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The People Have Spoken: "We want Change AND We want the EU". Time To Move On.

Pyewacket

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Actually , a deeper look at the Danish Elections challenges that perception.

The Social Democrats, seen as the big winners, actually only gained a single seat. The real big winners were the farther-left parties like the Red-Green Alliance, whose views on immigration are viewed from the perspective of human rights..

Immigration may not even have been the main issue - apparently, it was the Economy that determined this election. Voters just got fed up with the right and far-right supporting neo-liberal policies that attacked people's welfare entitlements.




The far-right are only fake opponents of neo-liberalism, just like Donald Trump in the end. They tried to steal liberal social policies and got found out.
The far right are shit heads and have no answers. They will be found out in two minutes if they ever get power. It will be a debacle, which is why I actually want BoJo to be PM, so two years down line the British will hang him from a lamp post.

But Neo-Liberalism gave these people their chance.

Social Democracy needs to come back with a good dose of Socialism. The Liberals, Neo-Liberals and their bastard sons, Libertarians, created this.
 


Kevin Parlon

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The far right are shit heads and have no answers. They will be found out in two minutes if they ever get power. It will be a debacle, which is why I actually want BoJo to be PM, so two years down line the British will hang him from a lamp post.

But Neo-Liberalism gave these people their chance.

Social Democracy needs to come back with a good dose of Socialism. The Liberals, Neo-Liberals and their bastard sons, Libertarians, created this.
A good dose of socialism. Yeah, that'll work. Who - exactly - are the far right in your opinion?
 

Kevin Parlon

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owedtojoy

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A good dose of socialism. Yeah, that'll work. Who - exactly - are the far right in your opinion?
Socialism, Kevin, but not as you think you know it. At a minimum, it will recognise that there is no such thing as a "free market", or that "free markets" so-called really work to the advantage of monopolies and cartels.

It will realise the need for a social safety net to release people from the fear of having to face poverty, homelessness and poor health, especially when very young or very old.

There is quite a ferment of ideas going on to the left, that is where the new solutions and innovations will arise. Like, for example, a tax on social media companies who (at the moment) harvest our data for free, and sell it for their own profit.

Anyone who is not centre-right is far-right: Vox, AfD, Wilders, Baudet, Salvini, Orban, and the like. I think the European electorates are realising these parties are just auctioning off populist anti-immigration policies and cultural hysteria to the highest neo-liberal bidder.

More or less what Donald Trump and his party are doing in the US. And as Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party in the UK, only the poor saps in the UK will not find out until after Brexit.
 

Kevin Parlon

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Socialism, Kevin, but not as you think you know it. At a minimum, it will recognise that there is no such thing as a "free market", or that "free markets" so-called really work to the advantage of monopolies and cartels.
This is a strawman Owed. Nowhere has actual free markets. The freest market is probably the US and the amount of red tape here is huge. The government is actively looking into Google and Facebook making noises about breaking them up.

It will realise the need for a social safety net to release people from the fear of having to face poverty, homelessness and poor health, especially when very young or very old.
Both centre-right parties in Ireland support the above and are not socialist.

There is quite a ferment of ideas going on to the left, that is where the new solutions and innovations will arise. Like, for example, a tax on social media companies who (at the moment) harvest our data for free, and sell it for their own profit.
Have you noticed that some countries invent the things everyone wants to use but Europe seems to focus instead on how to extract money from these companies rather than fostering their own. If you don't like their business model, don't use the product. Simple as that.

Anyone who is not centre-right is far-right: Vox, AfD, Wilders, Baudet, Salvini, Orban, and the like. I think the European electorates are realising these parties are just auctioning off populist anti-immigration policies and cultural hysteria to the highest neo-liberal bidder.
There's quite a mix there but I don't agree with your summary. Salvini (for example) is genuinely appalled at what was happening to his country (Have you been to Rome in the past 5 years?). You must realise that most of these people are as convinced as you are about how things should go. Don't make the mistake of assuming that because they think differently to you, they're all cynical populists. Because they aren't.
More or less what Donald Trump and his party are doing in the US. And as Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party in the UK, only the poor saps in the UK will not find out until after Brexit.
It will be very interesting to see how the UK turns out. It's not going to be the carcrash some are desperately hoping it will be.
 

owedtojoy

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This is a strawman Owed. Nowhere has actual free markets. The freest market is probably the US and the amount of red tape here is huge. The government is actively looking into Google and Facebook making noises about breaking them up.


