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The Myth Of Unionist Demographic Decline


Cai

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Not much thought went into that entirely groundless display of triumphalism I must say. :)
The DUP vote was up 1%, but the overall unionist vote nose-dived by 5.8%. By contrast the overall nationalist vote share fell by a mere .3%. Alliance and greens increased their share by 6%.

Well - according to Faha:

SF 158,579 +7,321 105 seats (no change)
SDLP 80,379 -5,224 59 seats (-7)
Aontu 7,459 +7,459 1 seat (+1)
PBP 9,478 +7,555 5 seats (+4)
Ind Nationalist 25,457 +5,617 15 seats (+6)
Total 281,352 +22,758 185 seats (+4)

Alliance 77,644 +35,858 53 seats (+21)
Green 14,284 +7,930 8 seats (+4)

UUP 94,381 -6,994 75 seats (-13)
DUP 161,061 +16,175 122 seats (-8)
TUV 17,586 -10,575 6 seats (-7)
PUP 5,338 -7,215 3 seats (-1)
UKIP 2,925 -6,338 0 seats (-3)
Conservative 1,876 -651 0 seats
Ind Unionists 17,000 +6,190 8 seats (+3)
Total 300,167 -9,458 214 seats (-29)
 


raetsel

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Well - according to Faha:

SF 158,579 +7,321 105 seats (no change)
SDLP 80,379 -5,224 59 seats (-7)
Aontu 7,459 +7,459 1 seat (+1)
PBP 9,478 +7,555 5 seats (+4)
Ind Nationalist 25,457 +5,617 15 seats (+6)
Total 281,352 +22,758 185 seats (+4)

Alliance 77,644 +35,858 53 seats (+21)
Green 14,284 +7,930 8 seats (+4)

UUP 94,381 -6,994 75 seats (-13)
DUP 161,061 +16,175 122 seats (-8)
TUV 17,586 -10,575 6 seats (-7)
PUP 5,338 -7,215 3 seats (-1)
UKIP 2,925 -6,338 0 seats (-3)
Conservative 1,876 -651 0 seats
Ind Unionists 17,000 +6,190 8 seats (+3)
Total 300,167 -9,458 214 seats (-29)
Thanks. I had a feeling that other independent nationalist-leaning candidates did especially well but didn't think it worth the effort to investigate further. I never attach too much weight to council elections so what would be the point? When traditional nationalist parties lose seats to a 'local issues candidate' as they did in the Sperrins where an environmental campaigner opposed to gold mining in the area took a seat from one of them, those votes are not lost to nationalism for the next assembly election.
 

Barroso

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I've bent over backwards here to try and avoid using sectarian tags, and not to tag parties with labels that they don't own for themselves. What I found interesting is what is going on in the lower decks, where 'unionists' are down 2 parties and 'alternatives', 'nationalists' and 'socialists' are up 2. Independents and Greens have pushed the TUV down the table, and PBP have moved from the bottom to 9th place as the 8th largest party, with Aontú and the CCLA replacing NI21 and the NIC. I've added the Alliance Party and the Alliance Party + All Independents totals to the definitive 'Nationalist' and 'Unionist' totals from 2014 and 2019, and came across some extremely interesting results..

2014 Local Elections:

1. DUP: 130
2. SF: 105
3. UUP: 88
4. SDLP: 66
5. Alliance: 32
6. TUV: 13
7. Independents: 12
8. UKIP: 5
9. Greens: 4
10. PUP: 4
11. NI21: 1
12. NIC: 1
13. PBP: 1
Aontú: 0
CCLA: 0

2019 Local Elections:

1. DUP: 122
2. SF: 105
3. UUP: 75
4. SDLP: 59
5. Alliance: 53
6. Independents: 21
7. Greens: 8
8. TUV: 6
9. PBP: 5
10. PUP: 3
11. UKIP: 3
12. Aontú: 1
13. CCLA: 1
NI21: 0
NIC: 0


A.1 - Total Unionist 2014:

DUP: 130
UUP: 88
TUV: 13
PUP: 4
UKIP: 5
NI21: 1
NIC: 1
242

Total Unionist 2014: 242
+ Alliance: 32
274

Total Unionist 2014: 242
Alliance: 32
+ All Independents: 12
286

B.1 - Total Unionist 2019:

