The Showdown: Donald Trump vs Joe Biden for US President 2020



owedtojoy

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StateDatePollsterSampleTypeDemPrezWinnerMargin
Ga.JUN 25-26, 2020B
Public Policy Polling*
734VBiden49%45%TrumpBiden+4
Pa.JUN 15-23, 2020C
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
715LVBiden46%41%TrumpBiden+5

No let-up yet in poor polling results for the Trump campaign.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Makes you wonder whether Trump and Biden were assessed psychologically for fitness to serve as President which one of them would pass. I doubt Trump would pass an evaluation for traffic warden.

The guy has been blurting his childish psychology all over the world news for years now. And yet no one seems to want to point out that there is someone in the White House with some really severe issues with reality.
 

owedtojoy

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The "Pundit Consensus" puts Joe Biden only 22 votes short, assuming the EVs follow the colour.

consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast.png


He could lose Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, and still win by taking Arizona, Wisconsin and the single EV in the 2nd Nebraska Congressional District.

If he won those two States, and the Nebraska EV went to Trump, it would be a tie. The Presidency would be decided by the incoming House of Representatives. It happened before, in 1800 and 1824. Unlikely, though.

This is a snapshot - much may change by November.
 

A Voice

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The "Pundit Consensus" puts Joe Biden only 22 votes short, assuming the EVs follow the colour.

View attachment 25900

He could lose Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, and still win by taking Arizona, Wisconsin and the single EV in the 2nd Nebraska Congressional District.

If he won those two States, and the Nebraska EV went to Trump, it would be a tie. The Presidency would be decided by the incoming House of Representatives. It happened before, in 1800 and 1824. Unlikely, though.

This is a snapshot - much may change by November.
That seems very tight. I would have thought with the poll gap so big Biden would be in clover. And it's state polls as well as national polls I'm thinking of.
 

owedtojoy

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That seems very tight. I would have thought with the poll gap so big Biden would be in clover. And it's state polls as well as national polls I'm thinking of.
Pundits are being very cautious, but a few put Biden well in control. Here is the map based on polls only.

B8EbE.png
 

silverharp

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Pundits are being very cautious, but a few put Biden well in control. Here is the map based on polls only.
One other factor is the suspicion that some Trump supporters are lying to posters. Obviously no way to quantify it but given that people are fired or doxxed for supporting Trump, no reason to let your voting preferences get out there where it might be used against you.
 

amsterdemmetje

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Comment on the resulting apocalypse
Em did you miss the ongoing one happining right now every day, over a quarter of million infections a week the way its going all under the watching eye of Trump who said" it would disappear like a miracle", "its all under control ".
 

Jack Walsh

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One other factor is the suspicion that some Trump supporters are lying to posters. Obviously no way to quantify it but given that people are fired or doxxed for supporting Trump, no reason to let your voting preferences get out there where it might be used against you.
It isn't a factor if it is merely a suspicion you hold.
Hunches aren't reliable, they are usually just a sign of desperation

There is no current pollster that I am aware of (even Trump leaning ones) that are suggesting this is a factor

I mean seriously, even the name "Shy Trump Voter" is laughable
 

livingstone

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One other factor is the suspicion that some Trump supporters are lying to posters. Obviously no way to quantify it but given that people are fired or doxxed for supporting Trump, no reason to let your voting preferences get out there where it might be used against you.
We were told the same in 2016, but it turned out national polling was broadly accurate within the margin of error.
 

silverharp

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Betson

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FFS
That thing you quote from some Trump cult head is a farce, it has zero credibility or relevance
Anyone who does not disagree with you has zero credibility as far as you are concerned , also remember he was the one that got 2016 spot on while you got it horrible wrong.

You should also remember the early reporting on the exit polls on 2016 when all the MSM networks were prematurely celebrating President Hilary , even the Trump campaign conceded that if those exist polls were correct it would be a long hard night for them. But not enough stock was taken in the fact that Trump supporters are less likely to cooperate with pollsters who work for the media.

There is no doubt that Biden is well ahead in the polling right now and may romp home and deservedly favorite , but a few months is a long time in politics. The election will not be decided on national numbers , but on what happens in those important swing states.
 

livingstone

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Anyone who does not disagree with you has zero credibility as far as you are concerned , also remember he was the one that got 2016 spot on while you got it horrible wrong.

You should also remember the early reporting on the exit polls on 2016 when all the MSM networks were prematurely celebrating President Hilary , even the Trump campaign conceded that if those exist polls were correct it would be a long hard night for them. But not enough stock was taken in the fact that Trump supporters are less likely to cooperate with pollsters who work for the media.

There is no doubt that Biden is well ahead in the polling right now and may romp home and deservedly favorite , but a few months is a long time in politics. The election will not be decided on national numbers , but on what happens in those important swing states.
National vote is only irrelevant if it is quite narrow.

If Biden had, say, a 7% lead in the national vote, the EC is unlikely to save Trump. Of course it's theoretically possible: Biden wins California by 90% but loses all the swing states and a few red states by less than 1%. But in practice, swing states are swing states because they usually track the national vote with a degree of predictable red or blue lean. So for example, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan leaned about 2% red compared to national vote. So if Biden is ahead by 3% he might expect to win those states but it wouldn't be a certainty. But if he;s winning by 7% there's very little chance of states that lean only slightly red compared to national average will actually turn (or stay) red.
 

raetsel

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Anyone who does not disagree with you has zero credibility as far as you are concerned , also remember he was the one that got 2016 spot on while you got it horrible wrong.

You should also remember the early reporting on the exit polls on 2016 when all the MSM networks were prematurely celebrating President Hilary , even the Trump campaign conceded that if those exist polls were correct it would be a long hard night for them. But not enough stock was taken in the fact that Trump supporters are less likely to cooperate with pollsters who work for the media.

There is no doubt that Biden is well ahead in the polling right now and may romp home and deservedly favorite , but a few months is a long time in politics. The election will not be decided on national numbers , but on what happens in those important swing states.
The problem with all Trump supporters is that they want to rewrite history regarding what the opinion polls were saying in the final week of the last election. It was perfectly obvious that it was on a knife edge by that stage as this sample of polls from the time demonstrates.


Most fell within the margin of error and Clinton won the popular vote by a clear majority. The vagaries of the US electoral college simply cannot be predicted on the basis of the overall national polling figures for obvious reasons.
 


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