Both centre-right parties in Ireland support the above and are not socialist.


Have you noticed that some countries invent the things everyone wants to use but Europe seems to focus instead on how to extract money from these companies rather than fostering their own. If you don't like their business model, don't use the product. Simple as that.


There's quite a mix there but I don't agree with your summary. Salvini (for example) is genuinely appalled at what was happening to his country (Have you been to Rome in the past 5 years?). You must realise that most of these people are as convinced as you are about how things should go. Don't make the mistake of assuming that because they think differently to you, they're all cynical populists. Because they aren't.

It will be very interesting to see how the UK turns out. It's not going to be the carcrash some are desperately hoping it will be.
Of course nowhere has free markets. That is the point. Free markers are an unattainable ideal pushed by the corporate class. Markets are skewed in favour of wealthy rent-seekers in the guise of de-regulation.

Centre-right parties in practice are neo-liberal. Neo-liberalism is Reagan-Thatcherism, both leaders of centre right parties. Both of their parties are now hacking at the social safety net of poorer citizens, in the interests of the better off.

Most populists are cynics buying people with their own money. Populism is a means to an end, a technique used by right or left, like Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. It is not a political philosophy.

I hope for no Brexit car-crash in the UK, because Ireland will be collateral damage. But I fear otherwise - in fact, there is no configuration of Brexit that does not wound Ireland in some way. The harder the Brexit, the worse it will be.
 

owedtojoy

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Neither Nigel Farage's Brexit Party, nor Poland's ruling party Law and Justice, will join Matthias Salvini's grouping of right-wing parties in the European Parliament.

Nigel Farage has not given a reason, but it may be that he fears joining such an alliance would anger Conservative and Labour supporters who voted for him.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of Law and Justice, specifically mentioned Germany's AfD and Marine Le Pen's RN as two parties they would refuse to sit with.

I presume that this is because Poland had no historical reason to love either German or Russian nationalism. It is well known that Marine Le Pen associates herself with the Russian President*, and is a creditor to a Russian bank.


Victor Orban has already distanced himself from Salvini's group, and seems to hope to rejoin the centre-right EPP, from which his party was suspended.

*In both Poland and Romania, two countries that have parts of Russia adjacent to them, Russia is considered the 2nd largest threat to Europe (after Islamic Terrorism). Probably, the Baltic States and Finland take a similar view, but no data is available.
 

Dame_Enda

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EU not listening to the Green message. They are suppressing the findings of emissions tests on a Porsche car. Porsche was already fined in the diesel emissions scandal.

 

Dame_Enda

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Nationalists have formed a new EP group called Identity and Democracy. It has 73 MEPs including Le Pen and Salvini.

 

owedtojoy

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Nationalists have formed a new EP group called Identity and Democracy. It has 73 MEPs including Le Pen and Salvini.

Basically the French and Italian far-right, with a scattering of others, including the German AfD.

Only a handful more than the Greens in total. ID are the 5th largest group in the EP.

Saw some of their launch on TV .... and showed their true colours immediately by calling on sanctions on Russia to be relaxed. A bit of toadying to the bare-chested One may go down well in some quarters, but will not attract the Poles, Baltic States, Romanians or Finns, who are not fooled that easily. No Russian loans for them.

Nigel Farage is not interested because Le Pen is toxic in the UK, whatever his sympathies with AfD. He wants the prestige of his own group, and his ego would never accept an Italian leader.

That is the trouble with Nationalism - no sense of community. Viktor Orban is keeping his distance, too.
 
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petaljam

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It will be very interesting to see how the UK turns out. It's not going to be the carcrash some are desperately hoping it will be.
I'd really love to know what you base this optimism on.

As someone from Northern Ireland, and with family and friends in professions likely to be affected in London and elsewhere, I would be very happy for there not to be a car crash. Unfortunately though, given how the Tories are behaving, a car crash looks to me to be likelier than a minor downturn. So tell me what I'm missing?
 

Kevin Parlon

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I'd really love to know what you base this optimism on.
A few things. In no particular order:
A belief that the EU is over-regulated and over-regulation (not to be confused with regulation) is bad for trade and enterprise. The ability to undo that will act as a boost. A belief the EU is choking enterprise with non-sensical displays of carbon piety from which the UK will now be unshackled (not to be confused with climate denial). If the UK can undo some of that nonsense, it will help. A belief that taken as a whole, the media and commentariat reaction to Brexit has been more heat than light with the downsides overplayed and upsides mostly ignored.

