Thinking the Unthinkable – Can We Reverse Our Surrender?



He3

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D

Deleted member 17573

He3

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Wanting to read the document that they want to tie us to is not in any normal meaning of the word hysteria Sailor.

Calm down.
 

slx

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The bailout we have received is not even remotely comparable to the reparations imposed on Germany after WW1.
German Reparations for WWI were set at ~$778 billion in today's terms (accounting for inflation)

So, given the German population of 81,879,976 ... - ~ 18.4 times bigger than Ireland.

So, let's take the Irish Bailout US$110 billion (85 billion Euro) and multiply by 18.4 to scale it up to German standards = 2.024 trillion US$

Now let's divide 2.024 trillion US$ by 778 billion (the German reparation for WWI) = 2.6 times.

So, our "bale out" is roughly 2.6 times worse than the German WWI reparations on a per capita basis and it's charged at an interest rate. AFAIK the Germans just had to pay back the lump sum over a period of time.

All I'm saying is if you impose something like that on any country, you can expect fireworks. Ireland's actually not the most stable place in the world, and has armed nationalist terrorists, so does Spain.

I just think the EU is playing with fire and could very easily cause major conflict in several countries if they push them over the brink like this.

Best case scenario at the moment is the EU will be forced to see reality and devalue the Euro to cope with Spain, but if it continues this ultra-hard line and "punish the people" agenda, it may get a back lash that economists were completely unable to predict.

People get VERY angry in situations like this!
 

Doodah

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Since our current politicians do not have the ability to fight on behalf of the country,
we should be true to our inherent snakey nature and try through the media to manouevre/encourage the Brits to get involved.

Meanwhile, nudge the budget day further towards Christmas because of bad weather or something, then after Christmas , because it's Christmas, and wait and see if Spain/Italy surrenders.

Delaying tactics is all there is now.
 
D

Deleted member 17573

Wanting to read the document that they want to tie us to is not in any normal meaning of the word hysteria Sailor.

Calm down.
The document is still being drafted - it´s a very detailed piece of work. And this thread is not about the details - it is, funny enough, about overturning the deal even though, as you point out, we have not seen the details.
 
D

Deleted member 17573

German Reparations for WWI were set at ~$778 billion in today's terms (accounting for inflation)

So, given the German population of 81,879,976 ... - ~ 18.4 times bigger than Ireland.

So, let's take the Irish Bailout US$110 billion (85 billion Euro) and multiply by 18.4 to scale it up to German standards = 2.024 trillion US$

Now let's divide 2.024 trillion US$ by 778 billion (the German reparation for WWI) = 2.6 times.

So, our "bale out" is roughly 2.6 times worse than the German WWI reparations on a per capita basis and it's charged at an interest rate. AFAIK the Germans just had to pay back the lump sum over a period of time.

All I'm saying is if you impose something like that on any country, you can expect fireworks. Ireland's actually not the most stable place in the world, and has armed nationalist terrorists, so does Spain.

I just think the EU is playing with fire and could very easily cause major conflict in several countries if they push them over the brink like this.

Best case scenario at the moment is the EU will be forced to see reality and devalue the Euro to cope with Spain, but if it continues this ultra-hard line and "punish the people" agenda, it may get a back lash that economists were completely unable to predict.

People get VERY angry in situations like this!
But the problem is not the bailout - the problem is composed of a banking crisis and a sovereign debt problem. The bailout is not the problem, it is the solution. If you have a better solution lets be hearing it.
 

ICallely

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Second step, cut corporation tax to 7%. attackattackattackattack......
Like it!

Drop VAT to 19%, take THAT, George Osbourne!

Eliminate ALL airport charges - Welcome Back Ryanair!

Shannon Stopover, open for business.
 

slx

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Protect the depositors, transfer accounts to a new state protected entity (or entities) and basically denationalise the banks and allow nature to take its course and they will go bankrupt and then start again.

We'd lose quite a lot of money, but we wouldn't be just bled dry as the current plan seems to intend to do.

I don't really think there is another alternative in the absence of a major devaluation of the Euro.
 
