Tipperary North

Marcos the black

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With the result of the latest opinion poll (TV3) I predict that Tipp North will be one of those seats that FG will lose to Lab. The way I see it is that Lowry will top the poll (Unfortunately), albeit with a reduced excess, Labour will run Alan Kelly and he will secure 2nd seat, leaving Maire Hoctor of FF and Noel Coonan of Fg battling for 3rd seat. I can't realistically see Tipp North with NO FF TD, it has never happened in the history of the state as far as I'm aware, so I predict the FF will hold the last seat, leaving FG out of the picture. What do you think?
 


jackryan

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I wonder will Smith Junior run? I also think if FF don't win in Tipp North then the election books will have to be rewritten. FG's Coonan isn't that strong Local Election had them 7% behind FF. As long as lowry is around some natural FG support will go to him!
 

Marcos the black

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I wonder will Smith Junior run? I also think if FF don't win in Tipp North then the election books will have to be rewritten. FG's Coonan isn't that strong Local Election had them 7% behind FF. As long as lowry is around some natural FG support will go to him!
Can't see FF running 2. That surely would be crazy :confused:. Lowry can't really claim to be unofficial FG having supported FF in power. Don't think he'll get any "natural FG support" this time round!
 

jackryan

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Can't see FF running 2. That surely would be crazy :confused:. Lowry can't really claim to be unofficial FG having supported FF in power. Don't think he'll get any "natural FG support" this time round!
They might run 2 especially to mark Coonan and as there is now some of offally in it Smith junior would be well placed! As regards Lowry He does get former FG supporters and he'll hold on to that (unfortunately) If he wasn't around they'd be FGers
 

Sierra

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Is Lowry a certainty to stand for election next time around? I thought it was quite well known that he was considering not running, and instead letting his son run in his place (who would not be as popular at all)?
 

bondex

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Hoctor is inactive in Roscrea and the the part of Offaly annexed into North Tipp in 2007 - she has some support in parts of the Templemore area, and a bit in Thurles but support in her own Nenagh stomping ground collapsed in 2006 (her 2007 pool in Nenagh was very weak and she was only elected on Sen Kathleen O'Meara's transfers by less than 300 votes if I remember right). Her ineffective 21 months in the Dept of Health means she's damaged goods, she too nice to play dirty and with no one in Nenagh to transfer to her this time I can't see her being elected.
With the Smiths, as much as I dislike their type of FF/storke mafioso politics, there's a chance for a FF seat. Their Roscrea/Templemore base is very strong, Michael Smith Jr. polled very strongly in 2009, with the addition of 100s of FF votes in the annexed area of Offaly, the usual smear campaign they run on their opponents, the distribution of whiskey, promises, claps on the back and the usual guff I'd say there's a chance better chance of a Smith in Leinster House again. If there's not a FF seat in North Tipp (and perhaps there might not be) I'll literally eat my hat!
 

rockofcashel

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well north tipp used to be one of the bell weather constituencies.. if FF won two, they were in Government, if they won one, they weren't.. so to imagine they would win none would be cataclysmic for them

Every assumes Lowry will be fine, but the problem he has, is the part of Offaly that is brought into the area.. what connection does he have with them at all ? He'll really need to get a large fpv to stay ahead of others...

Everyone looks at North Tipp through the prism of what is, and what has historically been in the constituency, but the main parties will look for someone from the new part of the constituency, and that may change things completely
 

d7bohs

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How much of Offaly has been annexed? how many voters?
 

rockofcashel

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How much of Offaly has been annexed? how many voters?
Not 100% sure, but I bet it was part of Enrights decision not to stand again as well.. she wouldn't have fancied trawling all over North Tipp, as her base was cut up in the change as well
 

Marcos the black

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Don't think that the inclusion of part of Offaly will impact on candidate selection. Coonan actually probably stands best placed to benefit from this in fact as his strongholds are Templemore/Roscrea. He has virtually no support in Thurles, which is the base for Lowry. It will be an interesting one, but I wouldn't be betting my house on the fact that for the first time ever FF may have no TD's in Tipp North.
 

