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Tories Ahead of Labour In Scotland in Opinion Polls for Forthcoming Assembly Elections

General Urko

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Oh how the mighty have fallen, petunia The Tories are ahead of the Scottish Fake Socialist Party aka Labour in the latest opinion polls for the forthcoming Scottish Assembly elections!

The Tories' Return: New poll puts Conservatives ahead of Labour in Scotland | Coffee House

The latest poll puts The Tories on 19% and The Fake Socialists on 17%, The SNP are considered to be certainties to return with an increased majority, they may take 70 plus of the 129 seats and of those it's expected around 66 of the 73 will be First Past The Post seats!
They most definitely haven't gone away you know!petunia
 


Strawberry

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The Scottish Labour party is in disarray, that's why. Its not some resurgence in Scottish Toryism, they're haemorrhaging support to the SNP.
 

midlander12

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I had posted this last night in the old 'UK Labour leadership' thread, but this one seems more appropriate:-

As regards Corbyn, this is the latest opinion poll result tonight, days ahead of the local and regional polls -
CON: 38% (+5)
LAB: 30% (-2)
UKIP: 15% (-2)
LDEM: 5% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)

There have been a few polls lately (and I admit their record in the UK remains dubious) and while a couple have shown Lab marginally ahead, most have them at best tied and generally 3-5 points adrift. This at a time when the Tories are in tatters over Europe, Cameron's leadership and after their disastrous budget which led to IDS's departure. Last time the same set of council seats were contested, Lab won the popular vote by 38% to 31%, reflecting Milliband's leads of 7-10% at the time. If the current polls turn out to be correct, significant seat losses will ensure for Lab, a virtually unprecedented event for an opposition party a year after a GE. Worse still, they may end up third behind the Tories in Scotland - oh yeah, that's the place Corbyn was going to 'win back'. All of this will of course be brushed off as 'details' compared to Khan's likely victory in London, but it cannot mask the profound electoral mountain that Lab has to climb if it is to even hold its current number of seats in 2020.
 

President Bartlet

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Labour is fecked. Doesn't surprise me that the SNP are on course to increase their mandate.
They seem to be the only party
They should go for another Indpendence referendum
 

Strawberry

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It's not just the SCOTTISH Labour Party that's in disarray!
True, but the party is in a worse state in Scotland than in England or Wales. They lost 41 seats in Scotland at the last election, and they look set for a terrible showing in the assembly elections too.
 

President Bartlet

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They should have went for Andy Burnham as leader.

Surely if the elections go badly on Thursday there will be moves against Corbyn?
Then again Labour may surprise in Engalnd and Wales but will be lucky to hold their own
 

Dearghoul

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They should have went for Andy Burnham as leader.

Surely if the elections go badly on Thursday there will be moves against Corbyn?
Then again Labour may surprise in Engalnd and Wales but will be lucky to hold their own
A very evenhanded analysis.

Perhaps you should consider staying in the present tense however, as you appear to struggle with the past one.
 

midlander12

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True, but the party is in a worse state in Scotland than in England or Wales. They lost 41 seats in Scotland at the last election, and they look set for a terrible showing in the assembly elections too.
Oh indeed, so much so that Scottish independence would now be largely an electoral irrelevance for Labour - if they are ever to hold power again, they have to gain 100 seats in England (!!!), seeing as they've effectively written off 40 former bankers in Scotland.
 

ffc

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I still think Labour will be a comfortable second in Scotland, maybe slightly higher share of the vote than the GE.
Nicola hasn't done herself any favours by appearing with a copy of Mudoch's rag, the week of the Hillsborough verdict.


https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottishSun/status/726410788374732801

In the rest of the UK I think they will hit 35% of the national vote, lower than 2012, but better than the GE.

The London Mayor will be a Labour landslide, Sadiq might get 50% + and win on the first count.
 

blokesbloke

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They should have went for Andy Burnham as leader.

Surely if the elections go badly on Thursday there will be moves against Corbyn?
Then again Labour may surprise in Engalnd and Wales but will be lucky to hold their own
So true! Andy is adorable. I'd have voted Labour if he'd asked me to, staring at me with those pretty eyes!

I have no clue who to vote for in the locals. I don't support UKIP anymore, the Tories and Labour are eating themselves, there's some yellow party I think but I can't remember their name, and the Greens are nuts.

I may spoil my vote for the first time in my life as I can't not vote.
 

Dearghoul

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I still think Labour will be a comfortable second in Scotland, maybe slightly higher share of the vote than the GE.
Nicola hasn't done herself any favours by appearing with a copy of Mudoch's rag, the week of the Hillsborough verdict.


https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottishSun/status/726410788374732801

In the rest of the UK I think they will hit 35% of the national vote, lower than 2012, but better than the GE.

The London Mayor will be a Labour landslide, Sadiq might get 50% + and win on the first count.
It's really sad when it comes down to soundbite and image like this but that is, of course, what seems to matter ahead of substantial issues.

The labour share of the vote in the UK, and how low it might go, depends, I'd suggest on how divisive the referendum proves to the Tories. Effectively the game is out of their hands, and they're dependant on other results to stay in the premeirship.
 

Dearghoul

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So true! Andy is adorable. I'd have voted Labour if he'd asked me to, staring at me with those pretty eyes!

I have no clue who to vote for in the locals. I don't support UKIP anymore, the Tories and Labour are eating themselves, there's some yellow party I think but I can't remember their name, and the Greens are nuts.

I may spoil my vote for the first time in my life as I can't not vote.
Mr. Fickle despairs of UKIP!

Thoroughly disappointed in you B'sB. For quite some time you were the only good thing about that wretched bunch of chancers.

In the end was it their fisheries policy?
 

Cai

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True, but the party is in a worse state in Scotland than in England or Wales. They lost 41 seats in Scotland at the last election, and they look set for a terrible showing in the assembly elections too.
I reckon they'll take quite a hit in Wales on Thursday.
 

Strawberry

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So true! Andy is adorable. I'd have voted Labour if he'd asked me to, staring at me with those pretty eyes!

I have no clue who to vote for in the locals. I don't support UKIP anymore, the Tories and Labour are eating themselves, there's some yellow party I think but I can't remember their name, and the Greens are nuts.

I may spoil my vote for the first time in my life as I can't not vote.
How come you don't support UKIP anymore?
 

Cai

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I still think Labour will be a comfortable second in Scotland, maybe slightly higher share of the vote than the GE.
Nicola hasn't done herself any favours by appearing with a copy of Mudoch's rag
It was a photoshop job.
 

devoutcapitalist

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It depends what the turnout is in Scotland, if the turnout is low Labour will do better than expected as they get their hardcore vote out. By low turnout I mean less than 50% for the assembly election.

If they lose council seats in England then It serves them right for electing a clown like Corbyn as their leader, in Wales their support could be in the low 30's percentage wise.
 

devoutcapitalist

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As for the Tories 19% is hardly anything to be proud of, even under John Major in 1992 they managed to get 25.6% of the vote.

Then again I suppose the Tories would be deliriously happy if they breached 20% in Scotland these days.
 

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