This Economist's excellent article on Brexit negotiations should be required reading

Patslatt1

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See https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21725335-eu-offers-many-menus-norwegian-turkish-there-no-la-carte-option-six

The complexity of trade agreements and economic ties will probably dictate a Brexit transition period of little change in trade for several years and, in my opinion, possibly as long as a decade.

The Economist article notes that negotiating Ireland's crossborder trade has been prioritised in the negotiations.

Going by the relatively frictionless trading flows under NAFTA between the USA and Canada,it is possible that similar arrangements could subject Ireland's trade with Northern Ireland to minimal physical checks. This would require a large investment in electronic and software tracking of shipments and crossborder transactions.
 


Spanner Island

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Project fear... €350 million per week to the NHS... taking back control... blah blah blah...

Clueless morons them Brexiteers... snake oil salespeople... every feckin' one of them...
 

Erudite Caveman

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Sobering article.

One conclusion is that all this cannot possibly be dealt with by March 2019. To give the European Parliament time to ratify the Article 50 divorce, its terms must be agreed by around October 2018. Businesses that have to plan ahead, such as airlines, need certainty long before that. Without a deal allowing them to fly after Brexit, airlines might have to stop selling advance tickets. Banks and others want to know the rules they will face by next spring. And that points to something else, which has long been assumed in Brussels and is slowly being accepted in London: that there must be a transition period after March 30th 2019.
 

raetsel

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And although Britain has conceded that it faces an exit bill, its size is highly contentious.
I missed that news. They obviously slipped that one out very, very quietly, and nobody has yet told Boorish Johnson who still thinks he's going to be listening to whistling Europeans.
Only a few months ago the Mail (or was it the Express, or Telegraph) was assuring everyone that the EU owed the UK money.
This entire Brexit farce has so far just been a litany of backtracking, broken promises and climb downs by its proponents.
There is a lot of humble pie on the table yet to be swallowed, but it will still be a lot more appetising than the chlorinated chicken, hormone laced beef and GM veggies that Liam Fox would like to see on the plebs' menu.............
 

Spanner Island

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I missed that news. They obviously slipped that one out very, very quietly, and nobody has yet told Boorish Johnson who still thinks he's going to be listening to whistling Europeans.
Only a few months ago the Mail (or was it the Express, or Telegraph) was assuring everyone that the EU owed the UK money.
This entire Brexit farce has so far just been a litany of backtracking, broken promises and climb downs by its proponents.
There is a lot of humble pie on the table yet to be swallowed, but it will still be a lot more appetising than the chlorinated chicken, hormone laced beef and GM veggies that Liam Fox would like to see on the plebs' menu.............
Yeah... that was accpeted/admitted a few weeks back if memory serves... meeting obligations etc... which they'd have to anyway if they wanted to be taken seriously as 'Global Britain'...

It wouldn't be a great start to their bold new exploits around the world if they started by having welched on commitments they'd made to the EU as members of the EU. That wouldn't instill much confidence in anyone negotiating with them I wouldn't think...

It's the number that will be contentious although nobody is going to be able to even suggest or calculate a number until the feckin' Brits get their heads out of their holes and start dealing with reality...
 

Clanrickard

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The thing is the meatheads that voted for Brexit get their "news" from the Mail and the Sun and the like. They are highly unlikely to read the Economist.
 

Erudite Caveman

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The thing is the meatheads that voted for Brexit get their "news" from the Mail and the Sun and the like. They are highly unlikely to read the Economist.
But the type of Brexit that the Meatheads will be served is being negotiated by people who you would hope don't just rely on the Mail or Sun.

It s mind-boggling how much of a shambles it has been since the referendum, and May's positioning has been the most insane bit of all.
 

Erudite Caveman

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The deadline must be adhered to. Brexit is Brexit. Let the UK f#ck off into the darkness of its own making.
I've never believed that it wouldn't be extended, and looks more likely, as time goes on and May spends her time looking in her handbag for her car keys - for a car she doesn't own.
 

statsman

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I've never believed that it wouldn't be extended, and looks more likely, as time goes on and May spends her time looking in her handbag for her car keys - for a car she doesn't own.
I'm not convinced. The primary concern of the EU has to be self-preservation. Allowing the UK to bend the rules in any way is not something they'll ultimately be able to countenance. Article 50 says 2 years; I see no particular room for flexibility around that deadline.
 

Orbit v2

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I think there will be an extension, but the UK will pay a price to get it, and that might concentrate minds on how the eventual deal pans out.
 

Spanner Island

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I'm not convinced. The primary concern of the EU has to be self-preservation. Allowing the UK to bend the rules in any way is not something they'll ultimately be able to countenance. Article 50 says 2 years; I see no particular room for flexibility around that deadline.
The deadline could move... with this being unprecedented and A50 having been kind of thrown together under the assumption it would never be used.

Unlikely but not impossible... and even if the A50 deadline doesn't move I suspect long enough transition period(s) will be necessary.

It's a thin enough line for both sides to walk without cutting off their noses etc... although I reckon it's the UK that is bizarrely following a path where it's going to cut off its head in order to satisfy the Brexiteer madness...

