Tipperary Sth - Party Selection

LgCastell

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There has been some decent analysis on the Tipp Nth constituency with Kelly coming back to run and Lowry voicing his mind on the budget but what of the Sth

I'm just looking at VB now and my god Manseragh is painful to listen to ....
Is he running and who will be his running mate?

McGrath at this stage would seem to be running as an Indo FF at the mo and

Lab will prob go with Phil Prendergast but when is there convention?

Will FG run Hayes only or field a second. the latter may make sense by fielding Hayes in the north in cashel and maybe a second clonmel/cahir based candidate.. maybe jimmy o brien in fethard would be a good choice fethard is only a stones throw from clonmel so could provide a good base without threatening hayes in cashel

When will the selection conventions take place?
I'd say at the mo it looks like 1 FG Mattie (Indo/Indo FF) and I'm not sure of the 3rd is there room for two FG or could lab get in on a Gilmore Gale?
 
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LgCastell

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thanks james for that

As for Healy he did have a very good LE result and had a good 2007 election barely missing out... is he running? any confirmation

He could threaten Phils 1st Pref % as both are based in and around Clonmel...

Any news on FFs or FGs selection convention?
 

unrepresented citizen

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There was piece on this in today Nationalist.

Definite:

Fine Gael have selected Deputy Tom Hayes and Cllr Micheal Murphy.

WUAG have selected Cllr. Seamus Healy (no surprise there) and have joined forces with the United Left Alliance.

Expected:

Labour held there selection convention last night and were expected to select Phil Prendergast.

Sinn Fein are expected to select Cllr. Micheal Browne (Mayor of Cashel) at their convention tonight.

Unknown

The Green Pary has not set a date for their convention, they say they are going to run a candidate. The only definite thing is that it will not be Bernie Lennon again.

Fianna Fail have not selected a date for their convention. McGrath still outside the party and will run as an independent if "forced into that situation".

Personal I think that McGrath will run as an independent, as there were even issues with him been selected the last time. He has not confirmed what way he will vote on the budget and if he does vote against the goverment, which he has done in the past he could pick up a lot of support.

It is highly possible that we could have two independent/independent FF in the next goverment from Tipp Sth.
 

havesomeimagination

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As for Healy he did have a very good LE result and had a good 2007 election barely missing out... is he running? any confirmation

He could threaten Phils 1st Pref % as both are based in and around Clonmel...
yes Healy is running as part of the United Left Alliance
 

LgCastell

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john scott

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Mattie will be elected whether he runs as FF or Independent FF. Tom Hayes will be elected for FG and the last seat is between Healy and Prendergast. If the Gilmore gale is for real I suspect Lab will be successful. Mansergh will be defeated. Murphy the second FG candidate is impressive I'm told but there's not two FG seats in the constituency. Healy and Prendergast will eat into each other's votes and which ever of them is first eliminated the other will win the seat. Clonmel is fairly crowded with Healy, Prendergast, Ambrose (FF) and Murphy so Healy's vote will probably be down. He's also shoving on a bit as all the other candidates are younger. I know we shouldn't be ageist!!!
 

havesomeimagination

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WUAG did very well in the locals though, including winning a seat in Carrick and have a better local organisation than Labour.
 

unrepresented citizen

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LgCastell, looking at that it is a bit surprising. I don't know any thing about the party organisation for FG in Tipp Sth, but could it be the case of more party members from Clonmel than Fethard?

I would agree with Mattie getting elected no matter what way he runs. He is nearly always in papers and the only time you hear about Mansergh is him giving out about Mattie, who as a FFer seem very at ease when walking around Clonmel even with the present hostility towards FF.

I would see Healy getting much more 2nd preference votes than Prendergast, on top of the support WAUG all ready have. With 5 seat on the Clonmel Borough Council there is a lot of local support. In 2007 Healy had 5707 first preference compared to Prendergast 3400, and he was only ~65 votes from getting elected over Mansergh.

I wonder with Ambrose run, would she have much support outside of Clonmel? She does seem to be every where at the moment.
 

allprops

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Dissapointed to see healy in with the people before profit and SW. Don't think it will benefit him other than alienating reasonable voters who like him. It could push a few votes into PP's path.
 

SeanCormac

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LgCastell, looking at that it is a bit surprising. I don't know any thing about the party organisation for FG in Tipp Sth, but could it be the case of more party members from Clonmel than Fethard?


In fact there would be more party members in the Carrick/Fethard electoral! Jimmy O' Brien didn't put his name forward at convention, he has 4 children under the age of 10 and has just openeda new business in Fethard.
5 people put their names forward at convention in November. Cllr Liam Ahearn withdrew, leaving Brid Green (Clonmel) Cllr Joe Brennan (Carrick/Fethard) Tom Hayes TD(Tipperary) and Cllr Michael Murphy on the ballot paper, 2 candidates were to be selected, however Fine Gael HQ's directive was that one candidate should come from the Clonmel area, leaving Green and Murphy to battle it out.
 

unrepresented citizen

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That makes a lot of sense with Hayes having strong support in the west of Sth Tipp and no more near as much around Clonmel.

Jimmy O' Brien didn't put his name forward at convention, he has 4 children under the age of 10 and has just openeda new business in Fethard.
Tough time to be doing that.
 

AnFearDearg

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Prediction

McGrath will get in as an Independent candidate. Hayes to top the poll for FG. Remaining seat is a straight battle between Healy and Prendergast (both Clonmel candidates). I'd lean towards Healy but it will be close. Prendergast needs to run a strong campaign in the north and west of the constituency to stand any chance. From a FF perspective, Mansergh should step aside and let Ambrose run on her own. Mayor of Cashel, Michael Browne running for SF should poll well.
 

Mercurial

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McGrath will get in as an Independent candidate. Hayes to top the poll for FG. Remaining seat is a straight battle between Healy and Prendergast (both Clonmel candidates). I'd lean towards Healy but it will be close. Prendergast needs to run a strong campaign in the north and west of the constituency to stand any chance. From a FF perspective, Mansergh should step aside and let Ambrose run on her own. Mayor of Cashel, Michael Browne running for SF should poll well.
^ This seems reasonable.
 

1888bhoys

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Mayor of Cashel, Michael Browne running for SF should poll well. This is Rock of Cashel,s Dad for people that d,ont know .Best of luck to him and Roc.
 

tippsouth

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Paul Mcnally is running for the Greens and He'll struggle to get 500 votes.Browne of Sinn Fein might surprise some people but he still wont be elected.Tom Hayes will top the poll withthe final 2 seats going to Mattie Mcgrath,Seumus Healy.Martin Mansergh and Prendergast.I hope Mansergh is elected because he is one of the most experienced men in Iris politics and he is one of the most intelligent men in the Dail also.Murphy will hardly get in and the second Fianna Fail candidate probably Ambrose will struggle also.I cant see Mansergh getting in but he wont do as bad as some think
 

1888bhoys

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Paul Mcnally is running for the Greens and He'll struggle to get 500 votes.Browne of Sinn Fein might surprise some people but he still wont be elected.Tom Hayes will top the poll withthe final 2 seats going to Mattie Mcgrath,Seumus Healy.Martin Mansergh and Prendergast.I hope Mansergh is elected because he is one of the most experienced men in Iris politics and he is one of the most intelligent men in the Dail also.Murphy will hardly get in and the second Fianna Fail candidate probably Ambrose will struggle also.I cant see Mansergh getting in but he wont do as bad as some think
Tippsouth you are not far off the mark but a lot will depend on will Mattie run as an IND or for ff.I hope Browne for Sinn Fein does well.
 


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