Tomorrow's UK Reshuffle

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,965
So, by far the most likely outcome of the election tonight is a Tory majority. It might be big, it might be small - but it's a very small minority of polls that suggest a hung Parliament, and none suggest Labour being the biggest party.

So in some form, Theresa May is likely to be back in Number 10 tomorrow putting together her new Cabinet.

The approach she'll take is anyone's guess. You'd think that after an election campaign that tried to bill her as the strong and stable candidate, and running into EU negotiations in a matter of days, she may avoid radical changes and plump for continuity. Had she had a better campaign, Theresa May might have come back with greater authority to sack some underperforming ministers (like Boris). But given how wounded the campaign has left her, unless she comes back with a stonking majority, her room for manouvre might be more limited.

The other difference with her first cabinet appointments is that last July, she was (technically) a remainer trying to convince Brexiteers that she could be trusted to get on with Brexit. By now, no one doubts that she is in the business of a hard Brexit. So whereas in July she needed to promote Brexiteers like Boris, Leadsom and Priti Patel, this time she might feel more comfortable ditching them.
 


Deadlock

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 4, 2011
Messages
6,170
The other difference with her first cabinet appointments is that last July, she was (technically) a remainer trying to convince Brexiteers that she could be trusted to get on with Brexit. By now, no one doubts that she is in the business of a hard Brexit. So whereas in July she needed to promote Brexiteers like Boris, Leadsom and Priti Patel, this time she might feel more comfortable ditching them.
A U turn too far - even for May - I think.
 

Cruimh

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 30, 2010
Messages
83,462

President Bartlet

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 17, 2006
Messages
9,368
Boris has apparently been told he is safe - though he should either be demoted from ther Foreign Office or sacked altogether - Tessie claimed on QT that she had 'balls' - if she had she would do this then - but some how I doubt it
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,965
My thoughts on what could happen:

Chancellor
There was a pretty big rift between No 10 and No 11 over the Tory plans for tax rates and the attempt in the budget to increase NI for the self-employed. Hammond's people and May's CoS Nick Timothy have been briefing against each other. Timothy's own stock has fallen though as he was the architect of the dementia tax.

There's some chance Hammond could be moved. No 10 seem to think he has a political tin ear. He's the strongest voice for a softer Brexit. It would be a pretty big deal for him to be sacked after less than a year in the job.

Prediction: Hammond to remain where he is.
Runners and Riders: If Hammond does get sacked or moved, Amber Rudd has been rumoured to replace him and she's had a good election campaign. Michael Fallon could also be a dark horse.


Foreign Secretary
The big unknown. Boris is not liked or respected by No 10 but they also know he's got a power base, and is a risky proposition on the backbenches. But they've also been aggrieved at some of his antics as Foreign Secretary. The problem being that there's no where obvious to put him. Transport or Culture could both fit with some of his interests but they'd be clear demotions which would be humiliating for him to accept. Rumour is that he could be made Party Chairman.

Prediction: Boris out. Probably to Party Chairman, rather than another Department of State. But this depends on how strong a hand May feels like she's been dealt on Friday morning.
Runners and Riders: David Davis is a possibility here. He's liked by No 10, and if they want to move him from the Brexit Dept, a (symbolic) promotion to the Foreign Office would be most likely. Fallon could be a possibility. Hammond returning to his old Department couldn't be ruled out (though less likely than Davis or Fallon in my view).

Home Secretary
Amber Rudd has had a good election campaign. She's clearly valued by No 10, and evidently polls well given the extent to which the campaign pushed her out. It was a big promotion from DECC and, from May's perspective, she hasn't done a great deal wrong. She certainly won't be demoted and the only promotions would be Chancellor or Foreign Secretary, so her fate is tied to what happens to Hammond and Johnson.

Prediction: Rudd to remain. Outside chance she goes to the Treasury.
Runners and Riders: If Rudd goes to the Treasury, Damian Green or James Brokenshire both possible replacements. As with all of these, Michael Fallon is someone who No 10 would probably trust in almost any job so could be a contender too. I think given the current security situation, I think Brokenshire might be the most likely as a former (long-standing) security minister.

Exiting the EU
David Davis is regarded highly by No 10, especially compared to the other Brexit ministers (Fox and Johnson). He's been trotted out quite a bit, and he tends to please No 10 in his defence of the PM. He won't be demoted. He could be moved if there's a vacancy at the Foreign Office (he's unlikely to go to the Home Office as he's much more of a civil liberties fan than May, which in the current environment would not play well). So it's either Foreign Office or staying at DExEU.
Ben Gummer, the current Minister for the Cabinet Office, is very close to May, and highly regarded. He's been rumoured as Davis' replacement.

