Trump trying to kill the WTO?

gleeful

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Trump is loading up protectionist tariffs on imported goods. Today its washing machines and solar panels. This is likely illegal under WTO rules:

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-trade-tariffs-southkorea/update-4-asia-fears-u-s-tariffs-on-washing-machines-solar-panels-just-the-start-idUSL4N1PI1AV

“China will work with other WTO members to resolutely defend its legitimate interests in response to the erroneous U.S. decision.”

So what happens when China brings a case at the WTO? Well, the US has been actively blocking the appointment of judges - meaning there is a massive backlog in cases.

https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21729462-rules-based-system-trade-faces-threats-beyond-trumps-tariffs-america-holds

"Trouble is brewing at the WTO’s court of appeals. It is meant to have seven serving judges, but has only five and by the end of the year will have just four. The Americans refuse to start the process of filling the spots, citing systemic concerns. What seemed an arcane procedural row has become what some call a “crisis”."

Cases are already taking 6 times longer on average than they used to. It seems that Trumps plan is to cause the WTO to implode and then once the global trade system is broken, he can do what he likes.

Where does this leave the Brexit plan to revert to WTO rules?
 


tsarbomb

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Dame_Enda

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The WTO system should be dismantled. Its merely a tool for weakening the West by relocating manufacturing and textiles to China and its satellites.
 

Trainwreck

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Trump is loading up protectionist tariffs on imported goods. Today its washing machines and solar panels. This is likely illegal under WTO rules:

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-trade-tariffs-southkorea/update-4-asia-fears-u-s-tariffs-on-washing-machines-solar-panels-just-the-start-idUSL4N1PI1AV

“China will work with other WTO members to resolutely defend its legitimate interests in response to the erroneous U.S. decision.”

So what happens when China brings a case at the WTO? Well, the US has been actively blocking the appointment of judges - meaning there is a massive backlog in cases.

https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21729462-rules-based-system-trade-faces-threats-beyond-trumps-tariffs-america-holds

"Trouble is brewing at the WTO’s court of appeals. It is meant to have seven serving judges, but has only five and by the end of the year will have just four. The Americans refuse to start the process of filling the spots, citing systemic concerns. What seemed an arcane procedural row has become what some call a “crisis”."

Cases are already taking 6 times longer on average than they used to. It seems that Trumps plan is to cause the WTO to implode and then once the global trade system is broken, he can do what he likes.

Where does this leave the Brexit plan to revert to WTO rules?

And the correct response, would be for the rest of the world to do nothing.

Like when the EU has massive subsidies and restrictions on trade, the best response is do nothing. Let the EU and American governments make American or US consumers pay more for a reduced choice of products. There is nothing you can do about that.

Making your own consumers do the same - pay more and get less - is ridiculous. A bit like trying to get someone to stop beating themselves over the head, by threatening to beat yourself on the head.
 

hollandia

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I see this development has the brexiteers scratching their heads. It would be quite an outcome if they didn't even get WTO terms, because their mate Trump scuppers the WTO...
 

statsman

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I see this development has the brexiteers scratching their heads. It would be quite an outcome if they didn't even get WTO terms, because their mate Trump scuppers the WTO...
My thoughts exactly. Who said Trump was all bad?
 

CookieMonster

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Trump is loading up protectionist tariffs on imported goods. Today its washing machines and solar panels. This is likely illegal under WTO rules:

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-trade-tariffs-southkorea/update-4-asia-fears-u-s-tariffs-on-washing-machines-solar-panels-just-the-start-idUSL4N1PI1AV

“China will work with other WTO members to resolutely defend its legitimate interests in response to the erroneous U.S. decision.”

So what happens when China brings a case at the WTO? Well, the US has been actively blocking the appointment of judges - meaning there is a massive backlog in cases.

https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21729462-rules-based-system-trade-faces-threats-beyond-trumps-tariffs-america-holds

"Trouble is brewing at the WTO’s court of appeals. It is meant to have seven serving judges, but has only five and by the end of the year will have just four. The Americans refuse to start the process of filling the spots, citing systemic concerns. What seemed an arcane procedural row has become what some call a “crisis”."