D

Deleted member 17573

Protect the depositors, transfer accounts to a new state protected entity (or entities) and basically denationalise the banks and allow nature to take its course and they will go bankrupt and then start again.

We'd lose quite a lot of money, but we wouldn't be just bled dry as the current plan seems to intend to do.

I don't really think there is another alternative in the absence of a major devaluation of the Euro.
And, leaving the banks aside, where are you planning to get your hands on 20bn a year?
 

dresden8

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And, leaving the banks aside, where are you planning to get your hands on 20bn a year?
Our hugely high bond rates are caused by our instability due to our exposure to the banks.

This has been explained several times, you don't want to hear it because you are a FF "I'm not FF" snake in the grass.

Carry on.
 

onlyasking

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This mess has all the ingredients to cause a civil war or worse to be quite honest.

Does Germany not remember what happened when they were screwed to the floor in the 1920s?

If Spain's pushed into this scenario, I can't imagine Catalonia or the Basque Country (two powerhouses of the Spanish economy) accepting Madrid's austerity plans, particularly if they're being pushed from the ECB. Spain could end up violently breaking apart.

The ECB clearly has absolutely no social conscience or comprehension of how political reactions to this might pan out.
You're correct in identifying the existence of fairly long-dormant forces in Europe, forces that could express themselves in a manner that many assume to be beyond the scope of likely events.

I'm beginning to think that it's getting difficult to generate sufficient powers of imagination with which to lower our expectations far enough. People should rule nothing out, including very malign circumstances.

Basically, we're in a cycle where every worst nightmare is realised before we move on to a worse scenario. When will that cycle stop? Don't bet on it being anytime soon.
 
D

Deleted member 17573

Our hugely high bond rates are caused by our instability due to our exposure to the banks.

This has been explained several times, you don't want to hear it because you are a FF "I'm not FF" snake in the grass.

Carry on.
The question I posed was how do we deal with our deficit if we burn bank bondholders. And what I mean is where do we get our hands on 20bn a year to pay for public services - unless you favour halving PS pay and welfare rates.
 

onlyasking

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Our hugely high bond rates are caused by our instability due to our exposure to the banks.

This has been explained several times, you don't want to hear it because you are a FF "I'm not FF" snake in the grass.

Carry on.
I'm saying anything about Sailor himself, but there are a lot of arguments out there which can now be described as "Zombie" arguments. No matter how many times you knock them down, they drag themselves back up off the floor and lurch in your direction once more, over and over.
 
D

Deleted member 17573

I'm saying anything about Sailor himself, but there are a lot of arguments out there which can now be described as "Zombie" arguments. No matter how many times you knock them down, they drag themselves back up off the floor and lurch in your direction once more, over and over.
I´ll try again - how are you planning to fund public services once you´ve defaulted? No point in opposing the bailout unless you have a coherent alternative - and so far you have not presented one.
 

slx

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You constantly got that mantra about the bank guarantee too when EVERYONE who had more than 2 brain cells was saying it was nuts.

Some people start to genuinely believe their own hype.

You feel like the Government is just repeatedly sticking its finger into a 230V socket and no matter how many times it gets shocked, or no matter how many times people tell it to stop, it just keeps jamming that finger in again and again and again.

 
D

Deleted member 17573

You constantly got that mantra about the bank guarantee too when EVERYONE who had more than 2 brain cells was saying it was nuts. Some people start to genuinely believe their own hype.
That, quite simply, is not true.
 

king5494

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I'm saying anything about Sailor himself, but there are a lot of arguments out there which can now be described as "Zombie" arguments. No matter how many times you knock them down, they drag themselves back up off the floor and lurch in your direction once more, over and over.
I agree some people just don't want to face reality that we're being screwed and look at the EU as our savior , Lisbon 2 moved the power to the core and the core is protecting itself as it believes it is the EU.
 

turdsl

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May God forgive Cowen and Lenihan for the disgrace they have brought on our country.
90 years of self government and this is the only one that sold us out to foreigners.
 


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