Tories could easily win a big general election majority on opposition parties' vote splitting

Catahualpa

Well-known member
Joined
May 12, 2019
Messages
1,747
Website
irelandinhistory.blogspot.com
Another constituency poll. Tory lead in Esher and Walton down 14% since 2017 to 9%. Lib Dems beneficiaries. Illustrates the Lib Dems headed for good election in my opinion in vote share, but historically when they do well (as in 2010), they have trouble converting it into seats. This is Dominic Raab's seat.

Under their system that is a comfortable win for the Cons.

Looks good for the LDs on vote share nationally but once again

- will it translate into bums on seats?:unsure:
 


blinding

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 1, 2008
Messages
19,322
With Corbyn’s own party breaking his legs . The Lib-Dems would have to do astoundingly and turning that in to seats is another story under the British voting system .
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
25,245
Under their system that is a comfortable win for the Cons.

Looks good for the LDs on vote share nationally but once again

- will it translate into bums on seats?:unsure:
For the Tory Foreign Secretary to see a 38% majority reduced to a 9% majority would be a massive swing. Not enough to lose him the seat, but there are plenty of seats where the Tories are not sitting on 38% majorities! On that sort of swing, the LibDems would not take Esher and Walton, but they would take 22 other Tory seats.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
55,864
More Tory own goals. Candidate for Broadland , Nick Conrad, quoted from 2014 saying women should "keep their knickers on" to avoid being raped.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
55,864
Northwest England poll. Tories ahead of Labour 3%. However it was taken end of last month.


Yorkshire and Humberside poll.


And East Midlabds poll from mid to late October. Lib Dems splitting Remain vote again.


And Southeast poll. Tories down 23% here but still ahead. Labour also down, with Lib Dems gaining.

 
Last edited:

the secretary

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 29, 2013
Messages
6,344
Great info supplied here. I am not familiar with the layout and voting traditions across the UK.
What does this mean if it does materialise?
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
41,364
Great info supplied here. I am not familiar with the layout and voting traditions across the UK.
What does this mean if it does materialise?

We all are aware of that pal, particularly in the case of the North Eastern part of your Country.😂
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
55,864
Great info supplied here. I am not familiar with the layout and voting traditions across the UK.
What does this mean if it does materialise?
Most Labour seats in the north of England have very large majorities. It's not likely it will lose them somewhere like Sunderland South because the majority is in the tens of thousands. Sunderland voted heavily for Leave but is in the northeast. My reading of this is that Labour is going to be hammered in more middle class, student constituencies to the benefit of the Lib Dems, while in the north the Tories will make some gains. The Tories will lose nearly all their 13 seats in Scotland but compensate with Welsh gains. I think they are in overall majority territory if the polls stay like this.

Edit: I updated last post with Northeast figures.
 
Last edited:

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
55,864
Farage softening stance on his terms for a pact with Tories. His new conditions are that what he calls the clause allowing indefinite extensions should be removed, and secondly that alignment should only be in "a trade negotiation" whatever that means.


Also two more regional polls. West Midlands and East regions.


 

the secretary

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 29, 2013
Messages
6,344
We all are aware of that pal, particularly in the case of the North Eastern part of your Country.😂
Is the north eastern part of our country in the UK micky? I didn't think you would acknowledge that. That must be what too long working wit the DUP does to you.

I haven't a clue how the region's in England vote.
 
Last edited:

Dearghoul

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 8, 2013
Messages
9,835
Watch the Dames swingometer.

I had a plywood one out in the shed, but the swivel linking the arrow to the main board seems to have seized up. It's stuck fast on the 'no overall control' slice down on the right bottom.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top