The National Debt Clock

fat finger

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We are fortunate to be in a "honey spot" of low interest. But believe me once they start rising again, and the task of rolling over the bonds gets more and more expensive, the finmin and govt will eye the debt in a different way.
Once interest rates rise, taxpayers will rebel against borrowing money to pay for foreign aid, we just won't stand for that no more. Goverment then has the chance to say, OK, we're reneging on our foreign aid commitments, but we're using the borrowing instead for x, y or z in this country. As tax payers, that will help calm us down, but it won't make us happy, no sir.
 


riddles

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When can interest rates rise or has QE broken the normal fiscal cycle. It seems governments have decided to just get the books to a point where borrowing can be accessed. Like the penguins circled in the attic storm. Wondering who will fall first and what can they leverage from that fall. Will it be Italy, Ireland, Greece they what can the others write down as a result.

It seems either money becomes worthless or there’s a true crash where the full horrendous impact washes through the system. Which arguably should have happened in 07/08 which has subsequently been the largest spell of the ‘rich getting richer’ period in history. People joining the pyramid scheme are struggling as bad if not worse than ever before.
 

yosef shompeter

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Once interest rates rise, taxpayers will rebel against borrowing money to pay for foreign aid, we just won't stand for that no more. Goverment then has the chance to say, OK, we're reneging on our foreign aid commitments, but we're using the borrowing instead for x, y or z in this country. As tax payers, that will help calm us down, but it won't make us happy, no sir.
I agree. Of course we will be flogging the family silverware too: a) to pay off the interest rates and b) It's possible that we'll be hard put to roll-over the bonds if the interest demanded is too high and we will have to start thinking of shelling out capital repayments. So long as percentage GDP growth is greater than interest rates on the roll-over debt we are in a good place. But with Brexit, Trump Trade-wars, Tax harmonization, and whatever else bad news comes down the track, we could have our marathon sprint cut out for us -- :geek:
 

SamsonS

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Slightly off topic, but very little happening on economic forum so may as well post here..

Exchequer Returns for October came out yesterday, tax take is up 706m on target, mainly down to booming Corporation Tax receipts. Income tax is slightly up, VAT and stamp duty down.

On spending, broadly in line with target.
Deficit of 1.7b compared with 1.8b at the same time last year.
Looks like we'll have a year end surplus.

On unemployment CSO out this morning, unemployment revised down to 4.8%, 117k. 35k, of that are people under 25.

On debt, we redeemed 7b or so in October. Next redemptions in 2020 of 17b.
 

YouKnowWhatIMeanLike

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Slightly off topic, but very little happening on economic forum so may as well post here..

Exchequer Returns for October came out yesterday, tax take is up 706m on target, mainly down to booming Corporation Tax receipts. Income tax is slightly up, VAT and stamp duty down.

On spending, broadly in line with target.
Deficit of 1.7b compared with 1.8b at the same time last year.
Looks like we'll have a year end surplus.

On unemployment CSO out this morning, unemployment revised down to 4.8%, 117k. 35k, of that are people under 25.

On debt, we redeemed 7b or so in October. Next redemptions in 2020 of 17b.
Gross National Debt is up by €10bn to €215.7bn in 2019 from €206.2bn in 2018. that's almost 5% and still paying some €15m in interest payments every day on the national debt.
 

SamsonS

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Gross National Debt is up by €10bn to €215.7bn in 2019 from €206.2bn in 2018. that's almost 5% and still paying some €15m in interest payments every day on the national debt.
To the end of September yes, although in October it came down by 6 or 7b. Of course the net national debt is largely unchained.

15m in interest every day, again no disputing that, but lower than 2018 figure and much lower than the 20m a day it was costing us in 2014.
 

YouKnowWhatIMeanLike

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To the end of September yes, although in October it came down by 6 or 7b. Of course the net national debt is largely unchained.

15m in interest every day, again no disputing that, but lower than 2018 figure and much lower than the 20m a day it was costing us in 2014.
Every day interest lower due to fairy tale interest rates enforced by the ECB. Even a minimal uptick would rock the boat instantly. what's the cause of the swing in October to the tune of 6 or 7b?
 

SamsonS

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Every day interest lower due to fairy tale interest rates enforced by the ECB. Even a minimal uptick would rock the boat instantly. what's the cause of the swing in October to the tune of 6 or 7b?
The bond redeemed in October, had been borrowed in 09.
The ones we redeem next year 17b or so are 4 and 5%, so that's going be replaced with much cheaper money.
That's the end of it then though, then its replacing the cheaper money so the price of that replacement money remains to be seen.
The NTMA forecasts is that what we will be paying in interest in 2020-2024 is just under 4b per annum, compared with what we were paying, averaging close to 6.5b pa from 2013-2018.

