The May Assembly Elections: Your Views

DerryBee

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 13, 2010
Messages
320
It would appear that the Democratic Unionist Party and Peter Robinson are already launching a strong and confident election campaign for next May’s assembly elections and today will hold their annual party conference (26-27 November, 2010) at the Le Mon Hotel. Unlike previous DUP conferences, it is expected that the party will focus its attention upon positive, mature and concrete policies, and will, as Peter Robinson has suggested, endeavour to demonstrate the accomplishments of the Northern Ireland Executive, the benefits of power-sharing and the increasingly constructive relationship between the DUP and Sinn Fein. As usual, Alan in Belfast will be providing first class commentary on the conference and has produced a thoughtful article on the forthcoming event on sluggerotoole.com and can be found here:

DUP Conference Preview – moving forward or staying in the same place? « Slugger O'Toole

Now, that the DUP have effectively begun their election campaign, and the Ulster Unionist Party have released their candidates, I think it would be a good time to discuss the forthcoming election, party policies and predictions of winning seats.

Here are the candidates selected by the UUP to run for next May’s assembly elections:

Harry Hamilton (Upper Bann), David McClarty (East Londonderry) and George Savage (Upper Bann) have not been selected to run for the Ulster Unionist Party in next May's Assembly Elections.

Robert Coulter (North Antrim), Ken Robinson (East Antrim) and Billy Armstrong (Mid-Ulster) are stepping down from Stormont.

North Down MLA Alan McFarland left the UUP in March and may run as an independent in the area.

North Antrim: Bill Kennedy and Robin Swann
East Antrim: Roy Beggs (Jnr) and Rodney McCune
South Antrim: Danny Kinahan and Adrian Watson
North Belfast: Fred Cobain
West Belfast: Bill Manwarring
South Belfast: Mark Finlay and Michael McGimpsey
East Belfast: Reg Empey and Tim Lemon
North Down: Colin Breen and Leslie Cree
Strangford: David McNarry and Mike Nesbitt
South Down: John McCallister
Newry & Armagh: Danny Kennedy
Lagan Valley: Mark Hill and Basil McCrea
Upper Bann: Jo-Anne Dobson, Sam Gardiner and Colin McCusker
F&ST: Kenny Donaldson and Tom Elliott
Mid Ulster: Sandra Overend
West Tyrone: Ross Hussey
East Londonderry: David Harding and Lesley Macaulay
Foyle: Still to select

P.S. My post is short because I have business to attend to but I will further elaborate later! :D
 


picador

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 19, 2009
Messages
20,659
Compared to the elction that is soon to take place in the south this election is trivial and unimportant.
 

DerryBee

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 13, 2010
Messages
320
Compared to the elction that is soon to take place in the south this election is trivial and unimportant.
:oops:

Given the current political and economic instability in the South, of course the forthcoming election is important, but so too is the assembly election in May and as this is the board for Northern Ireland I thought that it would be nice perhaps to have a discussion about the future of Stormont...:D
 

Garza

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 26, 2010
Messages
2,543
I predict little change in seats.

However I do think that the nationalists and unionists parties will get less votes. Voting will be down from last year. There is a trend now that people are growing disechanted with the current parties.
 

Just Jack

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 10, 2010
Messages
3,739
Little, if any change at all.

Jim Allister, will probably get elected, which should make things more entertaining in the Assembly.

I expect the DUP to retain its position as the largest party and to hold onto the office of FM.
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
40,196
Little, if any change at all.

Jim Allister, will probably get elected, which should make things more entertaining in the Assembly.

I expect the DUP to retain its position as the largest party and to hold onto the office of FM.




Totally disagree with you sir, I predict Robbo will lose his seat and SF to be the largest party.
 

Just Jack

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 10, 2010
Messages
3,739
Totally disagree with you sir, I predict Robbo will lose his seat and SF to be the largest party.
For that to happen though, it would still need quite a shift in the number of seats...

I think SF need a 9 seat swing, I cannot see that happening.
 

Garza

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 26, 2010
Messages
2,543
I'd like to see the Stoops and the UUP further emasculated. The place will run better with the DUP and SF operating without distractions.
I would only like to see the SDLP and UUP wiped out if labour and conservatives took their place.
 

Garza

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 26, 2010
Messages
2,543
Totally disagree with you sir, I predict Robbo will lose his seat and SF to be the largest party.
Fat chance in that. SF's vote here is stagnating, just like the other parties.
 

Scipio

Well-known member
Joined
May 3, 2010
Messages
936
I would only like to see the SDLP and UUP wiped out if labour and conservatives took their place.
To be brutally honest, I don't think they have any interest. The only time you'll see them is if Westminster seats become a possibility.
 

