The Nevada Caucus

Dame_Enda

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The live results page is up,


First results expected around 9.30 GMT.

A poll yesterday found Bloomberg down 3% to 12%. He is in third place behind Sanders and Biden. Buttigieg is in fifth place on around 11%.

Update: some "entrance polls" (not exit polls - so voters could change mind) in:


More polls: Around 30% call themselves "very liberal" and 36% "liberal" with another 30% or so being "moderates". Biden is in first place among moderates but only by a percentage or two, with Buttigieg and Sanders close behind. Sanders is on 52% among those calling themselves "very liberal". I think Sanders will win tonight.
 


Dame_Enda

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NYCKY

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I saw something earlier about AI predicting that Bernie would romp home, with about 30%, twice his nearest rival Buttigieg.
 

Breanainn

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Update we have a CNN entrance poll of candidate preferences:


Also around 25% of the voters are from union households.


Also, Hispanics are currently around 18% of the turnout, and Sanders is getting around half of them.

Surprising that only 18% of Nevadan caucusers are Hispanics, given the demographics of that state.
 

NYCKY

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Surprising that only 18% of Nevadan caucusers are Hispanics, given the demographics of that state.

A lot of them are probably too young to vote. What we hear a lot about is the Latino demographics nationwide but they generally skew younger.
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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A lot of them are probably too young to vote. What we hear a lot about is the Latino demographics nationwide but they generally skew younger.
Quoting and italicising the following information from the link:
  • The Hispanic population in Nevada is the 14th largest in the nation. About 789,000 Hispanics reside in Nevada, 1.4% of all Hispanics in the United States.
  • Nevada’s population is 28% Hispanic, the fifth largest Hispanic statewide population share nationally.
  • There are 328,000 Hispanic eligible voters in Nevada—the 13th largest Hispanic statewide eligible voter population nationally. California ranks first with 6.9 million.
  • Some 17% of Nevada eligible voters are Hispanic, the sixth largest Hispanic statewide eligible voter share nationally. New Mexico ranks first with 40%.
  • Some 42% of Hispanics in Nevada are eligible to vote, ranking Nevada 30th nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. By contrast, 81% of the state’s white population is eligible to vote.
 

McTell

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Meanwhile, good ole boy mike bloomberg is on the stump in texas, that has 262 delegates to nevada's 48.

Bloomberg could beat trump, sanders won't.
 

Dame_Enda

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Meanwhile, good ole boy mike bloomberg is on the stump in texas, that has 262 delegates to nevada's 48.

Bloomberg could beat trump, sanders won't.
All those NDAs (referred to by Warren, and which Bloomberg claims are just about people not liking jokes) will be a ticking timebomb if Bloomberg gets the nomination.
 

owedtojoy

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FiveThirtyEight projecting a big win for Sanders, though it is not clear how big (~40% is mentioned).

They reckon the win will give him a 50% chance roughly of winning the nomination on the first ballot.
 

raetsel

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Meanwhile, good ole boy mike bloomberg is on the stump in texas, that has 262 delegates to nevada's 48.

Bloomberg could beat trump, sanders won't.
I'm not sure Bloomberg can. Sanders very probably can't. It looks very much like the Democrats have forgotten the lessons learned from the 1972 campaign.
 

owedtojoy

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I'm not sure Bloomberg can. Sanders very probably can't. It looks very much like the Democrats have forgotten the lessons learned from the 1972 campaign.
1972 was 50 years ago ....

Ed Muskie was probably the best candidate Democrats could have chosen, but he was undermined by Republican ratf*cking. Google the "Canuck Letter", a forgery in which Muskie allegedly disrespected the French Canadian community. Some things never change.

But Muskie was not Joe Biden, McGovern was not Sanders, and Nixon was not Trump.

For example, Nixon was really popular in 1972. While he had escalated the Vietnam War, the American public believed that he was withdrawing and making a deal, which was true. The Economy was buoyant. The Watergate burglary took place in June, 1972, and Nixon's team managed to keep the story quiet (mostly) until after the election.

Nixon's Job Approval was well over 50%, about 10% higher than where Trump's is now.

McGovern also had a disaster in that his first VP pick, Senator Thomas Eagleton, turned out to have had serious mental health issues earlier in his career. In those days, such a revelation was poison. McGovern's poor due diligence, his initial backing of Eagleton, and his subsequent decision to drop him, just made him look bad.

 

Jack Walsh

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I'm not sure Bloomberg can. Sanders very probably can't. It looks very much like the Democrats have forgotten the lessons learned from the 1972 campaign.
Along with the good points made by Owed to demonstrate we are not dealing with anything like a 1972 scenario, let me also add

Mc Govern never got even within 15% of Nixon for the whole of 1972 and was often 30% behind in polls
Bernie beats Trump in almost every current (well rated) poll

Bernie (or any Dem) will not be trounced
He (or Biden or Bloomberg) will almost certainly get the largest vote ever recorded for any Presidential candidate in history
Maybe Trump can top it, I'd be doubtful he can but anyone expecting a massive rout just because it may well be Bernie, is almost certainly wrong
 

Jack Walsh

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Great night for Bernie
Ok night for Biden
Barely par for Buttigieg
Really poor night for Warren and Klobuchar
Time for Steyer to do the decent and bow out and get behind a candidate

Warren just like Harris 6 months ago, does not seem to have got any dividend for a big wow night at Debate
That might be good news for Bloomberg, in that the debate may not have materially damaged him, we'll see in coming days

It looks odds on Bernie with ether Biden or Bloomberg (probably not both) chasing him down the stretch
Warren is now almost out of it and the Klobuchar mini surge has petered out
 

benroe

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It looks odds on Bernie with ether Biden or Bloomberg (probably not both) chasing him down the stretch
Warren is now almost out of it and the Klobuchar mini surge has petered out
I'm picturing three old white men shuffling down a track in different directions :ROFLMAO:
 

Jack Walsh

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I'm picturing three old white men shuffling down a track in different directions :ROFLMAO:
There are 4 viable "old men" candidates vying for the Presidency
You seem to have forgotten the obese health time bomb 4th one
 

benroe

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There are 4 viable "old men" candidates vying for the Presidency
You seem to have forgotten the obese health time bomb 4th one
Thats a two horse race Jack, I'm talking about the qualifier between bleeding eyes, imminent coronary and non-disclosure.
 

silverharp

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its good that Trump is standing up for Bernie against the evil DNC, very Presidential
 

Jack Walsh

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Thats a two horse race Jack, I'm talking about the qualifier between bleeding eyes, imminent coronary and non-disclosure.

Mocking aspects of people's appearance, size, ethnicity or age?
Yet idolising this
1582463932015.jpeg


He's the first person you could call a shithead, and literally mean it!

You guys just don't do irony, do you?
 

silverharp

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like the banks in 09, Bernie has a heart that is too big to fail
 


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