The Syraqi Civil War thread (Original Thread)

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owedtojoy

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Since Bolton got involved, the direction has been insane.

The South Koreans are blaming Bolton for messing up the rapprochement between the Koreas.

I think Trup should say "you're fired" to Bolton. He is as useful as a bull in a porcelain warehouse.
Told you Trump would bring back the neocons.

Peace and Love President, they said.
Good for the Middle East, they said.

Trump has nothing against wars in the Middle East, as long as there is oil to plunder. His problem with Bush is that he did not plunder enough oil to make the Iraq war pay.

Bolton is running the show, now. He has more Trump face-time than anyone else. Kelly's influence had waned, Mattis is out of the loop, and Pompeo is another neocon. Bolton made a full-on attempt to de-rail the Korea negotiations, and he may yet succeed.

Future historians will see the Bolton appointment as the day the Trump Presidency finally went over the edge.
 


Mick Mac

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bormotello

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Everything you need to know about Syrian civil war is in Hillary Clinton e-mail
https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/emailid/18328
The best way to help Israel deal with Iran's growing nuclear capability is to help the people of Syria overthrow the regime of Bashar Assad.
.....
Back to Syria. It is the strategic relationship between Iran and the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria that makes it possible for Iran to undermine Israel's security — not through a direct attack, which in the thirty years of hostility between Iran and Israel has never occurred, but through its proxies in Lebanon, like Hezbollah, that are sustained, armed and trained by Iran via Syria. The end of the Assad regime would end this dangerous alliance. Israel's leadership understands well why defeating Assad is now in its interests. Speaking on CNN's Amanpour show last week, Defense Minister Ehud Barak argued that "the toppling down of Assad will be a major blow to the radical axis, major blow to Iran.... It's the only kind of outpost of the Iranian influence in the Arab world...and it will weaken dramatically both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza."

The Obama administration has been understandably wary of engaging in an air operation in Syria like the one conducted in Libya for three main reasons. Unlike the Libyan opposition forces, the Syrian rebels are not unified and do not hold territory. The Arab League has not called for outside military intervention as it did in Libya. And the Russians are opposed.

Libya was an easier case. But other than the laudable purpose of saving Libyan civilians from likely attacks by Qaddafi's regime, the Libyan operation had no long-lasting consequences for the region. Syria is harder. But success in Syria would be a transformative event for the Middle East. Not only would another ruthless dictator succumb to mass opposition on the streets, but the region would be changed for the better as Iran would no longer have a foothold in the Middle East from which to threaten Israel and undermine stability in the region.

Unlike in Libya, a successful intervention in Syria would require substantial diplomatic and military leadership from the United States. Washington should start by expressing its
willingness to work with regional allies like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar to organize, train and arm Syrian rebel forces. The announcement of such a decision would, by itself, likely cause substantial defections from the Syrian military. Then, using territory in Turkey and possibly Jordan, U.S. diplomats and Pentagon officials can start strengthening the opposition. It will take time. But the rebellion is going to go on for a long time, with or without U.S. involvement.

The second step is to develop international support for a coalition air operation. Russia will never support such a mission, so there is no point operating through the UN Security Council.
Some argue that U.S. involvement risks a wider war with Russia. But the Kosovo example shows otherwise. In that case, Russia had genuine ethnic and political ties to the Serbs, which don't exist between Russia and Syria, and even then Russia did little more than complain.
Russian officials have already acknowledged they won't stand in the way if intervention comes.
Arming the Syrian rebels and using western air power to ground Syrian helicopters and
airplanes is a low-cost high payoff approach. As long as Washington's political leaders stay firm that no U.S. ground troops will be deployed, as they did in both Kosovo and Libya, the costs to the United States will be limited. Victory may not come quickly or easily, but it will come. And the payoff will be substantial. Iran would be strategically isolated, unable to exert its influence in the Middle East. The resulting regime in Syria will see the United States as a friend, not an enemy. Washington would gain substantial recognition as fighting for the people in the Arab world, not the corrupt regimes. For Israel, the rationale for a bolt from the blue attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would be eased. And a new Syrian regime might well be open to early action on the frozen peace talks with Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon would be cut off from its Iranian sponsor since Syria would no longer be a transit point for Iranian training, assistance and missiles. All these strategic benefits and the prospect of saving thousands of civilians from murder at the hands of the Assad regime (10,000 have already been killed in this first year of
civil war).

With the veil of fear lifted from the Syrian people, they seem determine to fight for their freedom. America can and should help them — and by doing so help Israel and help reduce the risk of a wider war.
 

JohnD66

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Having cleared Damascus of rebel forces, Syrian government forces' (and allies) next target is the insurgent enclave in the south around Daraa.

Daraa was the site of the initial protests in 2011 which (according to one version anyway) sparked off the war.

This enclave has seen a lot of bloody fighting over the years. Irish troops in Golan ended up basically being evacuated over to the Israeli side of Golan in 2014 after the UN forces were attacked by the rebels.

