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The Myth Of Unionist Demographic Decline

rem81

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 16, 2010
Messages
472
A commonly-spouted nationalist claim is that the noble, virile Catholic republicans are gonna outbreed the evil British hun planter invader black orangies luther-loving Presby invading colonist imperialist sectarian Britannic discriminatory oppressive alien foreign savage sash-wearing lambeg-drumming contraception-using immigrants from a land across the sea and then vote the republic into existence fulfilling the legacy of Plunkett, Pearse and Tone (the lundy he).

However does this hold up to scrutiny?

Age and religion

0 to 4
44.3% 31.7% 0.9% 23.2%
Catholic Prods Other No Religion

5 to 9
45.5% 36.1% 0.7% 17.7%

Notice that from 5 to 9 to zero to 4, Prods take a nice decline and no religion takes a huge increase, prods lose the same amount no religion gains whereas Catholics are basically the same?

Also look at national identity and religion:

No religion: 55.9% British, 35.2% NI, 14 Irish


Therefore it seems reasonable to conclude that these lads who choose no religion are culturally from the PUL community and staunch British citizens

The myth of Catholic domination has been exposed. Increasing birth rates among the prods along with increasingly religiosity among Catholic women will no doubt further temper this.

This isnt an anti-Catholic thread, as I love Catholic people but am merely pointing out that Prods aren't going anywhere.

Regardless of the morality or lack thereof of partition originally, that was over a century ago now and the Ulster people have been living here before yanks arrived in the states. Combined with the fact 50% of Catholics are unionists, and theres no chance of a UI.
All the Catholics I know even after Brexit like their social benefits. So much for economic prosperity in a UI when people here enjoy the social services... I know most Scots wouldn't relocate to London just because its richer when ti has inferior social public services.

The IRAs and the Irish people were unfairly treated for very long, but now its time for people to calm down and wind their necks in and get on with it all. All the ridiculous nationalism in the 21st century. Now I don't think all patriotism is bad and in fact I am a patriot, but this world is always getting more globalised and we cant afford to go on about mandates of those who died decades ago. We must tear down the walls and integrate non-sectarian education, and promote non-sectarian Britishism. Many famous IRA volunteers grew up in houses with the queen's portrait on the wall.


I know that many republicans are deeply invested in the republican struggle and their heroes, but its time to put the idea of an all-island unitary state to rest. The Irish people will always have things in common across all borders, but that doesn't mean there has to be the same legislature, or courts or the president/PM.

The Irish CNR community must accept the queen and the reality of the 21st century.
 


raetsel

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Joined
Jun 5, 2017
Messages
7,631
A strange time to post such an intriguing topic when it runs a risk of getting lost in the fog of the night - but I'll bite.
Last time Lucid Talk polled on the topic of a united Ireland in the event of Brexit, in December 2018 these were the results.

Options%NationalistNeutralUnionist
Remain in UK - 100% certain.380580
Remain in UK - probably4096
Don't know32163
Join UI - probably75266
Join UI - certain4893445

Polls of course are not referenda but they do reflect the public mood fairly accurately at a specific point in time. Lucid Talk have an excellent record, by the way.
Of course that poll doesn't tell you anything about the depth of commitment to one cause or the other, because it is based upon the UK leaving the EU without a deal - and there were a lot of Alliance and Green voters opting for Irish unity in such an event - some of whom would be unionist if the UK remained. Furthermore what is often forgotten is that there is a core 10% or thereabouts of people from Protestant backgrounds who are favourably disposed to the idea of Irish unity anyway, and who are always ignored.
 

Marcella

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Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
3,786
Age and religion

0 to 4
44.3% 31.7% 0.9% 23.2%
Catholic Prods Other No Religion

5 to 9
45.5% 36.1% 0.7% 17.7%

Notice that from 5 to 9 to zero to 4, Prods take a nice decline and no religion takes a huge increase, prods lose the same amount no religion gains whereas Catholics are basically the same?
If the census was looking at the same cohort developing over a period of years you would be right but as it is a snap shot looking at all cohorts, your analysis makes no sense.

To put it plainly, 0-4 years old has no statistical bearing on the 5-9 age group.
 