DUP: 122
UUP: 75
TUV: 6
PUP: 3
UKIP: 3
NI21: 0
NIC: 0
209

Total Unionist 2019: 209
+ Alliance: 53
262

Total Unionist 2019: 209
Alliance: 53
+ All Independents: 21
283


A.2 - Total Nationalist 2014:

SF: 105
SDLP: 66
Greens: 4
PBP: 1
176

Total Nationalist 2014: 176
+ Alliance: 32
208

Total Nationalist 2014: 176
Alliance: 32
+ All Independents: 12
220

B.2 - Total Nationalist 2019:

SF: 105
SDLP: 59
Greens: 8
PBP: 5
Aontú: 1
CCLA: 1
179

Total Nationalist 2014: 179
+ Alliance: 53
232

Total Nationalist 2014: 179
Alliance: 53
+ All Independents: 21
253

The Unionists had a clear majority in 2014, which is now gone without the Alliance Party, even with the inclusion of all of the Independents, and it's an absolute that Independents who stood on Labour, Nationalist, Republican and Socialist tickets were elected.

The second major finding is that Nationalists inclusive of the Alliance Party vote, now have a majority at local level, even in the absence of all of the aforementioned absolutes.
I'd be interested in your sources, as the BBc has UKIP at 0, not 3.
 

Barroso

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You’ll have a nationalist majority in the voting population in the next few years.

Differential turnout between age groups means that it’ll tale a little longer for that to show up in voting patterns in all probability.
Not necessarily.
The point I was making is that there is a large group in the middle who regardless of their CNR/PULL background could be lost entirely to the original tribe, and who are currently finding political expression in Alliance and the Greens.
 

Antóin Mac Comháin

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I'd be interested in your sources, as the BBc has UKIP at 0, not 3.
I sourced the stats from wiki, when it was approximately 95% complete. There's still a few loose ends that need to be tided up, ach seo mar atá faoi lathair: 2019 Northern Ireland local elections. The first preferences party votes haven't been allocated so far, but it will be interesting to re-visit the post in a day or two, when more data becomes available. I think most people settled on 33 Unionist seats lost, which means they are now 23 seats shy of the 232 seats needed for a majority. How would the vote have transferred to seats in the Assembly and General Elections?

- The elimination of the UKIP would make a bad story a lot worse, as alongside the NIC and NI21, it would mean that 3 different Unionist Parties have lost all representation, which limits the potential of the DUP and the UUP to form alliances.

- In 2014, the DUP and the UUP controlled 47.1% of councillors and that was increased to 52.1% when the smaller unionist parties were factored into the equation. That particular percentage has decreased significantly to a combined DUP and UUP percentage of 42.6%.

- Nationalists and Unionists have majorities in 9 constituencies each, but pay attention to the map below the seat count (On the right hand-side): 2017 Northern Ireland Assembly election. The new Independent, Alliance Party, Green Party, and People Before Profit boxes alongside the current Provisional Sinn Féin and the Nationalist SDLP boxes, means that the balance of power would have transferred to 11-13 Nationalist.

General Election:

DUP36.0%
Sinn Féin29.4%
SDLP11.7%
UUP10.3%
Alliance7.9%
Greens0.9%
PBP0.7%
NI Cons0.5%
TUV0.4%
Other2.1%

Assembly Elections:

DUP: 28.1%
Sinn Féin: 27.9%
SDLP: 11.9%
UUP: 12.9%
Alliance Party: 9.1%

Local Election:

DUP: 130-122; 23.1%-24.1%
Sinn Féin: 105-105; 24.1%-23.2%
UUP: 88-75; 16.1%-14.1%
SDLP: 66-59; 13.6%-12.0%
Alliance Party: 32-53; 6.7%-11.5%

Aontú: 0-1; 0.3%
Green Party: 4-8; 0.8%
People Before Profit: 1-5; 0.3%
Independents: 12-21; 4.8%

TUV: 13-6; 4.5%
PUP: 4-3; 2.0%
UKIP: 5-3; 1.4%
NI21: 1-0; 1.8%
NI Conservatives 1-0; 0.4%


But this is the rub of it, where are those local votes going to return from at the Assembly and General Elections? We know where the 6.2% Independent, Aontú, Green Party, Cross-Community Labour Alternative and People Before Profit vote is heading, if we are in doubt of where the 11.5% Alliance Party vote is heading, and it's not in the direction of the DUP and the Tories..
 
