Thinking the Unthinkable – Can We Reverse Our Surrender?

[onlyasking]

Our ‘leaders’ have surrendered the immediate futures of millions of Irish citizens to the needs of the European banking classes. Almost everywhere it is acknowledged that the very small population of this state will carry most of the burden in saving the banks of very much greater nations, banks without which the scale of our present calamity would have been impossible.

We as a nation were put up against a wall by our EU ‘friends’ and given two options: “accept years or even decades of poverty, dispossession or exile, or your lives will not be worth living”.

If these terms were offered by a foreign military force off our coasts, there are many who would be willing to fight and even to die rather than accept the servility and impoverishment of their children.

In this instance, our ‘leaders’, bereft of any meaningful mandate whatsoever and guaranteed the role of richly-pensioned spectators in the future, undertook what appears to be the most abject peace-time surrender in modern history.

For what? It is eminently possible that the lives of a huge proportion of our population will not be worth living anyway as a result of the almost unimaginable burden now being imposed on us by our ‘friends’ in the EU. Furthermore, it is dawning on many people that, in what is a holding operation for the EU’s banking system, the terms and the numbers simply do not add up. A failure of the numbers to add up is of minimal concern to our EU ‘friends’, as the intention is clearly to ring-fence any resulting pain so that only the mere Irish suffer.

As it is, just a couple of days after this ECB-driven 'fix', it looks as if the most expensive sticking-plaster in history has fallen off the victim. Portugal, Spain, Italy and now Belgium are being drawn into the centre of the banking maelstrom. Despite the failure of the measure, we’ll still have to pay tens of billions for the faulty goods.

We are going to have an election soon. We will then have a government with something of a mandate. Seeing as this latest EU ‘fix’ is looking more and more likely to result in failure, and as that larger failure across the Eurozone would make Ireland and other states very likely to default at any rate, crucial questions arise –

Should all of the opposition parties begin to think the unthinkable, should they campaign on a commitment to stand up for the citizens of this state, and should a new government consider telling the EU that it has been mandated to tear up the documents of surrender?

Today’s Daily Telegraph provides us with a powerful view from Britain. The understanding that we have been forced to kneel before our European masters rings through loud and clear.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the Telegraph’s International Business Editor, identifies the enormity of the choice we are faced with: “what the Irish have before them is a political choice about what they wish to be as a people, and a nation”.

Ireland's Debt Servitude – Telegraph Blogs

The question is, do we accept this crushingly unjust outcome, or do we stand up as a people and say enough is enough. Is there any limit to the price we are willing to pay to our ‘friends’ in the EU? Is poverty, dispossession and exile too high a price? If not, then we as a people have indeed been brought to our knees.

We sleepwalked into our calamity. Let’s not sleepwalk into our ultimate demise. The unthinkable must become a central issue in the coming election.

 

[Deleted member 17573]

First step if we reject this will be to eliminate the 20bn deficit on Dec 7th. If you´re not on for that, forget it.

 

[borntorum]

The Telegraph: Ireland's debt servitude

The business editor of the Daily Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, has written a damning condemnation of the so-called 'bailout' of us by the EU and the IMF. His beef is mainly with the EU, which is probably to be expected from a senior writer on the Telegraph, but it's good to see that at least some non-Irish elements are realising how we are being screwed for the benefit of German and UK investors.

Stripped to its essentials, the €85bn package imposed on Ireland by the Eurogroup and the European Central Bank is a bail-out for improvident British, German, Dutch, and Belgian bankers and creditors.
The Irish taxpayers carry the full burden, and deplete what remains of their reserve pension fund to cover a quarter of the cost.
This arrangement – I am not going to grace it with the term deal – was announced in Brussels before the elected Taoiseach of Ireland had been able to tell his own people what their fate would be.

I might add that if it is really true that a haircut on the senior debt of Anglo Irish, et al, would bring down the entire financial edifice of Europe, then how did any of these European banks pass their stress tests this summer, and how did the EU authorities ever let the matter reach this point? Brussels cannot have it both ways.
Ireland did not run large fiscal deficits or violate the Maastricht Treaty in the boom years. It ran a fiscal surplus, (as did Spain) and reduced its public debt to near zero. German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble keeps missing this basic point, but then we don’t want to disturb a comfortable – and convenient – German prejudice.