The rebels there are in general bit less Islamist dominated than elsewhere, although there is an ISIS and al Nusra presence there.

What makes it really tricky though is the protection offered to the rebels by Israel and Jordan. Jordan apparently has tired of the war and is prepared to see its former allies defeated. Israel on the other hand has only become more anxious as Iran an Hezbollah have become more engaged in the war. To counteract this, Russia has apparently decided with the Assad government that no Iranian forces are to be used.

Hard to say what way this will go. A lot depends on the Israeli attitude. If they provide air support for the rebels they will probably be able to resist the offensive. If not, probably not.

Edit: The US has apparently warned Syrian state forces not to advance towards the border with Golan. Which would indicate that they and Israel still intend to prop up the rebels there.

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/05/26/us-warns-syrian-government-not-to-advance-on-rebels-in-south.html

 

comet

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Alex Thomson of Channel 4, Inside Ghouta.

[video]https://www.channel4.com/news/inside-ghouta-as-syrian-government-fully-controls-damascus-for-the-first-time-in-seven-years[/video]
 

owedtojoy

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Having cleared Damascus of rebel forces, Syrian government forces' (and allies) next target is the insurgent enclave in the south around Daraa.

Daraa was the site of the initial protests in 2011 which (according to one version anyway) sparked off the war.

This enclave has seen a lot of bloody fighting over the years. Irish troops in Golan ended up basically being evacuated over to the Israeli side of Golan in 2014 after the UN forces were attacked by the rebels.

The rebels there are in general bit less Islamist dominated than elsewhere, although there is an ISIS and al Nusra presence there.

What makes it really tricky though is the protection offered to the rebels by Israel and Jordan. Jordan apparently has tired of the war and is prepared to see its former allies defeated. Israel on the other hand has only become more anxious as Iran an Hezbollah have become more engaged in the war. To counteract this, Russia has apparently decided with the Assad government that no Iranian forces are to be used.

Hard to say what way this will go. A lot depends on the Israeli attitude. If they provide air support for the rebels they will probably be able to resist the offensive. If not, probably not.

Edit: The US has apparently warned Syrian state forces not to advance towards the border with Golan. Which would indicate that they and Israel still intend to prop up the rebels there.

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/05/26/us-warns-syrian-government-not-to-advance-on-rebels-in-south.html

US "mission creep" in Syria.

Now claiming they will intervene to keep Syrian-Iranian forces away from the Israeli border. They may support Israel's annexation of the Golan, Syrian sovereign territory. With Trump's and Bolton's track record, that is certainly on the cards.

The US and Israel are supporting the Nusra Front aka Jabhat Fateh al-Sham aka Al-Qaeda in Syria in the region.

https://www.juancole.com/2018/05/despite-withdrawal-massive.html

US mission creep in Syria: Is it legal? | Americas| North and South American news impacting on Europe | DW | 29.01.2018

... the United States is also moving the goal posts of its involvement in Syria, and in doing so raising the stakes of armed conflict with Russia, Syria, Iran, and as events in Afrin recently show, even with NATO ally Turkey.

This is exactly the reverse of Trump's election promises, and even the reverse of his recent statements.
 

Analyzer

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US "mission creep" in Syria.

Now claiming they will intervene to keep Syrian-Iranian forces away from the Israeli border. They may support Israel's annexation of the Golan, Syrian sovereign territory. With Trump's and Bolton's track record, that is certainly on the cards.

The US and Israel are supporting the Nusra Front aka Jabhat Fateh al-Sham aka Al-Qaeda in Syria in the region.

https://www.juancole.com/2018/05/despite-withdrawal-massive.html

US mission creep in Syria: Is it legal? | Americas| North and South American news impacting on Europe | DW | 29.01.2018

... the United States is also moving the goal posts of its involvement in Syria, and in doing so raising the stakes of armed conflict with Russia, Syria, Iran, and as events in Afrin recently show, even with NATO ally Turkey.

This is exactly the reverse of Trump's election promises, and even the reverse of his recent statements.
Finally, you have come to your senses, and seen reason.

FSA = Fraud Syrian Army - mostly non-Syrians, who were never an army, but a collection of clueless and dangerous jihadis. They were usual collection of useless idiots who get involved in conflicts in any Middle Eastern country, that is not their own because they have nothing better to do with their lives.

Trump made a mistake appointing Bolton. Massive blunder. Bolton should be replaced by anybody. Even a crash test dummy.

The Koreas are back talking despite Bolton. And perhaps there might be peace again in Syria...despite Bolton.
 

tsarbomb

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Russian military police arrested some Syrian soldiers who were allegedly looting in Damascus. I wonder how this is going down with the natives?





Also, the Russian airforce reportedly intercepted two Israeli jets over the northern frontier of Lebanon.
 

