The Last Debate: Varadkar v Martin v McDonald.

Baron von Biffo

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At last it's happening. SF has had their wish granted and their leader will be debating with the leaders of FG and FF in what could become the pivotal moment of GE 2020.

All three leaders must be exhausted at this point. On top of the physical drudge work of visiting every constituency they've had to do an endless round of interviews and debates. Tonight, when they're at their most vulnerable they'll also be under the most pressure of the campaign.

Varadkar is the most forlorn of the three. At this point his party has failed to halt the loss of support and realistically there's little he can do to change that tonight.

His two objectives will be to try to frighten voters into not changing from the experienced team and to present FG as the only vote for people who don't want SF in government.

It's unlikely he'll have much success with either. The only positive for him is that FG is probably at rock bottom so even if he has a really bad night he's not likely to lose any more votes.

Martin is the best debater of the three but in the earlier debates he been perceived as being tetchy and argumentative. He's under considerable pressure to avoid becoming the first FF leader not to be Taoiseach.

His goals are to win back some of the SF voters and to position FF as the only party that will be able to lead a stable government.

The challenge he faces is that there's no sign that the voters are interested in policy this time. The mantra is 'change' and FF, because of the Confidence and Supply agreement, is not perceived as a party of change.

McDonald is the weakest debater and the poorest on detail. She does have the advantage of a strong wind at her back.

Also in her favour is that because they're only running 42 candidates she probably already has all the support that SF can realistically hope to convert into seats.

Her game plan tonight will be to avoid making a serious mistake. She could probably weather a repeat of her poor performance in the Dobson interview so long as she keeps her temper in check.

The controversy over omitting McDonald from the earlier events and the fact that this is the last of the serious debates could result a larger audience than for the others. It's also the final week of the campaign, the time when most voters make up their minds.

Will it produce fireworks or will it be an anticlimax? One thing is certain, tonight is McDonald's to lose.
 


The OD

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It's come down to who is the least worst of the three and for me its a tie between Leo and Mary Lou.

Martin is yesterdays man running yesterdays party catering to a base of yesterdays people.

At least FG & SF operate (somewhat) in the modern world.
 

james toney

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Micheal Martin is on a level with that great debater Jack Chambers.
Will the leader of the corrupt party that bankrupted the country blame his staff for his spin and lies again?
I bet he will come across as the bully he really is.....as he begins to unravel.
 

SamsonS

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Tonight could be interesting. Its last chance for LV really to try and recover some lost ground, but if he does its more likely at the expense of SF than FF, so hard to see what he can do to bridge that gap to FF.
For MM he needs to dent SF, and the economy is the likely approach, but that will be easily batted away coming from a FF leader.
For MLM , chance to show that SF are 1 of 3 main parties, but would have been very easy to play the victim card if not in the debate. If she can survive the economy attack tonight then Saturday is looking sweet for SF.
 

wombat

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Tonight could be interesting. Its last chance for LV really to try and recover some lost ground, but if he does its more likely at the expense of SF than FF, so hard to see what he can do to bridge that gap to FF.
I don't think many who voted for FG in 2016 intend voting for SF this time, the policy gap is too big. At this stage, FG are the only party who think cutting income tax is a good idea. I think his target should be FF - vote for change, bring back Martin and Hanafin.
 

StarryPlough01

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Tanaiste Simon Coveney is feeling the pressure before the election - shooting his mouth off -






Man, Tanaiste Simon Coveney should go out on the streets and get some perspective …


An anthem for the homeless…


Under Pressure [extracts]
Queen & David Bowie

Pressure pushing down on me
Pressing down on you, no man ask for
Under pressure that burns a building down
Splits a family in two
Puts people on streets ….

It's the terror of knowing what this world is about
Watching some good friends screaming, "Let me out!"
Pray tomorrow gets me higher
Pressure on people, people on streets
….





'Queen + David Bowie & Annie Lennox - Under Pressure (Live)'
 

crossman

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At least FG & SF operate (somewhat) in the modern world.
I'm not sure SF do after last night. MLM said demographics would solve the pensions issue (a full 180 degrees from the truth) and they are opposed to a carbon tax on households. The latter will go down well but its nonsense.
 

Levellers

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I'm not sure SF do after last night. MLM said demographics would solve the pensions issue (a full 180 degrees from the truth) and they are opposed to a carbon tax on households. The latter will go down well but its nonsense.
A hundred firms are responsible for 70% of carbon. Putting all the blame on the individual is nonsense.
 

Mickeymac

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I'm not sure SF do after last night. MLM said demographics would solve the pensions issue (a full 180 degrees from the truth) and they are opposed to a carbon tax on households. The latter will go down well but its nonsense.


