The UK's brexit bill - how much and for what?

McTell

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No
https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

100 billion?

https://www.ft.com/content/699bc786-9e67-34c9-b5f9-7cceddedd635

40 billion? No..

The new counter-argument is that the UK paid 200 billion net-net into the EEC/EU over the decades, and doesn't owe anything, or not much. It paid its dues more than most and is using an agreed exit method. Like leaving a club, you pay your membership and bills up to the day you leave.

Plus there's a new view that its share of 1/6th of the European Investment Bank is worth €11 billion

https://fullfact.org/economy/uks-stake-european-investment-bank/

..obviously some longer membership of the EIB must be allowed for to wind that down.


Obviously the arguments have been slow to emerge and Ms May has taken stick for that, and for the general delays. On the other hand, the EU is not saying out loud that because its 15% donor is leaving, all its services will be cut back pro rata. Which means they expect us all to pay 15% more?
 


Sync

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On the other hand, the EU is not saying out loud that because its 15% donor is leaving, all its services will be cut back pro rata. Which means they expect us all to pay 15% more?
Yup. The EU's central argument is two fold.

1. Pensions for EU workers. Gotta contribute to the people who have maintained the EU for your stay (While subtracting the cost of UK workers if they want to manage that themselves.

2. Committed funds. So let's say the EU countries have agreed to spend 1 billion on a road in Bulgaria to help their infrastructure in 2020 and the UK made up 100 million of that. What does the EU do? Abandon the road halfway through? Force the other EU countries to pick up the 100 million the UK are breaking their commitment on?

The legality of this would be iffy, but again, this isn't about legality. It's about who holds the crop. And that's the EU. There'll be a number that will be agreed. It's actually the least complex element of the break-up.
 

jvghan

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Are you taking into account the assets the UK are entitled too?
We've pumped £500billion into the club over the years, don't we have a slice of the assets or aren't we entitled to any? if so, then why should we pay a penny piece towards the budget after we've left and to the pensions of rich bureaucrats.
 

Sync

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Are you taking into account the assets the UK are entitled too?
We've pumped £500billion into the club over the years, don't we have a slice of the assets or aren't we entitled to any? if so, then why should we pay a penny piece towards the budget after we've left and to the pensions of rich bureaucrats.
*Shrug* That wasn't a loan or a reversible amount. If the UK were to insist on that then the UK gets the WTO rate for trade. The UK needs the EU more than the EU needs the UK. They need the deal done quicker than the EU does. So there'll be a number reached and that number will be more in favour of the EU than the UK. Again: This is the easy bit.
 

GJG

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Yup. The EU's central argument is two fold.

1. Pensions for EU workers. Gotta contribute to the people who have maintained the EU for your stay (While subtracting the cost of UK workers if they want to manage that themselves.

2. Committed funds. So let's say the EU countries have agreed to spend 1 billion on a road in Bulgaria to help their infrastructure in 2020 and the UK made up 100 million of that. What does the EU do? Abandon the road halfway through? Force the other EU countries to pick up the 100 million the UK are breaking their commitment on?.
Yup. Essentially German, French and UK taxpayers are paying for the motorways that their exporters can deliver their goods on in a free market. Everyone wins.

The loonier Brits are imagining that they can have free access to the markets and have the Germans, French and others pick up the tab. That's going to go about as well as you would expect

The legality of this would be iffy, but again, this isn't about legality. It's about who holds the crop.
Yup

And that's the EU.
Yup

There'll be a number that will be agreed.
Yup. A single integer. It's basically selling a heifer.

It's actually the least complex element of the break-up.
And there's the rub. The Brexiloons are roaring about it because that suits the IQ of their constituency. When you start telling them that it's not as simple as 'us buying German cars', that nothing is made anywhere any more, everything is made almost everywhere and you need frictionless export of goods to allow components to come together to assemble a finished product, they just go back to singing another 47 choruses of Ing-ur-laaand Ing-ur-laaand Ing-ur-laaand.

