The National Debt Clock

Ardillaun

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Yes. Wont see the the effect of the Nov redemptions and purchases til next month. You have to open the table link to see the cash balance and net position. Net debt end of October was 190.2b.
Lots of info in these posts, much of which I don’t fully understand. How worried should we be about future pensions etc.? Your editorializing is usually gentle for this place but you seem optimistic?
 
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SamsonS

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Pensions is a whole other problem. In both the pensions and debt situation there is no big bang solution that fixes the problem without causing untold other issues.
With the debt situation , the capital amount we owe , the 209b is not the whole matter, its all about whether we can continue to finance that much debt. That is then to do with cost of the interest - pay 2% on 100b or 1% on 200b costs you the same- the timing of redeeming money and that was a major worry in 2013/14, the performance of the economy and can the gov run in balance or with a surplus cause the interest is paid out of tax revenue.
In recent years, the actual amount of interest we had to pay has fallen cause of interest rates, from close to 6b to 4.5b. As tax take has increased in the same period it is a lower % of our tax is needed to pay for it.
Could we see them pay , say 1b a year off the capital? I don't see it happening, no political party advocating that.
Are we outta woods? Not yet. A serious upturn in interest rates means we are starting from a terrible position. Equally a shock to our economy, Brexit, tax changes etc would see us struggle. .
 

toughbutfair

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The thicko press and masses mean this is rarely discussed. The press sensationalise the minor homeless issue to make people forget the 99.9% who are fine.
 

shiel

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The reason we are overborrowed is that one political group was elected for five elections in a row post 1987.

They had their arses licked by media during that time.

All in the garden was rosy.

They increased government expenditure from 19bn in 1997 to 63 bn in 2009.

More than trebled in little over a decade

With the bail out of the banks that went to over 100bn in 2010.

Result bankruptcy.

Present government expenditure is 67 bn a six per cent increase in a decade and all hell is breaking loose.

Hypocrisy is too mild a word.
 

greencharade

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The thicko press and masses mean this is rarely discussed. The press sensationalise the minor homeless issue to make people forget the 99.9% who are fine.
Classic FG - up yours to the poor - I'm alright, jack.

Minor homeless issue - 10,000+ homeless? People lying all over our streets? Not seen before in this country. FG have a lot to answer for.

Or maybe that comment was just clickbait.
 

shiel

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Classic FG - up yours to the poor - I'm alright, jack.

Minor homeless issue - 10,000+ homeless? People lying all over our streets? Not seen before in this country. FG have a lot to answer for.

Or maybe that comment was just clickbait.
The present day housing, homeless, health service problems are due to the reckless decisions of the people who governed the country between 1987 and 2010 than to present day politicians.

They bankrupt the country in 2010 and all of us are dealing with the problems caused ever since.
 

YouKnowWhatIMeanLike

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Yes. Wont see the the effect of the Nov redemptions and purchases til next month. You have to open the table link to see the cash balance and net position. Net debt end of October was 190.2b.
so what's the position for

Cash and Other Liquid Short-term Investments (19.5bn)

Other Non-Liquid Financial Assets (2.2bn)

why is it listed to reduce the GGD? You could easily add all sort of state owned assets to the list.
 

SamsonS

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so what's the position for

Cash and Other Liquid Short-term Investments (19.5bn)

Other Non-Liquid Financial Assets (2.2bn)

why is it listed to reduce the GGD? You could easily add all sort of state owned assets to the list.
Its always listed. That's the national debt, same metrics used as when this thread start, the gross debt less the liquid and non liquid assets.

 

SamsonS

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https://www.ntma.ie/news/ntma-to-borrow-less-in-2020-than-in-2019

Update from NTMA on 2020 borrowing

NTMA Director of Funding and Debt Management Frank O’Connor said:

“The NTMA’s pre-funding strategy has given us significant flexibility entering 2020. Our opening cash balance is projected to be in excess of €15 billion, which means that despite facing redemptions totalling almost €20 billion, our funding requirement is lower than in previous years.

2020 marks the last year in which redemptions of significant scale – the debt chimneys that we have faced - fall due. Post 2020, our annual debt redemptions will be lower. This follows our programme of extending the average maturity of Irish government bonds, which has increased to close to 10 years and is now one of the longest average maturities in Europe.”
 

SamsonS

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End of 2019 Fiscal Monitor out this evening showing a surplus of 647m compared with 99m in 2018.

Taxes came in at 1.4b ahead of target and 3.8b higher than 2018, totalling 59.3b
Within the tax heads
Income tax came in on target 23b, 1.6b higher than 2018.
Corporation tax was 0.5b higher than 2018, but 1.4b ahead of target (budget 2019 said we'd collect less Corp Tax in 2019 than 2018).
Vat came in at 15b , on target and 880m up on 2018.
Excise was on target, 6b and 500m up on 2018.

On other revenue, about 5.1b, up about 350m from 2018 due to Central Bank profits.

On the Expenditure Side , 67.4b, was over target by 750m, and 4.4b higher than in 2018. The increase was made up of 3b on the current side and 1.4b on the capital side.
The 750m over target can be traced to Health , 3833m over budget (which for Health is not bad) DEASP 237m and Education 118m.
Deby servicing came in at 5.1b, dwon from 5.7b in 2018, but 300m higher than forecast.


Very good year - by comparison, in 2011 we had a deficit of 25b, and tax revenues of less than 35b!
 
