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TNS MRBI poll - FF 33 (+9), FG 24 (-2), SF 16 (+2), Lab 5 (-2), Others 22 (-8)

Dame_Enda

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Ipsos MRBI poll - FF 33 (+9), FG 24 (-2), SF 16 (+2), Lab 5 (-2), Others 22 (-8)

Stunning recovery for FF. How quickly we forget. This is with DKs excluded. When included its FF 27 (+9), FG 20 (-2), Lab 4% (-1), SF 15% (+1), Ind/Other 18% (-6), DKs 16% (-2).

The poll shows the FF recovery strongest among the working classes, while FG is still the biggest party in Dublin and leads with the more prosperous AB social classes.

In some ways a little surprising. The last poll (don't remember by who) found FG rising to 30%. It was billed as a post-Brexit vote for a steady captain in troubled political waters.

The TNS poll was taken Monday-Tuesday during the row over abortion. So perhaps FG is being punished for its leader's resistance to change. Or perhaps the public is starting to tire of Kenny.
 
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ainm_eile

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So FG have lost all those borrowed votes it seems if this poll is accurate. And everyone was just saying on the other forum how FG had gone to the dogs under Kenny thanks to the incompetence, arrogance, and gombeenism.

They are arguably in the same trap Labour was during the previous Dáil - they can't afford to call an election so they are at FF's mercy. I don't see how they can recover in the short term, and the longer they stay, the more chances there are for scandals from the previous term to spill out and weaken them. Already you have stunts like Kenny appointing James Reilly as deputy leader, which is suggestive of scandals on the horizon.

I would not be surprised if FG has been losing activists over the past few years, but I am not in a position to give any estimates on this subject.
 

EUrJokingMeRight

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All polls are basically lies to try and herd the narrative of the sheep.

Same hocus pocus as ratings agencies.

We know how reliable they are huh.
 

cogar

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The Independents are deserting to FF.

FG is dropping.

SF have found their level with a small gain.


FG will change leader early next year - sooner than Enda hoped. But there will not be a coup.

FF gets all the kudos and is in power while not in government. The Independents or FF will not pull the plug - yet!
 

Dame_Enda

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Important to recognise though that even now, another GE would likely simply be FF replacing FG with an arrangement similar to that forced on FG. Indeed on 5% its possible Labour could be entirely wiped out. AdrianKavanaghs blog warned in the last GE that below 7% (I think) would be a point where Labour could be wiped out. Its possible their decline is continuing though it may have flatlined a bit on a "the only way is up" basis.

I would like to see the internals of the Others group in terms of how SF etc are doing. I think "Others" is an outdated term and unfair to smaller parties - not least given some of them are likely around where Labour is. But then D4 still likes Labour.
 

ainm_eile

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Important to recognise though that even now, another GE would likely simply be FF replacing FG with an arrangement similar to that forced on FG. Indeed on 5% its possible Labour could be entirely wiped out. AdrianKavanaghs blog warned in the last GE that below 7% (I think) would be a point where Labour could be wiped out. Its possible their decline is continuing though it may have flatlined a bit on a "the only way is up" basis.

I would like to see the internals of the Others group in terms of how SF etc are doing. I think "Others" is an outdated term and unfair to smaller parties - not least given some of them are likely around where Labour is. But then D4 still likes Labour.
With the SocDems and the Greens, they've no niche that is safe from being raided by younger and hungrier entities.
 

Dame_Enda

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With the SocDems and the Greens, they've no niche that is safe from being raided by younger and hungrier entities.
Certainly that is what the middle class Dublin elite want to be the case. But I would have thought that as middle class soft-left parties, the Greens and Soc Dems with their suits and ties would gain from the decline of Labour. I suspect with the internals if they are released we will discover the answer to that. 22% others is still a very powerful bloc.
 

derryman

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Are you telling me 62% would still vote FF FG LAB.
It seems Ireland is committed to gombeenism and corruption.
 

ainm_eile

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Certainly that is what the middle class Dublin elite want to be the case. But I would have thought that as middle class soft-left parties, the Greens and Soc Dems with their suits and ties would gain from the decline of Labour. I suspect with the internals if they are released we will discover the answer to that. 22% others is still a very powerful bloc.
SF gets the working class, SDs the lower middle class and Greens get the upper middle class vote, so Labour is kaput. They are likely already seeing activists defecting and finding it hard to recruit youngsters.