Antrim

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 11, 2010
Messages
340
Why is Harry Hamilton not standing for the UUP? I though that he would be one of the more high profile candidates and they need high profile candidates.

Peter Robinson’s leadership seems to be very strong lately. I could see the DUP making good gains against the UUP.

The TUV will make a small impact but Jim Allister will probably get elected and be a constant thorn in the side of the assembly.

I think Sinn Fein will make some small gains against the SDPL. If Sinn Fein do well in the election in the south they might hurt the SDLP a lot more.

I think the Alliance party will do well. The will take a lot of moderate votes from the UUP and probably a few from the SDLP.

Sinn Fein wont get first minister this time but it will be deadly close.
 

DerryBee

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 13, 2010
Messages
320
Why is Harry Hamilton not standing for the UUP? I though that he would be one of the more high profile candidates and they need high profile candidates.

Peter Robinson’s leadership seems to be very strong lately. I could see the DUP making good gains against the UUP.

The TUV will make a small impact but Jim Allister will probably get elected and be a constant thorn in the side of the assembly.

I think Sinn Fein will make some small gains against the SDPL. If Sinn Fein do well in the election in the south they might hurt the SDLP a lot more.

I think the Alliance party will do well. The will take a lot of moderate votes from the UUP and probably a few from the SDLP.

Sinn Fein wont get first minister this time but it will be deadly close.

Good analysis Antrim, I would tend to agree with your view regarding the potential outcome of the forthcoming assembly election. I also cannot understand why the Ulster Unionist Party did not invest more readily in Harry Hamilton, and give him the opportunity to run for the next assembly election because he was certainly a popular, hard-working and thoroughly likeable candidate during the Westminster campaign: he could have been a breath of fresh air for the UUP. I can only imagine that such an omission, the departure of Alan McFarland and the failure of the UUP to re-select David McClarty may only serve to benefit the DUP.


On another note, did anyone watch Peter Robinson’s performance this morning at the Democratic Unionist Party conference at the Le Mon Hotel in which he delivered an impressive and surprisingly forward looking speech concerning the future of Northern Ireland and the power-sharing institutions? Objectively speaking, I was greatly impressed by Robinson’s strong performance, and the confident and positive nature of his speech, which would appear to demonstrate Robinson’s desire to move the DUP beyond its traditional areas of concern towards the ‘middle-ground’ of Unionist and local politics. One thing was made very clear by Robinson this morning, and that is that he has already fired the starting pistol for the forthcoming May election. During the course of the speech, Eamonn Mallie described Robinson’s sentiments as contributing to one of the most forward looking speeches a Unionist politician has made in years: I too, would agree with this view. In case anyone missed the conference speech it is available to view here:

BBC News - Peter Robinson's conference speech in full

Additional, reviews and analysis of the party conference can also be found on the following links:

DUP conference (updated) « Slugger O'Toole

Hand of History: My Adventures at the DUP Conference (part 1)

Hand of History: My Adventures at the DUP Conference (part 2)

Hand of History: My Adventures at the DUP Conference (part 3 - Leaders speech)

One of the most interesting things about Robinson’s speech was the fact that he did not even mention the UUP: something of which would have played a prominent role in previous speeches by the leader of the DUP. Jim Fitzpatrick suggested that this deliberate omission could either have demonstrated the increasingly irrelevant position of the UUP within DUP considerations, or an intentional omission due to the recognition that internal Unionist infighting is viewed in an unfavourable light by many voters. Whatever the motivation, it is clear that many disaffected voters and UUP supporters may be prepared to vote for the DUP in the forthcoming election given the increasingly ‘moderate’, strong and confident performance of Peter Robinson and the DUP in recent months. Certainly, I have encountered many people willing to place their trust in the DUP, whereas in the past such people would never have considered voting for the party.

Next week, the UUP conference will take place: this will be an interesting and perhaps crucial moment in Tom Elliot’s early leadership of the party: it will be interesting to see if he and the UUP can match the unusually excitable, confident and positive mood of the DUP conference.
 

northernstar

Active member
Joined
Nov 13, 2010
Messages
282
Good analysis Antrim, I would tend to agree with your view regarding the potential outcome of the forthcoming assembly election. I also cannot understand why the Ulster Unionist Party did not invest more readily in Harry Hamilton, and give him the opportunity to run for the next assembly election because he was certainly a popular, hard-working and thoroughly likeable candidate during the Westminster campaign: he could have been a breath of fresh air for the UUP. I can only imagine that such an omission, the departure of Alan McFarland and the failure of the UUP to re-select David McClarty may only serve to benefit the DUP.