Last edited:

livingstone

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Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,285
There is a nugget of truth in the OP: demographics alone will not result in constitutional change. Plenty of stats show that Catholics less likely to identify as being in favour of Irish unity than Protestants in favour of union with GB. Essentially, the GFA seems to have resulted in a lot of folk who are Catholic and identify as Irish but who are content with the status quo (or at least the status quo before the institutions collapsed). What has happened is that there is a fairly decent cohort of people of Northern Ireland - from both nationalist and unionist backgrounds -who are not dogmatic about NI's constitutional status. Their concern is not the territorial designation, but the reality on the ground: what is best economically, what arrangements gives peace and stability, what arrangement allows them to hold and express their national identity and enjoy rights and equality etc.

It is entirely possible that changes. Brexit of any variety, in which the EU citizenship rights of Irish citizens in Northern Ireland are curtailed could affect that. No deal brexit, or Brexit that results in a hard border certainly would affect it. The continued disparity between NI and IE on social issues like marriage and abortion likely to shape it. So will any sense that the status quo is not delivering economic development. But this isn't just about things that will shift nationalist opinion, but also unaligned or soft unionist opinion.
 

bang bang

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 11, 2010
Messages
1,332
A commonly-spouted nationalist claim is that the noble, virile Catholic republicans are gonna outbreed the evil British hun planter invader black orangies luther-loving Presby invading colonist imperialist sectarian Britannic discriminatory oppressive alien foreign savage sash-wearing lambeg-drumming contraception-using immigrants from a land across the sea and then vote the republic into existence fulfilling the legacy of Plunkett, Pearse and Tone (the lundy he).

However does this hold up to scrutiny?

Age and religion

0 to 4
44.3% 31.7% 0.9% 23.2%
Catholic Prods Other No Religion

5 to 9
45.5% 36.1% 0.7% 17.7%

Notice that from 5 to 9 to zero to 4, Prods take a nice decline and no religion takes a huge increase, prods lose the same amount no religion gains whereas Catholics are basically the same?

Also look at national identity and religion:

No religion: 55.9% British, 35.2% NI, 14 Irish


Therefore it seems reasonable to conclude that these lads who choose no religion are culturally from the PUL community and staunch British citizens

The myth of Catholic domination has been exposed. Increasing birth rates among the prods along with increasingly religiosity among Catholic women will no doubt further temper this.

This isnt an anti-Catholic thread, as I love Catholic people but am merely pointing out that Prods aren't going anywhere.

Regardless of the morality or lack thereof of partition originally, that was over a century ago now and the Ulster people have been living here before yanks arrived in the states. Combined with the fact 50% of Catholics are unionists, and theres no chance of a UI.
All the Catholics I know even after Brexit like their social benefits. So much for economic prosperity in a UI when people here enjoy the social services... I know most Scots wouldn't relocate to London just because its richer when ti has inferior social public services.

The IRAs and the Irish people were unfairly treated for very long, but now its time for people to calm down and wind their necks in and get on with it all. All the ridiculous nationalism in the 21st century. Now I don't think all patriotism is bad and in fact I am a patriot, but this world is always getting more globalised and we cant afford to go on about mandates of those who died decades ago. We must tear down the walls and integrate non-sectarian education, and promote non-sectarian Britishism. Many famous IRA volunteers grew up in houses with the queen's portrait on the wall.


I know that many republicans are deeply invested in the republican struggle and their heroes, but its time to put the idea of an all-island unitary state to rest. The Irish people will always have things in common across all borders, but that doesn't mean there has to be the same legislature, or courts or the president/PM.

The Irish CNR community must accept the queen and the reality of the 21st century.
That's quite a long winded rant, while there's a nugget of truth it's mostly pipe dreaming bullshit. The bit about nationalism is gas craic, it must have escaped your notice you lot are a tad more nationalistic than the "nationalists".
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,758
A commonly-spouted nationalist claim is that the noble, virile Catholic republicans are gonna outbreed the evil British hun planter invader black orangies luther-loving Presby invading colonist imperialist sectarian Britannic discriminatory oppressive alien foreign savage sash-wearing lambeg-drumming contraception-using immigrants from a land across the sea and then vote the republic into existence fulfilling the legacy of Plunkett, Pearse and Tone (the lundy he).