We don't need to fight over who's right or wrong. We're going to see it.
 

owedtojoy

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A few things. In no particular order:
A belief that the EU is over-regulated and over-regulation (not to be confused with regulation) is bad for trade and enterprise. The ability to undo that will act as a boost. A belief the EU is choking enterprise with non-sensical displays of carbon piety from which the UK will now be unshackled (not to be confused with climate denial). If the UK can undo some of that nonsense, it will help. A belief that taken as a whole, the media and commentariat reaction to Brexit has been more heat than light with the downsides overplayed and upsides mostly ignored.

We don't need to fight over who's right or wrong. We're going to see it.
How will the "UK unshackled" sell into the regulated EU market? The EU will obviously protect its own producers, and the UK may end up shut out of one of the biggest markets in the world.

Clearly, the US expect in their projected Agreement the sort of sub-regulation (like the notorious chlorinated chicken) that will make anything produced for the UK market unsaleable in the EU. That means a hard border in Ireland, and all the negative repercussions arising from it.

How many Agreements with non-EU countries are in the pipeline for the UK? To the best of my knowledge, two.

Loss of the UK market may hurt the EU, but EU believe that the situation will hurt the UK even more, with one exception - Ireland. This means that "no deal" is not a solution.

Incidentally, the Brexiteer UK has committed itself to zero carbon emissions by 2050.
 

owedtojoy

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Mathias Salvini gave an interview on Euronews this morning in which he said that his party would not be seeking for Italy to leave the EU.

Like Marine Le Pen, the goal of the ID group is Reform of the EU and weakening of its core functions. That is a legitimate goal and more attainable that EU destruction.

Salvini had a lot more to say about Italian budgetary issues and EU austerity - on which he is may not necessarily be wrong, and where he might find allies on the left.
 

McDave

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The centre has held, and not narrowly, but firmly and sufficiently. To an extent this was foretold.

And it may have been the first European Parliament election that was truly transnational.

View attachment 18318

Yes, Eurosceptic nationalist and far-right groupings (like Matthias Salvini's Lega) increased their vote share, but not enough to constitute a "wave". Liberals (like Macron's REM) and Greens had their own waves, of sorts. The two major blocs, European People's Party (composed of parties like Angela Merkel's CDU), and the Social Democrats (composed of partiies like Pedro Sanchez's Spanish Social Democrats) lost their majority, but have options of adding Liberals or Greens to their alliance.

In an organisation of nations, each is sovereign, but some of the sovereignty is "pooled", like contributions to a mutual fund. The simplest analogy is a military alliance that supports a grand strategy. The farthest you can get from that is the USA, where (in theory at least) the people are sovereign, not the states, and a central Federal Government acts and (where appropriate) delegates powers to the states.

More or less, the EU began as a Common Market with a pooled strategy over industrial goods, which grew into a Single Market for all output, with common standards and convergence for agricultural and industrial products. But the Union (now so named) has also moved inexorably along the route to being a Union of peoples, with a joint foreign policy and internal free movement, implying an equality among EU citizens. But, provoked by the Great Recession, and a Refugee Crisis in 2016, that has produced a reaction.

So, a shift, a change is sought in the EU. But change of what? And to what?

So what are the issues? The three top issues driving Europe are Islamic Radicalism, Migration and the Economy (in that order), see the above thread.

The Economy was the most important issue in Italy, Greece and Romania
Climate change is a major issue in Northern Europe (Germany, Denmark, Sweden,)
Russia in an issue for Poland and Romania (2nd in both), and probably in the Baltic states (data not available).

So there is no "one size fits all" panacea for Europe. Some want to undo even the Single Market (apparently), which seems like madness when China and the Unites States are starting to throw their weight around on Trade. Emanuel Macron, who will be an influencer in the new Parliament, wants to move along the route to a more federal arrangement, an EU of equal citizens. The future is open. But the EU has to move as its people want it to make a difference in their lives.
The basic European idea is sound. It has survived successive crises, systemic external attacks from the Ango-Saxon world and Russia, and huge instability on its eastern and southern frontiers. All this despite it being a relatively hard sell to the public, a public which has though in the round and persistently given a thumbs up.