Let me add that the ECB ran a monetary policy that was too loose even for the eurozone as a whole, holding rates at 2pc until well into the credit boom and allowing the M3 money supply to expand at 11pc (against a 4.5pc target). The ECB breached its own inflation ceiling every month for a decade. It did this to help Germany through its mini-slump, and in doing so poured petrol on the bonfire of the PIGS. So please, NO MORE HYPOCRISY FROM BERLIN.

By 2014, interest payments on Ireland’s public debt (then 120pc of GDP) will be €10bn, while tax revenues will be €36bn. This ratio is well above the average default trigger of 22pc, as calculated in a Moody’s study.
Nominal Irish GNP has contracted by 26pc since the peak. It is nominal, not real, that matters for debt dynamics.
Ireland is in a classic debt-deflation trap , as described by Irving Fisher in his 1933 Economica paper.
Yes, it has a very vibrant export sector, and can perhaps claw its way out of the trap – which Greece and Portugal cannot hope to do in time, in my view. In a way that makes the choice even harder.

To hell with our EU 'partners'. They are screwing us for their own benefit.

Ireland's Debt Servitude – Telegraph Blogs

 

[Gimpanzee]

The business editor of the Daily Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, has written a damning condemnation of the so-called 'bailout' of us by the EU and the IMF. His beef is mainly with the EU....

I'm not saying he's right or wrong, but when it comes to the EU, the Telegraph and Prichard it is a case of 'well he would say that, wouldn't he'

 

[blinding]

I am not going to become a slave so that gambling bankers and FFailure W-ankers can continue on their merry way.

Whatever its going to take to make these gombeens responsible for their actions is going to be done.

 

[Gimpanzee]

First step if we reject this will be to eliminate the 20bn deficit on Dec 7th. If you´re not on for that, forget it.

Second step, cut corporation tax to 7%. attackattackattackattack......

 

[Catalpa]

Europa Conventus Delenda Est

 

[Maitreya]

Fianna Gael to Abstain on vital budget vote.

I was talking to a Labour party TD's secretary today and they said that Fianna Gael are planning to abstain from the vital Budget vote, which is our las chance saloon. By abstaining on the budget vote FG will be handing over our fiscal arrangements to the EU as agreed my this unmandated government.
What is the point in having FG in power if we have NO control whatsoever over our fiscal arrangements, quarterly budgets that will be cut, cut, cut , once the state assetts have been sold off.
With best wishes and many thanks for doing a great job ,

 

[He3]

There is no deal yet. There is plenty of spin geared to create the impression that there is a deal. The extent of their effort betrays their own uncertainty about what they are doing. Nothing has been signed, because the vital details have not even yet been worked out.

So there is scope - where are FG and Labour?

http://www.politics.ie/economy/144626-case-you-missed-we-still-have-not-seen-imf-eu-deal.html

 

[former wesleyan]

"The Moving Finger writes: and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it."

 

[onlyasking]

I was talking to a Labour party TD's secretary today and they said that Fianna Gael are planning to abstain from the vital Budget vote, which is our las chance saloon. By abstaining on the budget vote FG will be handing over our fiscal arrangements to the EU as agreed my this unmandated government.
What is the point in having FG in power if we have NO control whatsoever over our fiscal arrangements, quarterly budgets that will be cut, cut, cut , once the state assetts have been sold off.
With best wishes and many thanks for doing a great job ,

What we really need is a choice in the coming election. We need one of the national parties to campaign on "The Unthinkable", if that's possible. Or at least we could have a debate within parties as to the possibilities of such an approach.

The last thing we need is a consensus that we're in a trap from which there's no escape.

 

[ppcoyle]

The bailout package, as I understand it, has a total provision for the banks of €35 billion. The remainder of the €85 billion is to cover the budget shortfall between revenue and expenditure. There can be no haircut on the budget deficit and for the government to cover its day to day expenditure it needs to borrow from somewhere. Suppose Plan B were implemented and the senior bondholders took a severe haircut where then would the government go borrow the money to run the country while the deficit is reduced to the target 3%?

An editorial (Ireland has been betrayed by its leaders) in The Observer of November 21st had this to say:

Besides, without access to ECB emergency finance, Irish banks would have collapsed last year, possibly taking the Irish state down with them. The ensuing panic would have infected the UK, regardless of its euro-aloofness.