However does this hold up to scrutiny?

Age and religion

0 to 4
44.3% 31.7% 0.9% 23.2%
Catholic Prods Other No Religion

5 to 9
45.5% 36.1% 0.7% 17.7%

Notice that from 5 to 9 to zero to 4, Prods take a nice decline and no religion takes a huge increase, prods lose the same amount no religion gains whereas Catholics are basically the same?

Also look at national identity and religion:

No religion: 55.9% British, 35.2% NI, 14 Irish


Therefore it seems reasonable to conclude that these lads who choose no religion are culturally from the PUL community and staunch British citizens

The myth of Catholic domination has been exposed. Increasing birth rates among the prods along with increasingly religiosity among Catholic women will no doubt further temper this.

This isnt an anti-Catholic thread, as I love Catholic people but am merely pointing out that Prods aren't going anywhere.

Regardless of the morality or lack thereof of partition originally, that was over a century ago now and the Ulster people have been living here before yanks arrived in the states. Combined with the fact 50% of Catholics are unionists, and theres no chance of a UI.
All the Catholics I know even after Brexit like their social benefits. So much for economic prosperity in a UI when people here enjoy the social services... I know most Scots wouldn't relocate to London just because its richer when ti has inferior social public services.

The IRAs and the Irish people were unfairly treated for very long, but now its time for people to calm down and wind their necks in and get on with it all. All the ridiculous nationalism in the 21st century. Now I don't think all patriotism is bad and in fact I am a patriot, but this world is always getting more globalised and we cant afford to go on about mandates of those who died decades ago. We must tear down the walls and integrate non-sectarian education, and promote non-sectarian Britishism. Many famous IRA volunteers grew up in houses with the queen's portrait on the wall.


I know that many republicans are deeply invested in the republican struggle and their heroes, but its time to put the idea of an all-island unitary state to rest. The Irish people will always have things in common across all borders, but that doesn't mean there has to be the same legislature, or courts or the president/PM.

The Irish CNR community must accept the queen and the reality of the 21st century.
I agree to the extent that I think the "rush to unity" being urged by Sinn Fein is not a good idea, and their poor poll showing the the ROI confirms that. The idea is not resonating in the South, who are pre-occupied by the uncertainties of Brexit, and do not want another variable thrown into the mix.

The dust of Brexit has to settle before the Unity question can be looked at. I think most of the population of the ROI feel neutral and pragmatic about it - something they support in the fullness of time, but not right now. It could easily be a Brexit in reverse - seemingly simple, but in the end a complex structure with dangerous trapdoors.

The OP is also right in that Unity should not be conceived as a unitary state ruled from Dublin - there would need to be devolution to Belfast on the lines of devolved government from London to Scotland.
 

firefly123

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2009
Messages
27,975
If the north does remain in the UK but with a firm "nationalist" majority then as it stands Sinn Fein will be running the place.

Can't see that going down well with some.

Of course you can always avoid such humiliation by unifying with the south where Sinn Fein are a minor party.

Decisions. Decisions
 

firefly123

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2009
Messages
27,975
I agree to the extent that I think the "rush to unity" being urged by Sinn Fein is not a good idea, and their poor poll showing the the ROI confirms that. The idea is not resonating in the South, who are pre-occupied by the uncertainties of Brexit, and do not want another variable thrown into the mix.

The dust of Brexit has to settle before the Unity question can be looked at. I think most of the population of the ROI feel neutral and pragmatic about it - something they support in the fullness of time, but not right now. It could easily be a Brexit in reverse - seemingly simple, but in the end a complex structure with dangerous trapdoors.

The OP is also right in that Unity should not be conceived as a unitary state ruled from Dublin - there would need to be devolution to Belfast on the lines of devolved government from London to Scotland.
devolved to whom?
Bear in mind nationalists will be the majority in such a scenario.
Do unionists really want to be subject to a devolved assembly dominated by nationalists, many of whom have a beef with what went on in the past?
Or would they prefer to be part of a larger grouping the vast majority of who will bend over backwards to not offend etc.