Reasonable, moderate people recognise that there are no simple solutions in a complex, fraught world. They accept we’re probably better off pooling certain resources and powers, especially when confronted with the likes of the US, Russia and China. There are limits, but so far the EU hasn’t fundamentally overreached, not even on the quite worrisome issue of uncontrolled immigration, which incidentally centrist politicians are finally taking on board.

On the top three issues, I would say (in order):
1. Environment and abuse of natural resources;
2. Uncontrolled immigration; and
3. Fair distribution of infrastructure and limited wealth.

Deal with these and I’m guessing most EU electorates will accept their politicians are doing an acceptable job. In that light, populists and extremists on the right and left will have a diminishing audience to appeal to.
 

McDave

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Mathias Salvini gave an interview on Euronews this morning in which he said that his party would not be seeking for Italy to leave the EU.

Like Marine Le Pen, the goal of the ID group is Reform of the EU and weakening of its core functions. That is a legitimate goal and more attainable that EU destruction.

Salvini had a lot more to say about Italian budgetary issues and EU austerity - on which he is may not necessarily be wrong, and where he might find allies on the left.
This is evidence of how the electorate is essentially at the centre. The moderate centre sees the EU as a force for stability.

Consequently, Le Pen’s hostility to the Euro and EU cost her the presidency against Macron. I have a suspicion her fake Faragian/Eurosceptic ‘reform the EU from within’ stance will cost her the next election too. On a much smaller scale here, it certainly didn’t do SF any favours in the last EP elections.
 

McDave

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A few things. In no particular order:
A belief that the EU is over-regulated and over-regulation (not to be confused with regulation) is bad for trade and enterprise. The ability to undo that will act as a boost. A belief the EU is choking enterprise with non-sensical displays of carbon piety from which the UK will now be unshackled (not to be confused with climate denial). If the UK can undo some of that nonsense, it will help. A belief that taken as a whole, the media and commentariat reaction to Brexit has been more heat than light with the downsides overplayed and upsides mostly ignored.

We don't need to fight over who's right or wrong. We're going to see it.
Generally speaking I think European consumers are happy with the standards the regulation of goods and services brings. I’d suspect consumers and voters would not accept reductions in quality and safety that come with essential regulations bargained across all Europe's economies.

At any rate, I’m not convinced Brexit is going to happen. I think ever more people there are realising they’ve been sold a pup, and that leaving the EU will leave them highly exposed on the world stage, chasing the market to the bottom on quality, pay and workers’ rights.
 

petaljam

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A few things. In no particular order:
A belief that the EU is over-regulated and over-regulation (not to be confused with regulation) is bad for trade and enterprise. The ability to undo that will act as a boost. A belief the EU is choking enterprise with non-sensical displays of carbon piety from which the UK will now be unshackled (not to be confused with climate denial). If the UK can undo some of that nonsense, it will help. A belief that taken as a whole, the media and commentariat reaction to Brexit has been more heat than light with the downsides overplayed and upsides mostly ignored.

We don't need to fight over who's right or wrong. We're going to see it.
This belief that it is over regulated though - could you give some examples of where, say, the USA gets it right and the EU gets it wrong?

For instance, food safety regulations: the USA has far more deaths from contaminated poultry than the EU - and that's with their chlorine-washing of chicken which is not without its own potential health risks.

I'd put a good deal of money on a bet that this is in fact the norm, and that the vast majority of "extra" regulations that the EU has put in place compared to the US or China can be justified as being in the interests of the consumer. And the rest will have other reasons such as worker safety. Obviously some businesses don't like that. Doesn't mean we should do away with the regulation though.

Oh and as was pointed out above, Brexiters have given no indication of wanting to row back on the zero carbon emissions policy, in fact they're proud of the U.K.'s lead in that - although most people who hold the UK up as a model in that regard ignore the fact that this is because they no longer produce very much, and have outsourced nearly all their "dirty" industries like electronics to China.
 

owedtojoy

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This is evidence of how the electorate is essentially at the centre. The moderate centre sees the EU as a force for stability.

Consequently, Le Pen’s hostility to the Euro and EU cost her the presidency against Macron. I have a suspicion her fake Faragian/Eurosceptic ‘reform the EU from within’ stance will cost her the next election too. On a much smaller scale here, it certainly didn’t do SF any favours in the last EP elections.
Good points. It is a good summary of what I have been maintaining, against opposition, all through this thread.
 


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