, or there will be huge conflict in government when he takes over.

f) Economy. While his concern for the poor, and those oppressed by injustice, is very commendable and sincere I think it could lead to economic problems in the long run. I don't think he has much experience of the private sector or any real feel for the great difficulties of private enterprise in the modern age and if not he might make it very difficult for people in that sphere and so, gradually, crash the economy as has happened in otherwise wealthy places like Venezuela in modern times.

Anyway it could be interesting to see, if he gets in it makes Trump's victory and Brexit seem like a minor ripple in comparison to that tsunami!
One of the journalist on a Sunday paper remarked that he always looks like he just walk in from his allotment.

Slightly scruffy and very casual, like a very bored teacher gazing wistfully out of a school window.
 


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