Also if you devolved the north do you simply select the original 1920s border or do you make it all of Ulster or do create a special unionist enclave in the north east?
 

ruserious

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 3, 2011
Messages
29,090
If the Union’s position is being determined by the “staunch British citizen values” of 0-4 year olds, we know our day has come.
 

ruserious

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 3, 2011
Messages
29,090
I agree to the extent that I think the "rush to unity" being urged by Sinn Fein is not a good idea, and their poor poll showing the the ROI confirms that. The idea is not resonating in the South, who are pre-occupied by the uncertainties of Brexit, and do not want another variable thrown into the mix.

The dust of Brexit has to settle before the Unity question can be looked at. I think most of the population of the ROI feel neutral and pragmatic about it - something they support in the fullness of time, but not right now. It could easily be a Brexit in reverse - seemingly simple, but in the end a complex structure with dangerous trapdoors.

The OP is also right in that Unity should not be conceived as a unitary state ruled from Dublin - there would need to be devolution to Belfast on the lines of devolved government from London to Scotland.
Not necessarily. We could develop a federal state.
It was pointed out recently that Unionists may prefer a central government in Dublin as they would likely hold the balance of power in many cases unlike in a SF dominated autonomous council in Stormont.
 

Supra

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 31, 2015
Messages
2,167
The IRAs and the Irish people were unfairly treated for very long, but now its time for people to calm down and wind their necks in and get on with it all. All the ridiculous nationalism in the 21st century. Now I don't think all patriotism is bad and in fact I am a patriot, but this world is always getting more globalised and we cant afford to go on about mandates of those who died decades ago. We must tear down the walls and integrate non-sectarian education, and promote non-sectarian Britishism. Many famous IRA volunteers grew up in houses with the queen's portrait on the wall.
Here is the problem. Our differences are not so much about the past but about the future.
You are right about Patriotism. However, patriotism was merely a tool used by those who wanted to shape the future in whichever direction they preferred. For a long time it was such a successful tool that we are all now victims of that success and the progressive leaders are finding it difficult to move away from that patriotism, and bring us together into their desired future.
In saying that I do think the battle to remove patriotism from the argument is being won in the favour of Republicanism. Rather than patriotism being the base of argument it is now mostly politics. An example of how patriotism is referred back to is the ILA. We all know this is a red herring. While it is being pushed for or against by one and another, in real terms it is secondary.

As Patriotism is slowly replaced with capitalism as the main driver for change (or status quo equally) the birth rate ratios will have less and less of an impact.
 

ruserious

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Jan 3, 2011
Messages
29,090

A more scientific study of what the OP raises and well articulated reasons why the Union is not secure.
 

McSlaggart

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Joined
Dec 29, 2010
Messages
17,330
The OP is also right in that Unity should not be conceived as a unitary state ruled from Dublin - there would need to be devolution to Belfast on the lines of devolved government from London to Scotland.
Would you agree It would need to include at least Donegal in sending elected representatives to Belfast?
 

silverharp

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Joined
Jan 21, 2015
Messages
15,885
is there a relatively higher brain drain of Protestants versus Irish from NI? the call of blighty and all that?
 

APettigrew92

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Aug 4, 2011
Messages
2,678
is there a relatively higher brain drain of Protestants versus Irish from NI? the call of blighty and all that?
It would seem that the proliferation of "Lundys" is growing.

What many Northern Unionists forget is that Carson and Craig were seduced primarily by the economic argument of the Union. When they refused to join - while threatening Civil War - Britain was the pre-eminent world power.

Ever since WW2 and the "shock therapy" of Thatcherite economics, the North has suffered irreversible economic decline and stagnation. The prosperity brought by the GFA and the improvement of living standards on both side of the invisible divide is seeming to have its way with pragmatic individuals who are now well aware that no such "Rome Rule" repression awaits them.

Laughably spineless and gutless leadership? Of course. Nothing they're not used to from Westminster.

Northern Ireland's future is within the EU. Economic prosperity is the order of the day and there'll be none of that in Brexit UK.
 

Ireniall

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Joined
Oct 7, 2011
Messages
8,149
It would seem that the proliferation of "Lundys" is growing.

What many Northern Unionists forget is that Carson and Craig were seduced primarily by the economic argument of the Union. When they refused to join - while threatening Civil War - Britain was the pre-eminent world power.