Last edited:

Barroso

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I sourced the stats from wiki, when it was approximately 95% complete.

....

- The elimination of the UKIP would make a bad story a lot worse, as alongside the NIC and NI21, it would mean that 3 different Unionist Parties have lost all representation, which limits the potential of the DUP and the UUP to form alliances.
But it’s not “would”; they have been eliminated. Those three parties have lost their representation entirely.

....

But this is the rub of it, where are those local votes going to return from at the Assembly and General Elections? We know where the 6.2% Independent, Aontú, Green Party, Cross-Community Labour Alternative and People Before Profit vote is heading, if we are in doubt of where the 11.5% Alliance Party vote is heading, and it's not in the direction of the DUP and the Tories.
Looking at the schools’ census, there are substantial numbers of Catholic children attending almost all of the integrated schools, and many of them are in non-nationalist areas.

I suspect that many people from a CNR background in those areas have for years put themselves down in the census as no religion/not stated, and up to now have not bothered voting, leaving us with the impression that there are no nationalists, not even the softest kind in for instance, Bangor, or Carrickfergus or Larne etc.

I also suspect that this cohort has started coming out and now vote for Alliance, in the knowledge that their vote may well now help oust a unionist or two.

To the extent that I am right in this, it is clear that those votes will never make their way across the divide to the DUPes or the UUPs.
 

McSlaggart

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Not necessarily.
The point I was making is that there is a large group in the middle who regardless of their CNR/PULL background could be lost entirely to the original tribe, and who are currently finding political expression in Alliance and the Greens.

Its not about tribe just about people making a rational choice as to how they wish their country to be run. The big change with Brexit is that its now a choice between the UK and EU.
 

Mickeymac

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Its not about tribe just about people making a rational choice as to how they wish their country to be run. The big change with Brexit is that its now a choice between the UK and EU.

Scotland and NE Ireland had a choice but England ignored their choice and decided to drag them out regardless.
 

Glenshane4

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That is a bit of an oxymoron, the victims of tyranny will decide if its a shallow grave or a ditch? Did you ever get your pocket money back?
So you have resorted to personal insult. Typical Stater.
 

Oliver Cromwell McIvor

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Glenshane what is your opinion on the growth of Islam in the Free State?
 

Glenshane4

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[QUOTE="Oliver Cromwell McIvor, post: 12655841, member: 52187"

Glenshane what is your opinion on the growth of Islam in the Free State?
[/QUOTE]

If some natives of Eire become Moslems, that is their business. Citizens of a democracy should have a right to choose - so long as they do not infiltrate their children into Catholic schools and then try to use those children as a spearhead to dilute the Catholicism of the school.

If foreign Moslems are settling in Eire, I think you Staters are being foolish when you allow that infiltration. Likewise if foreign Catholics are settling in Eire. BUT, BUT, BUT the immigration laws of the Eire republic are none of my business just as the immigration laws of the USA are no business of President Higgins or of the editor of the Irish Times. And the UK leaving the EU is no business of the people of Eire.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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A commonly-spouted nationalist claim is that the noble, virile Catholic republicans are gonna outbreed the evil British hun planter invader black orangies luther-loving Presby invading colonist imperialist sectarian Britannic discriminatory oppressive alien foreign savage sash-wearing lambeg-drumming contraception-using immigrants from a land across the sea and then vote the republic into existence fulfilling the legacy of Plunkett, Pearse and Tone (the lundy he).

However does this hold up to scrutiny?

Age and religion

0 to 4
44.3% 31.7% 0.9% 23.2%
Catholic Prods Other No Religion

5 to 9
45.5% 36.1% 0.7% 17.7%

Notice that from 5 to 9 to zero to 4, Prods take a nice decline and no religion takes a huge increase, prods lose the same amount no religion gains whereas Catholics are basically the same?

Also look at national identity and religion:

No religion: 55.9% British, 35.2% NI, 14 Irish


Therefore it seems reasonable to conclude that these lads who choose no religion are culturally from the PUL community and staunch British citizens

The myth of Catholic domination has been exposed. Increasing birth rates among the prods along with increasingly religiosity among Catholic women will no doubt further temper this.

This isnt an anti-Catholic thread, as I love Catholic people but am merely pointing out that Prods aren't going anywhere.

