Tradeoff between two metre and one metre social distancing properly analysed?

Patslatt1

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See https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext This Lancet study concludes that two metre social distancing is safer than one metre for avoiding Coronavirus C-19. For a simplified summary of the study, see 'Much lower risk' of Covid-19 spreading beyond one metre - study
The Lancet study leaves the question whether the extra safety is worth the tradeoff with increased economic disruption. With two metres,capacity reductions of well over half in restaurants, pubs, hairdressers,public transport and some other business sectors coupled with the risk of massively increased unemployment and a huge wave of business failures suggest the tradeoff would be very damaging,with the cure worse than the disease. In South Korea where massive widespread testing gives confidence in the reliability of the figures, the risk of death from C-19 for people under the age of fifty five is small, maybe no worse than seasonal flus,so a one metre limit wouldn't pose a grave risk to them. S. Korea's very low COVID death rates below age 60 suggest lockdowns should be lifted for that age bracket In Austria where social distancing is a metre since the reopening of the economy, no new outbreaks have occured so far. Maybe the Irish government should reopen with a one metre limit but make it clear to the public that two metres will be reimposed immediately if tracing and testing show that new outbreaks are occuring.
 


Patslatt1

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See https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext This Lancet study concludes that two metre social distancing is safer than one metre for avoiding Coronavirus C-19. For a simplified summary of the study, see 'Much lower risk' of Covid-19 spreading beyond one metre - study
The Lancet study leaves the question whether the extra safety is worth the tradeoff with increased economic disruption. With two metres,capacity reductions of well over half in restaurants, pubs, hairdressers,public transport and some other business sectors coupled with the risk of massively increased unemployment and a huge wave of business failures suggest the tradeoff would be very damaging,with the cure worse than the disease. In South Korea where massive widespread testing gives confidence in the reliability of the figures, the risk of death from C-19 for people under the age of fifty five is small, maybe no worse than seasonal flus,so a one metre limit wouldn't pose a grave risk to them. S. Korea's very low COVID death rates below age 60 suggest lockdowns should be lifted for that age bracket In Austria where social distancing is a metre since the reopening of the economy, no new outbreaks have occured so far. Maybe the Irish government should reopen with a one metre limit but make it clear to the public that two metres will be reimposed immediately if tracing and testing show that new outbreaks are occuring.
Restaurants and pubs are keen on one metre which for many represents survival.
 

Betson

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Restaurants and pubs are keen on one metre which for many represents survival.
99% certain it will be 1 meter by the 29th June when restaurants and some pubs which serve food are due to reopen.

The delay(supposed t be last week) in issuing guidelines for this reopening phase I suspect is down to the fact they will wait until it is 1 meter before issuing the guidelines.

On this phase I see a lot of pubs who previously did not serve food are also planning to open , some selling microwavable prepared stuff etc as a way to getting around the food rule , this comes as the Government confirmed that pubs do not need a restaurant licence to reopen on this earlier date.
 

recedite

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In South Korea where massive widespread testing gives confidence in the reliability of the figures, the risk of death from C-19 for people under the age of fifty five is small, maybe no worse than seasonal flus,so a one metre limit wouldn't pose a grave risk to them
How about 1 metre spacing for certain pubs, but patrons must show their age identity card at the door.
"Sorry, no over-55s allowed"
 

Patslatt1

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How about 1 metre spacing for certain pubs, but patrons must show their age identity card at the door.
"Sorry, no over-55s allowed"
That's logical based on mortalities for those over 55 but those people have a high voter turnout so it's a nonrunner!
 

recedite

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That's logical based on mortalities for those over 55 but those people have a high voter turnout so it's a nonrunner!
True enough.
Also, for reasons not fully understood, barring over 55's at the door would be ageist, even though barring under 21's at the door is not.
 

wombat

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99% certain it will be 1 meter by the 29th June when restaurants and some pubs which serve food are due to reopen.
Not sure it will happen by then but I suspect it will happen before too long as the 2m is not practical. In Western Australia, where the virus is contained, they allowed the pubs to reopen, seated service only with 1 m2 per customer
 

wombat

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On this phase I see a lot of pubs who previously did not serve food are also planning to open , some selling microwavable prepared stuff etc as a way to getting around the food rule , this comes as the Government confirmed that pubs do not need a restaurant licence to reopen on this earlier date.
It reminds me of the bad old days in Toronto where you could only get a beer on a Sunday with a meal. There was a kip called the Tara house who put cheese plates covered in plastic on the tables, which were taken up at the end of the night. Occasionally, some drunk would eat the mouldy cheese and it would have to be replaced. :)
 

Patslatt1

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Not sure it will happen by then but I suspect it will happen before too long as the 2m is not practical. In Western Australia, where the virus is contained, they allowed the pubs to reopen, seated service only with 1 m2 per customer
1.5 METRES?
1.5 metres would cut the infection risk from 3% to a level between 3% and 1.5%, maybe 2.3%. We shouldn't necessarily confine the choice to 1 or 2 metres.
 

wombat

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1.5 METRES?
1.5 metres would cut the infection risk from 3% to a level between 3% and 1.5%, maybe 2.3%. We shouldn't necessarily confine the choice to 1 or 2 metres.
Better to keep it simple.
 

Betson

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Not sure it will happen by then but I suspect it will happen before too long as the 2m is not practical. In Western Australia, where the virus is contained, they allowed the pubs to reopen, seated service only with 1 m2 per customer

I reckon it will , if not by the 29th certainly a few weeks after by 20th July when all the pubs can reopen.

But I think they will reduce it by the 29th or it is will not be worth the time of many restaurants or pubs reopening , at 2 meters most would be unviable with such a reduced capacity.
 

Betson

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As for 1M , 1.5M , 2M etc I would hate to be the barman later in the evening trying to get lads to stick to the guidelines , trying to maintain the social distancing rules when lads have a good few down them will be like trying to herd cats.
 

wombat

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As for 1M , 1.5M , 2M etc I would hate to be the barman later in the evening trying to get lads to stick to the guidelines , trying to maintain the social distancing rules when lads have a good few down them will be like trying to herd cats.
My guess is that we'll have to sit at tables.
 

Betson

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My guess is that we'll have to sit at tables.

That will most likely be in the guidelines alright as well as max 4 people at a table , talk of no music , no matches on tv etc , sounds a very sterile experience. Many will decide to stay at home if these rules are strictly adhered to.

But how practical will it be to enforce these rules in pubs , not very I think.

I see in Sky news yesterday that many bars in Spain were very busy for the restarting of the Spanish football season , with bars showing match's and large crowds coming out to see them. The Sky reporter said there was not much evidence of social distancing going on.
 

recedite

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That will most likely be in the guidelines alright as well as max 4 people at a table , talk of no music , no matches on tv etc , sounds a very sterile experience.
Throw in cheap beer at €2.50 a pint and you have a typical night out at Wetherspoons.
But its not sterile at all, I can assure you :D
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Yerrah I wouldn't worry about it Pat. We can always fake the economic indicators. Maybe about time we reported another 15% jump in GDP :)
 


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