What is happening now, not in two years 18 months is that every time a supply chain is considered, every effort is being made to make sure that it doesn't include any UK-sourced components. There is no cliff-edge, there is a long slope into the mire, and they are rolling down it already.
 

jvghan

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Anyone would think Britain wasn't the 7th largest manufacturing nation in the world..
Is that why you have to insult people because your arguments are worthless?

Like I've said, why does a British manufacturing firm have to continue to import from the EU when they can find cheaper parts from the rest of the world?

I think some of your EUloons are still living in the 1950s when Europe was a major player in the world.
 
D

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Yup. The EU's central argument is two fold.

1. Pensions for EU workers. Gotta contribute to the people who have maintained the EU for your stay (While subtracting the cost of UK workers if they want to manage that themselves.

2. Committed funds. So let's say the EU countries have agreed to spend 1 billion on a road in Bulgaria to help their infrastructure in 2020 and the UK made up 100 million of that. What does the EU do? Abandon the road halfway through? Force the other EU countries to pick up the 100 million the UK are breaking their commitment on?

The legality of this would be iffy, but again, this isn't about legality. It's about who holds the crop. And that's the EU. There'll be a number that will be agreed. It's actually the least complex element of the break-up.
The road in Bulgaria will then become an asset of the EU minus the UK. The funding of it will be a matter for the remaining members. And as far as pensions are concerned it would probably make more sense to simply transfer the liability to the UK with the pensions to be paid when they fall due from current expenditure.
 

Catalpast

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The Brits have nothing to lose by going to the line on this 1

When you owe someone 10,000 they own you

When you owe them a Billion

- you own them....:cool:
 

jvghan

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The Brits have nothing to lose by going to the line on this 1

When you owe someone 10,000 they own you

When you owe them a Billion

- you own them....:cool:
The EU Lawyers have said they can't enforce any payment on Britian, so we don't owe them anything, or didn't RTE tell you this?
 

firefly123

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Anyone would think Britain wasn't the 7th largest manufacturing nation in the world..
Is that why you have to insult people because your arguments are worthless?

Like I've said, why does a British manufacturing firm have to continue to import from the EU when they can find cheaper parts from the rest of the world?

I think some of your EUloons are still living in the 1950s when Europe was a major player in the world.
exhibit A m'lud.
 

Sync

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Anyone would think Britain wasn't the 7th largest manufacturing nation in the world..
Is that why you have to insult people because your arguments are worthless?

Like I've said, why does a British manufacturing firm have to continue to import from the EU when they can find cheaper parts from the rest of the world?
No one's saying they have to at all. In fact the EU have been very clear on their priorities. A trade deal is not one of them. 50% of the UK's export go to other EU countries. 16% of the EU's exports go to the UK. Sure, going to WTO numbers would be hurtful to the EU (Although most of what they get from the UK can be sourced to other EU countries). But it would crippling to the UK.

So if half your market now sees to cost of your product radically increase, how long do you foresee the UK remaining at 7?

Talk of courts is silly, just as it was silly when the Scots were talking about going to court to keep sterling. This is a political discussion, not a legal one.

  • The EU feel they're owed this money. Or at the very least: They want this money.
  • The UK doesn't have to pay it. No one can force them to.
  • The UK needs a trade deal with the EU.
  • The EU will only give them one if they get what they see as their money.

No money, no trade deal. There's no argument to be won here, there's no point where the EU will say "Oh it's ok, you don't owe us anything, let's sign a trade deal".

I think some of your EUloons are still living in the 1950s when Europe was a major player in the world.
It's hard to know where to start with that one.
 
Last edited:

jvghan

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50% of the UK's export go to other EU countries.
Sorry had to stop right there. It's 44% and with the Rotterdam effect it's even lower.

And with every passing year it is getting smaller. Thank god.
 

Tribal

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I'm a UK taxpayer, the money the EU is begging for, is my money and I'm of the mind like millions of others that we don't pay them a penny.
You should demand that the £200 million weekly subvention to northern Ireland go to the NHS instead. You wouldn't want to be funding a region of optional EU citizens after all!
 

shiel

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I'm a UK taxpayer, the money the EU is begging for, is my money and I'm of the mind like millions of others that we don't pay them a penny.
That will lead to breakdown in negotiations before Christmas.