Regardless of the morality or lack thereof of partition originally, that was over a century ago now and the Ulster people have been living here before yanks arrived in the states. Combined with the fact 50% of Catholics are unionists, and theres no chance of a UI.
All the Catholics I know even after Brexit like their social benefits. So much for economic prosperity in a UI when people here enjoy the social services... I know most Scots wouldn't relocate to London just because its richer when ti has inferior social public services.

The IRAs and the Irish people were unfairly treated for very long, but now its time for people to calm down and wind their necks in and get on with it all. All the ridiculous nationalism in the 21st century. Now I don't think all patriotism is bad and in fact I am a patriot, but this world is always getting more globalised and we cant afford to go on about mandates of those who died decades ago. We must tear down the walls and integrate non-sectarian education, and promote non-sectarian Britishism. Many famous IRA volunteers grew up in houses with the queen's portrait on the wall.


I know that many republicans are deeply invested in the republican struggle and their heroes, but its time to put the idea of an all-island unitary state to rest. The Irish people will always have things in common across all borders, but that doesn't mean there has to be the same legislature, or courts or the president/PM.

The Irish CNR community must accept the queen and the reality of the 21st century.

I should like it if the OPer could expand further on the bits I have emboldened and maybe provide some links or other backup, thanks.
 

Estragon

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you keep going on about this.
whether it's 50% +1 or 52/48 or whatever, the minority will be unhappy.
your appear to have no problem with that as long as it's not the Unionists who're unhappy.

you say -
"The problem is NI’s persistently tribal politics."

yeah - the problem with NI is NI.
They're all the same up there, right?
 

Roll_On

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Well - according to Faha:

SF 158,579 +7,321 105 seats (no change)
SDLP 80,379 -5,224 59 seats (-7)
Aontu 7,459 +7,459 1 seat (+1)
PBP 9,478 +7,555 5 seats (+4)
Ind Nationalist 25,457 +5,617 15 seats (+6)
Total 281,352 +22,758 185 seats (+4)

Alliance 77,644 +35,858 53 seats (+21)
Green 14,284 +7,930 8 seats (+4)

UUP 94,381 -6,994 75 seats (-13)
DUP 161,061 +16,175 122 seats (-8)
TUV 17,586 -10,575 6 seats (-7)
PUP 5,338 -7,215 3 seats (-1)
UKIP 2,925 -6,338 0 seats (-3)
Conservative 1,876 -651 0 seats
Ind Unionists 17,000 +6,190 8 seats (+3)
Total 300,167 -9,458 214 seats (-29)
This is quite stark for unionism and the next assembly election will only be worse for unionism. It's interesting times alright, what are unionists going to do?
 

Roll_On

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I think the Fleg on City Hall can come down permanently now, Nationalist parties + the Greens, led by Malachai O'Hare, have a voting majority and don't need to depend on Alliance anymore for compromise solutions
 

Mickeymac

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I think the Fleg on City Hall can come down permanently now, Nationalist parties + the Greens, led by Malachai O'Hare, have a voting majority and don't need to depend on Alliance anymore for compromise solutions

I was always a two flags or none guy, makes a lot of sense in a deeply divided community but I can see your point re the democratic end of the debate.
 

NMunsterman

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[QUOTE="Oliver Cromwell McIvor, post: 12655841, member: 52187"

Glenshane what is your opinion on the growth of Islam in the Free State?
If some natives of Eire become Moslems, that is their business. Citizens of a democracy should have a right to choose - so long as they do not infiltrate their children into Catholic schools and then try to use those children as a spearhead to dilute the Catholicism of the school.

If foreign Moslems are settling in Eire, I think you Staters are being foolish when you allow that infiltration. Likewise if foreign Catholics are settling in Eire. BUT, BUT, BUT the immigration laws of the Eire republic are none of my business just as the immigration laws of the USA are no business of President Higgins or of the editor of the Irish Times. And the UK leaving the EU is no business of the people of Eire.
[/QUOTE]


Dougal is yer man - Islam is one of his areas of expertise.
Drop him a line - he'll be delighted to hear from you - a true meeting of hearts and minds :

The Parochial House
Craggy Island
Co. Galway

Be sure and keep us posted as to his reply.
 

Newrybhoy

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I think the Fleg on City Hall can come down permanently now, Nationalist parties + the Greens, led by Malachai O'Hare, have a voting majority and don't need to depend on Alliance anymore for compromise solutions
Since when have the Greens been an Irish Republican Party?
 

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