Give it a rest pal, enough electioneering has been done in the OP on behalf of everyone opposed to SF......who incidentally are leading the polls.

You could not make you clowns up ffs. 😂
 

SamsonS

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Give it a rest pal, enough electioneering has been done in the OP on behalf of everyone opposed to SF......who incidentally are leading the polls.

You could not make you clowns up ffs. 😂
Senior hurling Mickey. This is the potential breakthrough election for SF. If SF can escape scrutiny of their economic polices then they will be fine. If not it could be their Achilles heel.
For example, they have budgeted €175m from taxes on the banks profits - fine in itself, but may impact on share price and profits, reducing the value of the stake the state holds in the banks, and only a tiny fraction of what needs to be raised in taxes to meet the spending commitments.
The same amount , 175m is being estimated for additional income from smokers. While plenty would agree that's a far policy, if smoking is more prevalent in lower income groups then this tax is going to be paid by lower income groups.

Income levy of 5% on incomes over 140k. Fine in theory, and will raise €482m. How do you think that would go down with the IDA when they are trying to convince senior executives to open in Ireland? How is that policy going to impact the plans to hire 1000 doctors and consultants?
 

wombat

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Income levy of 5% on incomes over 140k. Fine in theory, and will raise €482m. How do you think that would go down with the IDA when they are trying to convince senior executives to open in Ireland? How is that policy going to impact the plans to hire 1000 doctors and consultants?
None of this matters as they know they won't have to implement any of it, it only needs to work with enough people until Saturday.
 

Baron von Biffo

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I'm not sure SF do after last night. MLM said demographics would solve the pensions issue (a full 180 degrees from the truth) and they are opposed to a carbon tax on households. The latter will go down well but its nonsense.
Their plan to take €170M from local authorities would be disastrous as well but their new voters seem oblivious to facts or consequences.
 

Mickeymac

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Senior hurling Mickey. This is the potential breakthrough election for SF. If SF can escape scrutiny of their economic polices then they will be fine. If not it could be their Achilles heel.
For example, they have budgeted €175m from taxes on the banks profits - fine in itself, but may impact on share price and profits, reducing the value of the stake the state holds in the banks, and only a tiny fraction of what needs to be raised in taxes to meet the spending commitments.
The same amount , 175m is being estimated for additional income from smokers. While plenty would agree that's a far policy, if smoking is more prevalent in lower income groups then this tax is going to be paid by lower income groups.

Income levy of 5% on incomes over 140k. Fine in theory, and will raise €482m. How do you think that would go down with the IDA when they are trying to convince senior executives to open in Ireland? How is that policy going to impact the plans to hire 1000 doctors and consultants?

SF have never been in government before, the voters have demanded change through the various opinion polls, they have asked for the chance to give them a try, I say OK, why don't you?
 

Mickeymac

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Their plan to take €170M from local authorities would be disastrous as well but their new voters seem oblivious to facts or consequences.


Buff, are you now claiming the parties who have governed the 26 Counties since partition got it all correct economically?

If that were true buff, why is the voting trends not in favour of the two "big" parties which have ran the place since Britain left?
 

wombat

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SF have never been in government before, the voters have demanded change through the various opinion polls, they have asked for the chance to give them a try, I say OK, why don't you?
You don't need to jump in the ocean to see if you'll drown.
 

Mickeymac

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You don't need to jump in the ocean to see if you'll drown.

Silly soundbites have no place in the run up to polling day, simply qualifies you as a...…... "don't care who wins provided it's not themmens"
 

james toney

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Large hole put in Fine Gael and Fianna Fail taxation spin by the Business post.
Both looking after the rich (no surprise there).... Fianna Fail targeting middle income earners....and Fine Gael tax policies benefit just 21% of workers.

EP8lcVPW4AIh1dk.jpeg
 

Mickeymac

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Large hole put in Fine Gael and Fianna Fail taxation spin by the Business post.
Both looking after the rich (no surprise there).... Fianna Fail targeting middle income earners....and Fine Gael tax policies benefit just 21% of workers.

EP8lcVPW4AIh1dk.jpeg


Sounds like the Shinners FU by not fielding 80+ candidates, tbf though, few politicians realised the deep yearning for change in Ireland.
 

brughahaha

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Large hole put in Fine Gael and Fianna Fail taxation spin by the Business post.
Both looking after the rich (no surprise there).... Fianna Fail targeting middle income earners....and Fine Gael tax policies benefit just 21% of workers.

EP8lcVPW4AIh1dk.jpeg
Im often dubious about those statistics. ........2 million in work and 1% of that is 40,000

Doctors, Consultants, Solicitors, Company Owners , Senior and often middle Management in PS, Semistates and Multi nationals , Landlords , Big Farmers , Sports people .......
only 40,000 of them ..... I doubt it very much!!!
 


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