On another note, did anyone watch Peter Robinson’s performance this morning at the Democratic Unionist Party conference at the Le Mon Hotel in which he delivered an impressive and surprisingly forward looking speech concerning the future of Northern Ireland and the power-sharing institutions? Objectively speaking, I was greatly impressed by Robinson’s strong performance, and the confident and positive nature of his speech, which would appear to demonstrate Robinson’s desire to move the DUP beyond its traditional areas of concern towards the ‘middle-ground’ of Unionist and local politics. One thing was made very clear by Robinson this morning, and that is that he has already fired the starting pistol for the forthcoming May election. During the course of the speech, Eamonn Mallie described Robinson’s sentiments as contributing to one of the most forward looking speeches a Unionist politician has made in years: I too, would agree with this view. In case anyone missed the conference speech it is available to view here:

BBC News - Peter Robinson's conference speech in full

Additional, reviews and analysis of the party conference can also be found on the following links:

DUP conference (updated) « Slugger O'Toole

Hand of History: My Adventures at the DUP Conference (part 1)

Hand of History: My Adventures at the DUP Conference (part 2)

Hand of History: My Adventures at the DUP Conference (part 3 - Leaders speech)

One of the most interesting things about Robinson’s speech was the fact that he did not even mention the UUP: something of which would have played a prominent role in previous speeches by the leader of the DUP. Jim Fitzpatrick suggested that this deliberate omission could either have demonstrated the increasingly irrelevant position of the UUP within DUP considerations, or an intentional omission due to the recognition that internal Unionist infighting is viewed in an unfavourable light by many voters. Whatever the motivation, it is clear that many disaffected voters and UUP supporters may be prepared to vote for the DUP in the forthcoming election given the increasingly ‘moderate’, strong and confident performance of Peter Robinson and the DUP in recent months. Certainly, I have encountered many people willing to place their trust in the DUP, whereas in the past such people would never have considered voting for the party.

Next week, the UUP conference will take place: this will be an interesting and perhaps crucial moment in Tom Elliot’s early leadership of the party: it will be interesting to see if he and the UUP can match the unusually excitable, confident and positive mood of the DUP conference.
When you talk about people wanting moderates. What would you say is the reason Trimble lost to Simpson in 2005 then?
 

DerryBee

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 13, 2010
Messages
320
When you talk about people wanting moderates. What would you say is the reason Trimble lost to Simpson in 2005 then?
Well, I dare not hazard an analysis of why David Trimble lost his seat to David Simpson, particularly as my knowledge is not as strong as it should be in regard to David Trimble’s political downfall. That is, regrettably an honest assessment of my own lack of knowledge, but perhaps someone else can address that question?...:oops:

In my, perhaps limited view, I think that a great deal has changed since 2005 in terms of the politics of Northern Ireland and the subsequent solidification of Stormont as a power-sharing institution, but in regards to my previous post: I am just saying that many of my friends are viewing the increasingly apparent ‘moderating’ transition of the DUP in recent months in a favourable light, indeed the advances made by the Alliance Party in 2010 has also encouraged many of my friends...:D
 
Last edited:

Scipio

Well-known member
Joined
May 3, 2010
Messages
936
Well, I dare not hazard an analysis of why David Trimble lost his seat to David Simpson, particularly as my knowledge is not as strong as it should be in regard to David Trimble’s political downfall. That is, regrettably an honest assessment of my own lack of knowledge, but perhaps someone else can address that question?...:oops:

In my, perhaps limited view, I think that a great deal has changed since 2005 in terms of the politics of Northern Ireland and the subsequent solidification of Stormont as a power-sharing institution, but in regards to my previous post: I am just saying that many of my friends are viewing the increasingly apparent ‘moderating’ transition of the DUP in recent months in a favourable light, indeed the advances made by the Alliance Party in 2010 has also encouraged many of my friends...:D
Don't mistake the "moderating" leadership of Peter Robinson for a moderation of the DUP. They remain a right-wing party with a very substantial Evangelical fundamentalist base/influence.
 

DerryBee

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 13, 2010
Messages
320
Don't mistake the "moderating" leadership of Peter Robinson for a moderation of the DUP. They remain a right-wing party with a very substantial Evangelical fundamentalist base/influence.
That the DUP remains on the right, or the centre right of politics and retains a religiously fundamental support base cannot be doubted, but it would certainly appear that the recent rhetoric and policy aspirations of the party under the leadership of Peter Robinson is indicative of a subtle attempt to expand the party and to move it beyond its traditional boundaries. I am not advocating the DUP, but I do believe that it is now assuming an increasingly ‘moderate’ (certainly, in relation to the DUP of the past) and pragmatic position which appears to suggest that it is indeed a party in positive transition, which I know has impressed many objective observers of the DUP and local politics in general.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top