Prediction: Davis to go to the Foreign Office.
Runners and Riders: Ben Gummer.
 

statsman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,055
So, by far the most likely outcome of the election tonight is a Tory majority. It might be big, it might be small - but it's a very small minority of polls that suggest a hung Parliament, and none suggest Labour being the biggest party.

So in some form, Theresa May is likely to be back in Number 10 tomorrow putting together her new Cabinet.

The approach she'll take is anyone's guess. You'd think that after an election campaign that tried to bill her as the strong and stable candidate, and running into EU negotiations in a matter of days, she may avoid radical changes and plump for continuity. Had she had a better campaign, Theresa May might have come back with greater authority to sack some underperforming ministers (like Boris). But given how wounded the campaign has left her, unless she comes back with a stonking majority, her room for manouvre might be more limited.

The other difference with her first cabinet appointments is that last July, she was (technically) a remainer trying to convince Brexiteers that she could be trusted to get on with Brexit. By now, no one doubts that she is in the business of a hard Brexit. So whereas in July she needed to promote Brexiteers like Boris, Leadsom and Priti Patel, this time she might feel more comfortable ditching them.
The size of the Tory majority, assuming that the likely outcome comes to pass, is vital. If it's 100+, she can ignore the more hard-core Brexiteers, if not, she's stuck with them.
 

Deadlock

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 4, 2011
Messages
6,170
The size of the Tory majority, assuming that the likely outcome comes to pass, is vital. If it's 100+, she can ignore the more hard-core Brexiteers, if not, she's stuck with them.
They're so very integral to the bubble she's stuck in that I'd reckon she's stuck with them regardless of the size of her majority.
 

statsman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,055
They're so very integral to the bubble she's stuck in that I'd reckon she's stuck with them regardless of the size of her majority.
Possibly.
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,965
We must have been watching different election campaigns.
It depends how you define good.

For the purposes of a reshuffle, the only definition of a good campaign that matters is what No 10 thinks. And the fact that the party kept putting her out to put the case, chose her for the debate etc suggests that they thought she had a good campaign.
 

statsman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,055
We must have been watching different election campaigns.
It depends how you define good.

For the purposes of a reshuffle, the only definition of a good campaign that matters is what No 10 thinks. And the fact that the party kept putting her out to put the case, chose her for the debate etc suggests that they thought she had a good campaign.
She was less awful than her boss, and took on the jobs the boss was afraid to do.
 

Spanner Island

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 22, 2011
Messages
23,973
So, by far the most likely outcome of the election tonight is a Tory majority. It might be big, it might be small - but it's a very small minority of polls that suggest a hung Parliament, and none suggest Labour being the biggest party.

So in some form, Theresa May is likely to be back in Number 10 tomorrow putting together her new Cabinet.

The approach she'll take is anyone's guess. You'd think that after an election campaign that tried to bill her as the strong and stable candidate, and running into EU negotiations in a matter of days, she may avoid radical changes and plump for continuity. Had she had a better campaign, Theresa May might have come back with greater authority to sack some underperforming ministers (like Boris). But given how wounded the campaign has left her, unless she comes back with a stonking majority, her room for manouvre might be more limited.

The other difference with her first cabinet appointments is that last July, she was (technically) a remainer trying to convince Brexiteers that she could be trusted to get on with Brexit. By now, no one doubts that she is in the business of a hard Brexit. So whereas in July she needed to promote Brexiteers like Boris, Leadsom and Priti Patel, this time she might feel more comfortable ditching them.
Even if she comes back with a stonking majority she ain't all she was cracked up to be and/or cracked herself up to be... and everyone knows that now.

Last night on Newsnight Matthew Parris did an interesting bit on her by talking to some of her university chums and current colleagues etc.

It seems even those people don't really know her... a bit of an enigma she seems to be... to all and sundry... and now a weakened enigma regardless of the result...
 

'orebel

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 13, 2009
Messages
20,150

Spanner Island

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 22, 2011
Messages
23,973
My thoughts on what could happen:

Chancellor
There was a pretty big rift between No 10 and No 11 over the Tory plans for tax rates and the attempt in the budget to increase NI for the self-employed. Hammond's people and May's CoS Nick Timothy have been briefing against each other. Timothy's own stock has fallen though as he was the architect of the dementia tax.

There's some chance Hammond could be moved. No 10 seem to think he has a political tin ear. He's the strongest voice for a softer Brexit. It would be a pretty big deal for him to be sacked after less than a year in the job.