That will introduce WTO trade rules forthwith.

That will lead to chaos.

Do the English want chaos?

Is that the reason they voted for Brexit?

Are they that arrogant?
 

Hewson

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Sir Vince Cable wrote a piece in the Mail on Sunday (no, didn't see it but read a synopsis on the BBC website) which summed up last year's referendum as the over 65s stuffing the country's younger workers, 71% of whom voted to remain in the EU.

The state of the Tory Party pretty much sums up Britain's approach to Brexit, ie, chaotic. Almost 14 months after opting to leave they still have no clear strategy in how to deal with what lies ahead. May is a dthering idiot as out of depth in the job as her chum Trump is across the water. If she gets to Christmas without finding a Boris knife in her back it will be little short of a miracle.

Brexiteers still propagate the fantasy that any pain in leaving the world's most powerful economic bloc will be quickly made up for by new alliances elsewhere. The '5th largest blah blah' mantra is still being peddled to the gullible without mentioning that the country's EU membership is largely responsible for that very fact. Theresa May is trotting around the former colonies looking for trade deals that may or may not transpire. What's certain is that those countries like India, Australia, Canada and so on will prioritise their own interests and won't want to upset any arrangements they have with the EU.

The British town hall pensioners might have the comfort of knowing that they'll end their days in the sepia-coloured, nostalgic dream of an independent country just as it was in the good old days.

But the real bill for the fulfilment of their fantasy will be paid for by those whose lives and careers are still ahead of them.
 

jvghan

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That will lead to breakdown in negotiations before Christmas.

That will introduce WTO trade rules forthwith.

That will lead to chaos.

Do the English want chaos?

Is that the reason they voted for Brexit?

Are they that arrogant?
We're happy to walk away tomorrow, or hasn't RTE told you this yet?

We know RTE censored the British EU debate in Ireland and promotes only negatives about Brexit but we're not going to accept a poor deal, we'd rather just leave and trade on WTO rules.
During the debate it was generally accepted that falling back on WTO rules won't effect us in a way that many are eagerly predicting, namely those who want us to remain their cashcow.

[video=youtube;T307eIp6h6M]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T307eIp6h6M[/video]
 

jvghan

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Sir Vince Cable wrote a piece in the Mail on Sunday (no, didn't see it but read a synopsis on the BBC website) which summed up last year's referendum as the over 65s stuffing the country's younger workers, 71% of whom voted to remain in the EU.

The state of the Tory Party pretty much sums up Britain's approach to Brexit, ie, chaotic. Almost 14 months after opting to leave they still have no clear strategy in how to deal with what lies ahead. May is a dthering idiot as out of depth in the job as her chum Trump is across the water. If she gets to Christmas without finding a Boris knife in her back it will be little short of a miracle.

Brexiteers still propagate the fantasy that any pain in leaving the world's most powerful economic bloc will be quickly made up for by new alliances elsewhere. The '5th largest blah blah' mantra is still being peddled to the gullible without mentioning that the country's EU membership is largely responsible for that very fact. Theresa May is trotting around the former colonies looking for trade deals that may or may not transpire. What's certain is that those countries like India, Australia, Canada and so on will prioritise their own interests and won't want to upset any arrangements they have with the EU.

The British town hall pensioners might have the comfort of knowing that they'll end their days in the sepia-coloured, nostalgic dream of an independent country just as it was in the good old days.

But the real bill for the fulfilment of their fantasy will be paid for by those whose lives and careers are still ahead of them.
Keep reading the BBC :lol:

When has the EU overtaken the USA are the worlds biggest economy then?
Oh, I see what you did, you used the word 'bloc' in which you mean Customs UNion. And just for a matter of interest as I'm curious, could you name me another Customs Union operating in the World to which this 'bloc' is compared too?

You might be the biggest, but it doesn't mean much, when the other 'blocs' are lets say, irreverent.
 


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