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YouKnowWhatIMeanLike

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End of 2019 Fiscal Monitor out this evening showing a surplus of 647m compared with 99m in 2018.

Taxes came in at 1.4b ahead of target and 3.8b higher than 2018, totalling 59.3b
Within the tax heads
Income tax came in on target 23b, 1.6b higher than 2018.
Corporation tax was 0.5b higher than 2018, but 1.4b ahead of target (budget 2019 said we'd collect less Corp Tax in 2019 than 2018).
Vat came in at 15b , on target and 880m up on 2018.
Excise was on target, 6b and 500m up on 2018.

On other revenue, about 5.1b, up about 350m from 2018 due to Central Bank profits.

On the Expenditure Side , 67.4b, was over target by 750m, and 4.4b higher than in 2018. The increase was made up of 3b on the current side and 1.4b on the capital side.
The 750m over target can be traced to Health , 3833m over budget (which for Health is not bad) DEASP 237m and Education 118m.
Deby servicing came in at 5.1b, dwon from 5.7b in 2018, but 300m higher than forecast.


Very good year - by comparison, in 2011 we had a deficit of 25b, and tax revenues of less than 35b!
what's this, election teaser? motor tax comes in lower and PSE Kinsale Energy will run dry. What's the issue at Dublin Port, is that already a Brexit casualty? Health spending is out of control. 0.5bn on Housing is too little, too late. will have to be ramped up biggg time. hows Contribution to EU Budget coming in that low while tax rev is up by 5bn? black magic?
 

SamsonS

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what's this, election teaser? motor tax comes in lower and PSE Kinsale Energy will run dry. What's the issue at Dublin Port, is that already a Brexit casualty? Health spending is out of control. 0.5bn on Housing is too little, too late. will have to be ramped up biggg time. hows Contribution to EU Budget coming in that low while tax rev is up by 5bn? black magic?
Motor tax came in 14m lower than in 2018. Less new cars sold in 2019 than 2018. In % terms that's 14m from 976m , so about 1.4% down yoy.
In overall terms Motor Tax is less than 1b out of 59b taxes and is the only tax head that is down yoy.
By comparison, Income Tax is up 1.7b, or 8% up yoy.

PSE is down from 2.9m to 1.2m, or 1.7m. By comparision income from Central Bank coin issue is up 340m .
Overall non tax revenue is up 150m while Capital Receipts are down about 80m.

Health spending is over budget, no surprise, but its 2.3% over. For health that is actually an improvement.
Housing capital budget was overspent by 60m at 2.1b.

I cant see the EU contribution for yearly comparison but is it about 2.6b in 2019?
 

YouKnowWhatIMeanLike

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Motor tax came in 14m lower than in 2018. Less new cars sold in 2019 than 2018. In % terms that's 14m from 976m , so about 1.4% down yoy. In overall terms Motor Tax is less than 1b out of 59b taxes and is the only tax head that is down yoy. By comparison, Income Tax is up 1.7b, or 8% up yoy. PSE is down from 2.9m to 1.2m, or 1.7m. By comparision income from Central Bank coin issue is up 340m . Overall non tax revenue is up 150m while Capital Receipts are down about 80m. Health spending is over budget, no surprise, but its 2.3% over. For health that is actually an improvement. Housing capital budget was overspent by 60m at 2.1b. I cant see the EU contribution for yearly comparison but is it about 2.6b in 2019?
 

YouKnowWhatIMeanLike

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Contribution to EU Budget
2018 (2,519,250)
2019 (2,431,670)

5bn more in tax revenue and 100m euro less in EU budget contributions in 2019
 

shiel

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Motor tax came in 14m lower than in 2018. Less new cars sold in 2019 than 2018. In % terms that's 14m from 976m , so about 1.4% down yoy.
In overall terms Motor Tax is less than 1b out of 59b taxes and is the only tax head that is down yoy.
By comparison, Income Tax is up 1.7b, or 8% up yoy.

PSE is down from 2.9m to 1.2m, or 1.7m. By comparision income from Central Bank coin issue is up 340m .
Overall non tax revenue is up 150m while Capital Receipts are down about 80m.

Health spending is over budget, no surprise, but its 2.3% over. For health that is actually an improvement.
Housing capital budget was overspent by 60m at 2.1b.

I cant see the EU contribution for yearly comparison but is it about 2.6b in 2019?
Query:

Is 3833m overspend in health right?

You say that is 2.3% over.

Total spend in health is what?
 
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SamsonS

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Contribution to EU Budget
2018 (2,519,250)
2019 (2,431,670)

5bn more in tax revenue and 100m euro less in EU budget contributions in 2019
The net payment in 2019 will be higher, in 2018 that was 315m, higher than in 2016 and 2017. The gross figure is based on GNI, 1% of same, although Brexit could see that go up over time. At the same time the amount we receive is likely to reduce in light of Brexit and new CAP, so I would expect our net contribution to increase.
 

YouKnowWhatIMeanLike

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The net payment in 2019 will be higher, in 2018 that was 315m, higher than in 2016 and 2017. The gross figure is based on GNI, 1% of same, although Brexit could see that go up over time. At the same time the amount we receive is likely to reduce in light of Brexit and new CAP, so I would expect our net contribution to increase.
Ireland does not participate in certain justice and home affairs (JHA) policies of the EU and therefore Ireland's contribution to the EU budget is reduced by a few million. but the total amount to be paid by Ireland is based on VAT, TOR and other resources but mostly on GNI (some 80%). Let me guess, the domestic Irish economy is contracting?
 


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