jackryan

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Don't think that the inclusion of part of Offaly will impact on candidate selection. Coonan actually probably stands best placed to benefit from this in fact as his strongholds are Templemore/Roscrea. He has virtually no support in Thurles, which is the base for Lowry. It will be an interesting one, but I wouldn't be betting my house on the fact that for the first time ever FF may have no TD's in Tipp North.
Funny Everyone is pencilling in Kelly for a seat (Which I myself would do) But in 1992 in the Spring tide when John Ryan who had deeper roots in the constituency (More like an indo)increased his vote by only 25 votes? So North Tipp didn't take to the tide!! Kelly has to build on O'Mearas vote which was not great and MEPs don't always do well at Generals: from TJ Maher to Mairead McGuinness! Still think he'll do it! No FFer in North Tipp most defo could happen but Coonan too could fall! If Lowry junior runs it redraws everything again!
 

jackryan

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You'd think coonan would be safe but he's so frigging useless we'll lose that one.
Wouldn't be at all suprised! there is a hardcore FF vote in North Tipp. Always remember Michael O'Kennedy was Min for Agri and closed Thurles Sugar Factory, His vote in the next election actually went up in Thurles!
 

stanley

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Lowry and Kelly you can mortgage your house on.
Final seat probably between Maire, Coonan and the Junior Monsignor.


When the Moriarty Report is printed Lowry will be history and resign immediate, he has dodged the bullet already as the Judge wanted to print "the money trail" aspect but the Govt said all or nothing, usual delay tactics by Biffo.

Lowry hides behind DOB's coat-tails and money (DOB finances the legal actions), but then again he has a habit of taking money from rich men, it is nice to read on this thread the son is not liked, the castration of this wished for dynasty is best secured at the earliest opportunity.
 
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When the Moriarty Report is printed Lowry will be history and resign immediate, he has dodged the bullet already as the Judge wanted to print "the money trail" aspect but the Govt said all or nothing, usual delay tactics by Biffo.

Lowry hides behind DOB's coat-tails and money (DOB finances the legal actions), but then again he has a habit of taking money from rich men, it is nice to read on this thread the son is not liked, the castration of this wished for dynasty is best secured at the earliest opportunity.
Would that it were so. The fact is that nobody up there in tipp cares.
I mean if the government runs to 2012 then u will have voters who were only 2 when the scandal broke... Justice delayed is justice denied.
 

redhead101

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Labour simply do not have a candidate who is popular locally.
I'm certainly not one of those people who believes that Alan Kelly will walk into the Dail at the next election, but to dismiss out of hand, the prospect of Labour winning a seat would seem to be bit out of kilter.
 

dotski_w_

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Funny Everyone is pencilling in Kelly for a seat (Which I myself would do) But in 1992 in the Spring tide when John Ryan who had deeper roots in the constituency (More like an indo)increased his vote by only 25 votes? So North Tipp didn't take to the tide!! Kelly has to build on O'Mearas vote which was not great and MEPs don't always do well at Generals
Far from certain for the reasons you give (my spreadsheet takes the percentage of the uniform swing in '92 into account and yes it does depress the outcome for LP). In the poll of polls (which is 23% FF, 28 FG , 30 LP nationally) it comes out very tight here at Lowry 29.9%, 20.5% FF, 18.7% FG, 20.8%, LP, and 3.8% SF

when I simulate the transfers that comes out as Lowry being safe (obviously!), but a scramble between LP/FG/FF, with LP and FG just scraping in ahead of FF. My gut feeling though is that Kelly is likely to do a wee bit better. Ryan's problem was in part that he always put some distance between himself and the party (for reasons I never really understood, given he'd chosen to join and represent them) - there was one election ('87 I think) where he even cut the bottom off the posters to remove the "Labour" tag, so I guess if he was marketing himself as an Indo he was never going to benefit from the Spring Tide as much.


But yeah, while probably LP gain, not a banker.
 


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