Ever since WW2 and the "shock therapy" of Thatcherite economics, the North has suffered irreversible economic decline and stagnation. The prosperity brought by the GFA and the improvement of living standards on both side of the invisible divide is seeming to have its way with pragmatic individuals who are now well aware that no such "Rome Rule" repression awaits them.

Laughably spineless and gutless leadership? Of course. Nothing they're not used to from Westminster.

Northern Ireland's future is within the EU. Economic prosperity is the order of the day and there'll be none of that in Brexit UK.
Yes. Brexit has made me realise how the Unionists must have felt about Ireland creating barriers with the rest of the UK by seeking Home Rule. The UK had been a huge success for them giving them 80% of the Irish industrial output. The EU has now been a similar success for us and I can only imagine what I would feel if we were still part of the UK and being forced out by Brexit -voting Englishmen. Much of our problem on this island has simply been an unfortunate set of circumstances.
 

DJP

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Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
12,600
A commonly-spouted nationalist claim is that the noble, virile Catholic republicans are gonna outbreed the evil British hun planter invader black orangies luther-loving Presby invading colonist imperialist sectarian Britannic discriminatory oppressive alien foreign savage sash-wearing lambeg-drumming contraception-using immigrants from a land across the sea and then vote the republic into existence fulfilling the legacy of Plunkett, Pearse and Tone (the lundy he).

However does this hold up to scrutiny?

Age and religion

0 to 4
44.3% 31.7% 0.9% 23.2%
Catholic Prods Other No Religion

5 to 9
45.5% 36.1% 0.7% 17.7%

Notice that from 5 to 9 to zero to 4, Prods take a nice decline and no religion takes a huge increase, prods lose the same amount no religion gains whereas Catholics are basically the same?

Also look at national identity and religion:

No religion: 55.9% British, 35.2% NI, 14 Irish


Therefore it seems reasonable to conclude that these lads who choose no religion are culturally from the PUL community and staunch British citizens


The myth of Catholic domination has been exposed. Increasing birth rates among the prods along with increasingly religiosity among Catholic women will no doubt further temper this.

This isnt an anti-Catholic thread, as I love Catholic people but am merely pointing out that Prods aren't going anywhere.

Regardless of the morality or lack thereof of partition originally, that was over a century ago now and the Ulster people have been living here before yanks arrived in the states. Combined with the fact 50% of Catholics are unionists, and theres no chance of a UI.
All the Catholics I know even after Brexit like their social benefits. So much for economic prosperity in a UI when people here enjoy the social services... I know most Scots wouldn't relocate to London just because its richer when ti has inferior social public services.

The IRAs and the Irish people were unfairly treated for very long, but now its time for people to calm down and wind their necks in and get on with it all. All the ridiculous nationalism in the 21st century. Now I don't think all patriotism is bad and in fact I am a patriot, but this world is always getting more globalised and we cant afford to go on about mandates of those who died decades ago. We must tear down the walls and integrate non-sectarian education, and promote non-sectarian Britishism. Many famous IRA volunteers grew up in houses with the queen's portrait on the wall.


I know that many republicans are deeply invested in the republican struggle and their heroes, but its time to put the idea of an all-island unitary state to rest. The Irish people will always have things in common across all borders, but that doesn't mean there has to be the same legislature, or courts or the president/PM.

The Irish CNR community must accept the queen and the reality of the 21st century.
I assume children aren't identified under national identity.
 

wombat

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Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
32,656
I think the OP shows the current sectarian mindset in the north. The assembly has been a failure as it has reinforced the sectarian division rather than achieving the aim of sharing power locally while parking the national question. Hume's idea of an agreed Ireland was a modern take on the ideals of the United Irishmen, its a pity people don't try it.
 

rem81

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 16, 2010
Messages
472
I think the OP shows the current sectarian mindset in the north. The assembly has been a failure as it has reinforced the sectarian division rather than achieving the aim of sharing power locally while parking the national question. Hume's idea of an agreed Ireland was a modern take on the ideals of the United Irishmen, its a pity people don't try it.
Wee huns like ye jaffas mon the jsa burning out cars creeeeew like yeooo
 


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