Trump Foreign Policy thread


Dame_Enda

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Degeneration X

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[video=youtube;XJtRG7EINf4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJtRG7EINf4[/video]

Will Trump fully extricate the US from Afghanistan and will Iraq be next?
 

Dame_Enda

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Bad move to leave Afghanistan though I understand he's just halving US troops levels there. It would be like the Fall of Saigon, which turned 50000 US military fatalities into something that happened in vain. The Taliban controls more territory now than it did on 911.
 

owedtojoy

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Bad move to leave Afghanistan though I understand he's just halving US troops levels there. It would be like the Fall of Saigon, which turned 50000 US military fatalities into something that happened in vain. The Taliban controls more territory now than it did on 911.
Incredibly bad move to pull them out just as the talks with the Taliban are starting.

This is the "world's best negotiator", right?

So why do you give the enemy a massive concession with no reciprocal gesture just as talks are starting? You might as well ask them what they want, and give them to them - just like Trump did in Syria.

This is the Taliban who enabled the murder of 3,000 civilians in Trump's home town on 9/11. Why is he doing them favours? Is it because they are now clients of Putin?
 

Dame_Enda

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Incredibly bad move to pull them out just as the talks with the Taliban are starting.

This is the "world's best negotiator", right?

So why do you give the enemy a massive concession with no reciprocal gesture just as talks are starting? You might as well ask them what they want, and give them to them - just like Trump did in Syria.

This is the Taliban who enabled the murder of 3,000 civilians in Trump's home town on 9/11. Why is he doing them favours? Is it because they are now clients of Putin?
On the other hand the pre existing Afghanistan strategy since 2001 has failed.
 

GDPR

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On the other hand the pre existing Afghanistan strategy since 2001 has failed.
And then it hits you: the United States has had a number of different strategies for the war in Afghanistan since the invasion. To talk about "the pre existing Afghanistan strategy since 2001" shows a certain ignorance about America's longest war. Indeed, the Trump administration reviewed and adopted a new strategy for Afghanistan after coming into office.
 

Degeneration X

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On the other hand the pre existing Afghanistan strategy since 2001 has failed.
Also Bin Laden's being dead for almost eight years, they went into Afghanistan to get him and found him in Pakistan - a truly failed strategy.
 

Dame_Enda

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John Bolton saying today that the US wont leave Syria until Turkey promises not to attack the Kurds.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
A promise from Mr Erdogan? Well that hardly seems naive at all...
 

owedtojoy

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On the other hand the pre existing Afghanistan strategy since 2001 has failed.
So it is incumbent on the President to make the best of a bad job, using the finely-honed negotiating skills we were assured he possessed. Countries have lost wars, but won the subsequent peace.

That is not achieved by handing the place over to Putin and The Taliban, unconditionally.

For example, the US could bargain for new UN-supervised elections and a coalition Government, in return for withdrawal.

Before the US went into Afghanistan, there were millions of Afghan refugees and Tadjik refugees in Pakistan, fleeing the Taliban. Triggering a new refugee crisis on top of the ones already existing (for which Europe and the Middle East will pay the price) is not good deal-making, no matter what way you look at it.

That is just further de-stabilisation on top of what is there already. Same for Syria. Another million Kurdish refugees will not say much for Trump's negotiating skills.

Trump was elected because you and others argued his deal-making skills were so massive he would make up for other US weaknesses. No one said he would look at his hand and say "Aw. f**k it, I'm out" without even trying.

According to Wikipedia 4 million refugees fled to Pakistan up to 2001. By 2017, 75% had returned.

Afghans in Pakistan - Wikipedia
 

owedtojoy

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John Bolton saying today that the US wont leave Syria until Turkey promises not to attack the Kurds.
I do want US troops out of the Middle East, beyond a counter-terrorism presence. Oil is not as important a strategic commodity as it was in the time of President Eisenhower, and the US has its own oil reserves, its own gas, and renewable energy sources.

But the US has been part of the problem in the Middle East - it destabilised Iraq through a clumsy and ill-advised regime change, inadvertently initiating a massive new wave of civil wars, refugee crises and terrorism.

It would at least redeem itself by trying to re-stabilise and calm the region even as it arranges its departure. Besides, I do not anticipate the US abandoning Israel to its own devices.

But Trump seems to be a little bit of Bush (pushing regime change in Iran, strong support for Saudi Arabia) and a little bit of Obama (withdraw troops while fighting ISIS) and a little bit of himself (clumsy and impulsive). It does not add up to much.
 
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owedtojoy

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A good article on the contrasts between the Middle Eastern strategies of Trump and Obama.

Unlike Obama, Trump does not have a Middle East strategy, grand or otherwise. He has impulses.
E.g. Afghanistan. Obama made it clear that the commitment of the US to Afghanistan was not open-ended. He agreed to a moderate surge of troops (less than his generals were asking), but had a timetable for withdrawal.

Trump mocked Obama's strategy, agreed to the Generals demands for more troops, then lost interest. He now seems set on unconditional withdrawal, albeit a partial one. But the signal to the Taliban is unmistakable: The US will soon be gone, keep fighting, Taliban, and you will win.

Obama wanted to calm the waters in the Middle East, then shift the burden of policing it to America’s partners there, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, as the United States had done during the Cold War. Hence, his policies were aimed at the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, forging an Iran nuclear deal and restarting negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. This strategy could have enabled the United States to focus its attention on Asia.
Granted, this did not work out well - mainly due to Israeli and Saudi opposition, plus the rise of ISIS. But Trump is all over the place by comparison.

No, Trump is not like Obama on Middle East policy
 

Dame_Enda

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automaticforthepeople

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How did this thread make 10 pages when Trump does not understand what foreign policy is.

Trump reckons that if it's kosher with Kushner, then that's it.
 

owedtojoy

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Making a fool out of JOhn Bolton, Trump's National Security Adviser, who was assuring allies it was not going to happen without Turkish guarantees.

There are other rumours that Bolton's usefulness to Trump is at an end, and he going to get fired.

Either way, the Syria withdrawal is a typical Trump clusterf**k.

Washington Monthly | Trump's Foreign Policy Vacuum
 
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Betson

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Making a fool out of JOhn Bolton, Trump's National Security Adviser, who was assuring allies it was not going to happen without Turkish guarantees.

There are other rumours that Bolton's usefulness to Trump is at an end, and he going to get fired.

Either way, it is a typical Trump clusterf**k.

Washington Monthly | Trump's Foreign Policy Vacuum
Will ye make up yer minds , Trump critics outraged when they claimed that Bolton had undue influence just a few days ago and was directing foreign policy and now you rage when a report shows that Bolton has little influence.
 

owedtojoy

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Will ye make up yer minds , Trump critics outraged when they claimed that Bolton had undue influence just a few days ago and was directing foreign policy and now you rage when a report shows that Bolton has little influence.
I could not give a rat's ass if Trump fires his neo-conservative side-kick or not.

To me, it just shows this Presidency up as a third term for Dick Cheney, anyway.

The Syria "withdrawal" is a clusterf**k - do you not think so?
 
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