Ah well... at this stage I just want the NI issue dealt with and let the UK f*** off with themselves to whatever fantasyland the Brexiteers have promised them...

At this stage there ain't going to be much enthusiasm for them staying even if they wanted to... although I'd fully expect the EU to accommodate a change of mind.
 

statsman

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The deadline could move... with this being unprecedented and A50 having been kind of thrown together under the assumption it would never be used.

Unlikely but not impossible... and even if the A50 deadline doesn't move I suspect long enough transition period(s) will be necessary.

It's a thin enough line for both sides to walk without cutting off their noses etc... although I reckon it's the UK that is bizarrely following a path where it's going to cut off its head in order to satisfy the Brexiteer madness...

Ah well... at this stage I just want the NI issue dealt with and let the UK f*** off with themselves to whatever fantasyland the Brexiteers have promised them...

At this stage there ain't going to be much enthusiasm for them staying even if they wanted to... although I'd fully expect the EU to accommodate a change of mind.
Article 50. 3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
So, that depends on the UK not peeing any one of the 27 during the negotiations. How likely is that?
 

Tribal

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I've never believed that it wouldn't be extended, and looks more likely, as time goes on and May spends her time looking in her handbag for her car keys - for a car she doesn't own.
The EU has too much to lose by not upholding the A50 deadline. Bending the rules would give every nascent euroskeptic group a leg up.

At the current trajectory it's doubtful that an agreement will be ready by Oct 2018, hard Brexit would be next and this could finally force an election. In any event the EU will have a transitional package already drafted that the UK will no option but to sign to avoid a hard brexit and if Corbyn wins that election then he can blame the Tories for wasting the negotiating period.

The UK will be out of the EU and probably still in general domestic disarray but planes will still fly, free movement will continue and another huge swath of the Express/Mail/Sun readership will have joined Victoria in British heaven, which probably looks like Blackpool with Spanish sun, has no foreigners, everything costs sixpence and jokes about the lesser races and nations aren't taboo.
 

gleeful

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The EU has too much to lose by not upholding the A50 deadline. Bending the rules would give every nascent euroskeptic group a leg up.

At the current trajectory it's doubtful that an agreement will be ready by Oct 2018, hard Brexit would be next and this could finally force an election. In any event the EU will have a transitional package already drafted that the UK will no option but to sign to avoid a hard brexit and if Corbyn wins that election then he can blame the Tories for wasting the negotiating period.

The UK will be out of the EU and probably still in general domestic disarray but planes will still fly, free movement will continue and another huge swath of the Express/Mail/Sun readership will have joined Victoria in British heaven, which probably looks like Blackpool with Spanish sun, has no foreigners, everything costs sixpence and jokes about the lesser races and nations aren't taboo.
Extending the A50 deadline requires a request from the UK and then agreement from 27 countries. That possibly involves agreement from up to 40 national and regional parliaments, just like a trade deal. How long would that take? 6 months?

Last minute deadline extensions are impossible. If we find ourselves around october 2018 with no deal and no extension, thats it - train wreck brexit ahoy.
 

statsman

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If an extension proves possible, and I repeat it seems unlikely, it might make things a bit easier. However, we all have to proceed on the basis that it won't happen and not delude ourselves to the contrary.
 

statsman

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The EU has too much to lose by not upholding the A50 deadline. Bending the rules would give every nascent euroskeptic group a leg up.

At the current trajectory it's doubtful that an agreement will be ready by Oct 2018, hard Brexit would be next and this could finally force an election. In any event the EU will have a transitional package already drafted that the UK will no option but to sign to avoid a hard brexit and if Corbyn wins that election then he can blame the Tories for wasting the negotiating period.

The UK will be out of the EU and probably still in general domestic disarray but planes will still fly, free movement will continue and another huge swath of the Express/Mail/Sun readership will have joined Victoria in British heaven, which probably looks like Blackpool with Spanish sun, has no foreigners, everything costs sixpence and jokes about the lesser races and nations aren't taboo.
If Corbyn continues to support the Tory line in the way he has, he might not win the election, either.
 

Tribal

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It's a thin enough line for both sides to walk without cutting off their noses etc...
All the EU has to do protect their interests and the UK can't complain as no one forced them to instigate A50.

In truth the UK is no longer an EU member in the true sense, May has to stand up and leave the room when issues regrading the EU 27 beyond March 2019 are being discussed.

At some stage soon it will dawn on the UK that the EU has already moved on and that Brexit is a side show.
 

gleeful

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If an extension proves possible, and I repeat it seems unlikely, it might make things a bit easier. However, we all have to proceed on the basis that it won't happen and not delude ourselves to the contrary.
You have to also wonder what pay-offs countries would demand in exchange for agreeing to a A50 extension. Countries like Greece or Bulgaria who have near zero trade with the UK so wouldn't care if they fall out in a train wreck or not. Everyone will look for a pay off.
 

statsman

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You have to also wonder what pay-offs countries would demand in exchange for agreeing to a A50 extension. Countries like Greece or Bulgaria who have near zero trade with the UK so wouldn't care if they fall out in a train wreck or not. Everyone will look for a pay off.
And what would Spain demand?
 


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