Prediction: Hammond to remain where he is.
Runners and Riders: If Hammond does get sacked or moved, Amber Rudd has been rumoured to replace him and she's had a good election campaign. Michael Fallon could also be a dark horse.
I suspect Michael Fallon would get it out of those two...

De Tory men won't be happy if de Tory wimin start getting all de plumb jobs...

Foreign Secretary
The big unknown. Boris is not liked or respected by No 10 but they also know he's got a power base, and is a risky proposition on the backbenches. But they've also been aggrieved at some of his antics as Foreign Secretary. The problem being that there's no where obvious to put him. Transport or Culture could both fit with some of his interests but they'd be clear demotions which would be humiliating for him to accept. Rumour is that he could be made Party Chairman.

Prediction: Boris out. Probably to Party Chairman, rather than another Department of State. But this depends on how strong a hand May feels like she's been dealt on Friday morning.
Runners and Riders: David Davis is a possibility here. He's liked by No 10, and if they want to move him from the Brexit Dept, a (symbolic) promotion to the Foreign Office would be most likely. Fallon could be a possibility. Hammond returning to his old Department couldn't be ruled out (though less likely than Davis or Fallon in my view).
Would they dare put Boris in transport and risk kicking off the Heathrow expansion row again?

If Boris goes I suspect Davis...

Home Secretary
Amber Rudd has had a good election campaign. She's clearly valued by No 10, and evidently polls well given the extent to which the campaign pushed her out. It was a big promotion from DECC and, from May's perspective, she hasn't done a great deal wrong. She certainly won't be demoted and the only promotions would be Chancellor or Foreign Secretary, so her fate is tied to what happens to Hammond and Johnson.

Prediction: Rudd to remain. Outside chance she goes to the Treasury.
Runners and Riders: If Rudd goes to the Treasury, Damian Green or James Brokenshire both possible replacements. As with all of these, Michael Fallon is someone who No 10 would probably trust in almost any job so could be a contender too. I think given the current security situation, I think Brokenshire might be the most likely as a former (long-standing) security minister.
Yeah... Rudd to stay at the Home Office.

Exiting the EU
David Davis is regarded highly by No 10, especially compared to the other Brexit ministers (Fox and Johnson). He's been trotted out quite a bit, and he tends to please No 10 in his defence of the PM. He won't be demoted. He could be moved if there's a vacancy at the Foreign Office (he's unlikely to go to the Home Office as he's much more of a civil liberties fan than May, which in the current environment would not play well). So it's either Foreign Office or staying at DExEU.
Ben Gummer, the current Minister for the Cabinet Office, is very close to May, and highly regarded. He's been rumoured as Davis' replacement.

Prediction: Davis to go to the Foreign Office.
Runners and Riders: Ben Gummer.
Who the f*** is Ben Gummer?

---------------------------

Or there may be no changes seeing as they're barely in their jobs a year... although it is surprising how jaded the May government appears to be after less than a year...

They all seem to have been in their current roles for much longer than a year...
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,965
I suspect Michael Fallon would get it out of those two...

De Tory men won't be happy if de Tory wimin start getting all de plumb jobs...
Two out of four great offices would still held by men, as they are at present.

Would they dare put Boris in transport and risk kicking off the Heathrow expansion row again?
No, I doubt it.

Who the f*** is Ben Gummer?
Cabinet Office minister. Very low profile but influential. He basically has the same job that Oliver Letwin had under Cameron.
 

Betson

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 7, 2013
Messages
17,342
If Hammond does get sacked or moved, Amber Rudd has been rumoured to replace him and she's had a good election campaign. .
She was the one with came up with the brainwave of making companies publish their list of foreign workers so as they could shamed out of hiring a high proportion of foreigners. This idea was quickly scrapped when comparisons of Nazi Germany were mentioned.

But she has very hard right tendencies which May likes.
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,965
She was the one with came up with the brainwave of making companies publish their list of foreign workers so as they could shamed out of hiring a high proportion of foreigners. This idea was quickly scrapped when comparisons of Nazi Germany were mentioned.

But she has very hard right tendencies which May likes.
She raised that at a conference speech. It wouldn't have found its way in there is May didn't approve of it being in there. Now, May might have approved because she liked the idea. Or she might have approved because she just wanted to throw the base some nice authoritarian meat.

But all of these things that people think should count against Rudd for a promotion (which I'd agree with) are precisely the reason May could give her a promotion.

Also, she wouldn't have been the Tory choice for the debate if she didn't focus group well.
 


New Threads

Most Replies

Top