JohnD66

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The Syrian war reminds me more and more of the Thirty Years War of the 17th Century, in that its mutated into something totally different and far more dangerous than it started out as.

Hear me out. So the Thirty Years War began with a rebellion of Protestants in Bohemia (modern Czechs) against the Catholic Austrian Habsburgs, it then became a sectarian civil war among the German states dragging in all of the surrounding powers, but for their own interests the French intervened on the Protestant side. So it ended up being basically a war between France and Habsburg Spain (who intervened on the side of their Austrian cousins).

Anyway, my point is that Syrian began as a revolt/foreign infiltration jihadi uprising/take your pick. But it began as an internal matter in 2011. Very quickly the surrounding powers all jumped in making it a regional sectarian war, with Iran helping Assad and all the Arab countries and western powers and Israel helping the Sunni side. But with Russian intervention it's becoming basically a stand off between America (which via the SDF occupies about half the territory) and Russia which of course backs Assad, who controls most of the other half (and almost all the centres of population).

Meanwhile there's a wild card, Turkey, whose troops and allied militias now occupy a considerable chunk of northern Syria.

Today, there's shelling going on between Turkish and Syrian troops in Latakia province and the US is warning Syrian government forces not to go ahead with an offensive in Daraa in the south.

It's hardly a Syrian Civil War at all today.
 

Atlantean

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From the get-go ;

The War in Syria was, & is, NOT a Civil War in Syria

Rather,- the War in Syria was, & is, a Foreign War upon Syria

It was devised by Israel

It is War-by-Proxy

The Proxy is the Mercenary Army of ISIS

ISIS = Israel Secret Intelligence Service
 

JohnD66

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From the get-go ;

The War in Syria was, & is, NOT a Civil War in Syria

Rather,- the War in Syria was, & is, a Foreign War upon Syria

It was devised by Israel

It is War-by-Proxy

The Proxy is the Mercenary Army of ISIS

ISIS = Israel Secret Intelligence Service
ISIS has always been a bit player in the war in Syria. For all their brutality they mainly occupied land no one else wanted until they got around to taking it back.

People always blame Israel for everything and they do have an interest in the war in Syria. But Turkey, for instance and now US and Russia are far more important players. It looks like the Gulf states have given up on it.
 

GDPR

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The Syrian war reminds me more and more of the Thirty Years War of the 17th Century, in that its mutated into something totally different and far more dangerous than it started out as.

Hear me out. So the Thirty Years War began with a rebellion of Protestants in Bohemia (modern Czechs) against the Catholic Austrian Habsburgs, it then became a sectarian civil war among the German states dragging in all of the surrounding powers, but for their own interests the French intervened on the Protestant side. So it ended up being basically a war between France and Habsburg Spain (who intervened on the side of their Austrian cousins).

Anyway, my point is that Syrian began as a revolt/foreign infiltration jihadi uprising/take your pick. But it began as an internal matter in 2011. Very quickly the surrounding powers all jumped in making it a regional sectarian war, with Iran helping Assad and all the Arab countries and western powers and Israel helping the Sunni side. But with Russian intervention it's becoming basically a stand off between America (which via the SDF occupies about half the territory) and Russia which of course backs Assad, who controls most of the other half (and almost all the centres of population).

Meanwhile there's a wild card, Turkey, whose troops and allied militias now occupy a considerable chunk of northern Syria.

Today, there's shelling going on between Turkish and Syrian troops in Latakia province and the US is warning Syrian government forces not to go ahead with an offensive in Daraa in the south.

It's hardly a Syrian Civil War at all today.
I participated with my family in the protests against Assad, it was a popular movement people from differents ages and areas coming to gether to demand change.

But after, the soliders fired on the protesters and arrests were made by the police for anybody identified as having been in the protests. I remember the anger in the streets. Everywhere was protesting, even some police and army.

Assad released from prisoon, men that had been arrested for crimes and for extremist activities and men that had been fighting against the US in Iraq.

This turned the protests into a war, with training and money coming from rich arab states and the USA. But the leaders of the groups all had objectives separately and no common leader emerged that had the respect of the people.
 

JohnD66

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I participated with my family in the protests against Assad, it was a popular movement people from differents ages and areas coming to gether to demand change.

But after, the soliders fired on the protesters and arrests were made by the police for anybody identified as having been in the protests. I remember the anger in the streets. Everywhere was protesting, even some police and army.

Assad released from prisoon, men that had been arrested for crimes and for extremist activities and men that had been fighting against the US in Iraq.

This turned the protests into a war, with training and money coming from rich arab states and the USA. But the leaders of the groups all had objectives separately and no common leader emerged that had the respect of the people.
I've heard this often. So if everything is Assad's fault, why did all the rebels ally with all these extremists, the likes of Nusra, Ahar al Sham, Jaysh al Islam etc etc and yes ISIS (up to 2014?).

In any case, what's happening now has got nothing to do with democracy or the protests in 2011, it's just power struggle between the surrounding states.
 
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