The recent end of global economic expansion? New book

feargach

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Richard Heinberg has a new book out in July.

It's called The End of Growth

His point is "Economic growth as we have known it is over and done with."

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-12/end-growth

From a review:
The “growth” we are talking about consists of the expansion of the overall size of the economy (with more people being served and more money changing hands) and of the quantities of energy and material goods flowing through it.
...

This is not to say the U.S. or the world as a whole will never see another quarter or year of growth relative to the previous quarter or year. However, when the bumps are averaged out, the general trend-line of the economy (measured in terms of production and consumption of real goods) will be level or downward rather than upward from now on.
It won't be even. Some regions will still have some growth, some won't. But in the aggregate, measured over years, it'll be flat or downwards.

The guy has a point, I'd say. Any Chinese "growth" we've seen in the world since the Lehman's debacle was counterweighed by the immense career destruction in the USA and EU. The assertion that global crude oil production peaked at 70m bpd in 2006 hasn't been convincingly disproven anywhere.
 


feargach

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You still think money equals wealth?
Do you still beat your wife? ;)

Anyone willing to address the OP? The core fact is that the small growth in the developing world is dwarfed by the concurrent collapse and deficits in the EU, Japan and USA.

What is the White Knight, the 7th Cavalry, the Deus ex machina that might intervene to bring global expansion back onto the scene? I don't see anything plausible in evidence.
 

Panopticon

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Technology changes and growth occurs as a result that is larger in proportion to the extra inputs. We have more economic activity per person and per input than we used to have in 1800. This is the source of real economic growth in the last two decades, not just the extra oil we use.
 

feargach

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Technology changes and growth occurs as a result that is larger in proportion to the extra inputs. We have more economic activity per person and per input than we used to have in 1800. This is the source of real economic growth in the last two decades, not just the extra oil we use.
That's just sloganeering. There's no content there to argue against.

Ireland is far more technologically advanced than it was in 1997, but we've gone backwards economically.

The same is true of the USA. And Japan.

I'm all for technology, but it has real limits. Without cheap oil, technology is powerless to prevent median living standards from plummeting as they have been across all the democratic world.
 


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