I would love to see the figures for Dublin, I'd say FFG are under serious pressure there.
 

Dame_Enda

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SF gets the working class, SDs the lower middle class and Greens get the upper middle class vote, so Labour is kaput. They are likely already seeing activists defecting and finding it hard to recruit youngsters.

I would love to see the figures for Dublin, I'd say FFG are under serious pressure there.
FG still leading in Dublin in the poll.
 

turdsl

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You just wonder how silly Fine Gael supporters have become,even last Sunday they were
telling us how great Kenny was,He has made the weak, poor and disabled suffer the most,
From his election in 2011 he has destroyed the party with a downward spiral ,losing support.Anyone who pointed this out was either a Shinner or a whinger or both.

My God there are posters here saying he would do a good job in the EU for us,
How deluded those people have become. I voted for the party for 40 years including 2011
Ijust cannot undrstand why people voted for him this year.Fine Gael members must have
found it very distressing over the last 4 years they way he was not just destroying the party but people as well.

Nobody but Mr Kenny could have handed the reins back to Fianna Fail so quick.
Why did the members not shout stop.They just sat silently by like they did when
the character of Sergeant McCabe was been attacked, Did the expect the electorate
to forget all this.
 

Gin Soaked

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Are you telling me 62% would still vote FF FG LAB.
It seems Ireland is committed to gombeenism and corruption.
AAA are lunatics. Indos mean non functioning govt and some people, bizzarly, think SF are a cult who have a less than clean past.

No surprise at all.

And saying that SF and indos are not capable of corruption is utter hubris.
 

Henry94.

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The Independents are punished for going in to government and FF are rewarded for staying out. Meanwhile 4 out of 5 people think Britain was wrong to leave the EU. It seems to me the Irish have given up on independence or even Home Rule. We could abolish the Dail and be run straight from Brussels and live happily without democracy.
 

tigerben

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It's more the independent voter being totally disgusted with those Endapendents and Kenny being seen a weak. This poll was obviously known in last nights FG parliamentary meeting and hence why Kenny's leadership was questioned . Normally the summer time is good for the government parties but its been bin charges , water charges , car insurance , charity scandals, Shane Ross ect .
 

Barna

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All polls are basically lies to try and herd the narrative of the sheep.

Same hocus pocus as ratings agencies.

We know how reliable they are huh.
Exactly.
The only poll that really matters is a General Election.
This one will give people who used to vote for the FFailures a reason to think about voting for them again though.
These type of people are easily led.
 

Dame_Enda

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FF made the insane decision to be one of only 3-15 states to open the labour market to the Accession states. To this day billions are having to be spent on their needs that could otherwise be spent on ours. FF sat on their hands as Irish Ferries replaced nearly their entire Irish workforce with a Latvian yellow pack one and reflagged their vessels to avoid Irish labour law. FF are no friends of the working class whatever they may say. And where the power of the Church in our schools is concerned the same applies. They want to protect it even more so than FG.
 

Barna

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Stunning recovery for FF. How quickly we forget. This is with DKs excluded. When included its FF 27 (+9), FG 20 (-2), Lab 4% (-1), SF 15% (+1), Ind/Other 18% (-6), DKs 16% (-2).

Its worth remembering TNS were one of only two pollsters in the last week to predict a Leave vote in the UK. Also in 2002 they were the only one to pick up the PD recovery.

The poll shows the FF recovery strongest among the working classes, while FG is still the biggest party in Dublin and leads with the more prosperous AB social classes.

In some ways a little surprising. The last poll (don't remember by who) found FG rising to 30%. It was billed as a post-Brexit vote for a steady captain in troubled political waters.

The TNS poll was taken Monday-Tuesday during the row over abortion. So perhaps FG is being punished for its leader's resistance to change. Or perhaps the public is starting to tire of Kenny.
TINA is dead.
The funeral is happening soon.
 

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