On the debt projections for Gross Debt, 2018 was 206b, 2019 forecast at 204b, 2020 at 199b. However from 2021 iit is forecast to rise again and by 2024 to be 219b.
 

YouKnowWhatIMeanLike

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going by the numbers we end up at €209bn in debt in 2019 and not with 204bn as outlined in the forecast. 2020 will be a big year in the bond markets if all of these bonds are to be replaced. The ESFS maturity in 2021 will be interesting to deal with or has Regling flagged any response to repayment conditions on these loans? do they have a revised final maturity in the books now?
 

SamsonS

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going by the numbers we end up at €209bn in debt in 2019 and not with 204bn as outlined in the forecast. 2020 will be a big year in the bond markets if all of these bonds are to be replaced. The ESFS maturity in 2021 will be interesting to deal with or has Regling flagged any response to repayment conditions on these loans? do they have a revised final maturity in the books now?
For 2019 I'm going by NTMA forecast which is the same as budget forecast - the 204b. The 2020 figure only comes down casue we redeem 19b, of debt in 2020, which we have borrowed most of already. We have about 15b of that at the moment.
The 2021 figure goes up cause we are still borrowing but don't have any redemptions in 2021.

The Troika money, the EFSM ones come into play from 2027, the EFSF in 2029.

My view is that NTMA want to be rid of the UK bilateral and the FRNS by the end of 2021. That leaves the normal bonds and the EFSF/M, about 180b. I could imagine negotiations taking place over the EFSF/M after that, although extensions is probably the best they could hope for.
 

greencharade

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Gross National Debt is up by €10bn to €215.7bn in 2019 from €206.2bn in 2018. that's almost 5% and still paying some €15m in interest payments every day on the national debt.
We don't want €13 billion from Apple. No really, we don't.

We are happy to blow another €14 billion on early redemption of those floating rate notes. Yes, really, we are.

The only question that remains is - whose vassal state are we?
 

YouKnowWhatIMeanLike

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We don't want €13 billion from Apple. No really, we don't.

We are happy to blow another €14 billion on early redemption of those floating rate notes. Yes, really, we are.

The only question that remains is - whose vassal state are we?
Multinationals Inc. running for the exit before the infamous double Irish is coming to its final end.
 

shiel

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The present figures in the front of the op are as follows:

'The Republic of Ireland's current official national debt, in money terms, and as a percentage of national income (a measure of how much it is leveraged):

€ 185,425,101,690

Ireland's national debt (NTMA definition - see 'Composition of 'National Debt' table) as a percentage of 2017 GDP (€287.093 bn)* (on the left, below), and as a percentage of 2017 GNP (€234.915 bn)* (on the right):


GDP​
GNP​
64.5871204%
78.9328488%'

How do they compare with what is discussed above?
 

YouKnowWhatIMeanLike

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The present figures in the front of the op are as follows:

'The Republic of Ireland's current official national debt, in money terms, and as a percentage of national income (a measure of how much it is leveraged):

€ 185,425,101,690

Ireland's national debt (NTMA definition - see 'Composition of 'National Debt' table) as a percentage of 2017 GDP (€287.093 bn)* (on the left, below), and as a percentage of 2017 GNP (€234.915 bn)* (on the right):


GDP​
GNP​
64.5871204%
78.9328488%'
How do they compare with what is discussed above?
there is a direct connection between the two. lookit if the countries economic viability depends on how many iPhones Apple sells tax efficiently into the German, French or what have you markets by way of Irish tax innovation while the debt continuous to grow the link is more than obvious.
 

shiel

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there is a direct connection between the two. lookit if the countries economic viability depends on how many iPhones Apple sells tax efficiently into the German, French or what have you markets by way of Irish tax innovation while the debt continuous to grow the link is more than obvious.
The table at the front of the OP shows the debt declining.

Is that right or wrong?
 
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YouKnowWhatIMeanLike

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The table at the front of the OP shows the debt declining.

Is that right or wrong?
since the OP asks for a review of the debt figures in 2020 and reports a debt to the tune of 64,557,230,522 (64bn) in 2009 I'd say we can with any doubt clearly state that debt figures have (even considering inflation) at least tripled in the last 10 years. and that despite the stealthy transformation of the tax innovation hype to a loophole economy.
 


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