The threat to Ireland now does not come from visiting European officials. And the last thing the country needs is a surge of embittered introspection and "ourselves alone" nationalism. In the past, when Ireland has suffered economic malaise, younger generations have sought a better life elsewhere. One of the great achievements of the boom was to retain the services of a young, cosmopolitan, entrepreneurial class. They helped transform the country's economic prospects and its self-confidence. Now the Tiger generation is eyeing the exit.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/nov/21/ireland-bailout-economy-imf-euro?showallcomments=true#comment-8469791

 

[borntorum]

I'm not saying he's right or wrong, but when it comes to the EU, the Telegraph and Prichard it is a case of 'well he would say that, wouldn't he'

If it was an opinion piece I'd agree with you. But he's mainly dealing in facts. We are being forced to take all the pain, while the bondholders are allowed get away scot free.

In our current economic predicament, we can't tell the EU/ECB to get stuffed. We can only hope that, when it becomes clear that our problems (and those of the other PIGS) aren't going away, that the EU as a whole will work in unison to deal properly with the underlying issues.

 

[He3]

"The Moving Finger writes: and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it."

Except for one thing - the moving finger hath not writ, so far.

 

[Gimpanzee]

If it was an opinion piece I'd agree with you. But he's mainly dealing in facts. We are being forced to take all the pain, while the bondholders are allowed get away scot free.

In our current economic predicament, we can't tell the EU/ECB to get stuffed. We can only hope that, when it becomes clear that our problems (and those of the other PIGS) aren't going away, that the EU as a whole will work in unison to deal properly with the underlying issues.

I don't think there is any doubt that what we got was a temporary fix and that the EU or at least the ECB were well aware that this was little more than an attempt to buy a bit of time to come up with a bigger solution. My fear is that when that solution comes, it might be a case that we get a double dose of fixing, while say Portugal and Spain might just manage to get away with the 'proper' eu/eurozone-wide fix. I think the bondholders will get away this time.

 

[Freedom front]

Surrender , Onward to Victory, pull our masters & enemies closer

 

[dresden8]

FG/Lab pretend to be opposed but are prepared to let all the preliminary steps to this "deal" pass through the Dail, therefore they are not really opposed, just happy to see FF take the blame. Opposed to the budget but happy to see it through, opposed to the "deal" but not prepared to stop it.

FG/Lab eurotrons are quite happy to do their masters bidding, and we are not their masters.

Only the Shinners are prepared to stand up and represent the Irish people. 5 years ago they weren't an option for me, today they're the only option (apart from uncle Joe).

FG and Labour are going to shoot themselves in the foot over this one.

Useless and quite visibly so.

 

[slx]

This mess has all the ingredients to cause a civil war or worse to be quite honest.

Does Germany not remember what happened when they were screwed to the floor in the 1920s?

If Spain's pushed into this scenario, I can't imagine Catalonia or the Basque Country (two powerhouses of the Spanish economy) accepting Madrid's austerity plans, particularly if they're being pushed from the ECB. Spain could end up violently breaking apart.

The ECB clearly has absolutely no social conscience or comprehension of how political reactions to this might pan out.

 

[Deleted member 17573]

This mess has all the ingredients to cause a civil war or worse to be quite honest.

Does Germany not remember what happened when they were screwed to the floor in the 1920s?

If Spain's pushed into this scenario, I can't imagine Catalonia or the Basque Country (two powerhouses of the Spanish economy) accepting Madrid's austerity plans, particularly if they're being pushed from the ECB. Spain could end up violently breaking apart.

The ECB clearly has absolutely no social conscience or comprehension of how political reactions to this might pan out.

The bailout we have received is not even remotely comparable to the reparations imposed on Germany after WW1.

 

[LongShanks]

Only the Shinners are prepared to stand up and represent the Irish people. 5 years ago they weren't an option for me, today they're the only option (apart from uncle Joe).

FG and Labour are going to shoot themselves in the foot over this one.

Useless and quite visibly so.

+1.

A previous poster mentioned that FG are going to abstain from the budget vote. Cowards. They may as well vote for it. They won't get a single transfer from me on that alone.