Cases are already taking 6 times longer on average than they used to. It seems that Trumps plan is to cause the WTO to implode and then once the global trade system is broken, he can do what he likes.

Where does this leave the Brexit plan to revert to WTO rules?
Trump doesn't know what he's doing. He's just doing things. When he's told he can't do those things he'll do other things.
 

Dublin 4

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I see this development has the brexiteers scratching their heads. It would be quite an outcome if they didn't even get WTO terms, because their mate Trump scuppers the WTO...
Not the slightest bit worried.

Who would worry about a hypothesis? :lol:

If worst came to the worst re the WTO
then Goodwill between the Commonwealth Nations would prevail. :lol:

Gonna need a better Project Fear again :lol:
 

gerhard dengler

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Trump is loading up protectionist tariffs on imported goods. Today its washing machines and solar panels. This is likely illegal under WTO rules:

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-trade-tariffs-southkorea/update-4-asia-fears-u-s-tariffs-on-washing-machines-solar-panels-just-the-start-idUSL4N1PI1AV

“China will work with other WTO members to resolutely defend its legitimate interests in response to the erroneous U.S. decision.”

So what happens when China brings a case at the WTO? Well, the US has been actively blocking the appointment of judges - meaning there is a massive backlog in cases.

https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21729462-rules-based-system-trade-faces-threats-beyond-trumps-tariffs-america-holds

"Trouble is brewing at the WTO’s court of appeals. It is meant to have seven serving judges, but has only five and by the end of the year will have just four. The Americans refuse to start the process of filling the spots, citing systemic concerns. What seemed an arcane procedural row has become what some call a “crisis”."

Cases are already taking 6 times longer on average than they used to. It seems that Trumps plan is to cause the WTO to implode and then once the global trade system is broken, he can do what he likes.

Where does this leave the Brexit plan to revert to WTO rules?
It's an interesting theory that you put forward here. If Trump is seeking to smash the WTO, then this could have ramifications for Brexit.
 

gleeful

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And the correct response, would be for the rest of the world to do nothing.

Like when the EU has massive subsidies and restrictions on trade, the best response is do nothing. Let the EU and American governments make American or US consumers pay more for a reduced choice of products. There is nothing you can do about that.

Making your own consumers do the same - pay more and get less - is ridiculous. A bit like trying to get someone to stop beating themselves over the head, by threatening to beat yourself on the head.
Back when Bush put tariffs on steel, the EU responded by putting tariffs on US exports from swing states in the upcoming election. Bush backed down more or less instantly.
 

GDPR

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Without the WTO and there is a hard brexit, could GB just trade on its own bespoke terms per country/organisation/company?
 

hollandia

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Just leaving this here...

EU plans to trade

An upcoming trade deal between the European Union and Australia and New Zealand will help to dramatically increase trade between the blocs, the EU’s trade commission has said.

Despite high-profile Brexiteers hoping Britain would do more trade with Commonwealth countries after Britain leaves the bloc, the EU has pulled away with a head-start in negotiating its own agreement with the two former British colonies.
 

firefly123

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I see this development has the brexiteers scratching their heads. It would be quite an outcome if they didn't even get WTO terms, because their mate Trump scuppers the WTO...
Do we still have the Helga? We could sell it to the British diplomatic corps
 

CookieMonster

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Back when Bush put tariffs on steel, the EU responded by putting tariffs on US exports from swing states in the upcoming election. Bush backed down more or less instantly.
Yeah... but no.... but yeah... but the EU is shíte, because.... IT JUST IS!!!
 

Spanner Island

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Without the WTO and there is a hard brexit, could GB just trade on its own bespoke terms per country/organisation/company?
The UK are going to need a hell of a lot of negotiators and probably even more patience...

Regardless... it's unlikely the world is gagging for the kind of free trade stuff Brexiteers have convinced themselves the world is gagging for... and when the quid pro quo price of such plans become clear it's possible many in the UK won't be gagging for it either... :roll:

And as for services which account for 80% of UK exports... well... yep... lots of negotiators and lots of patience...
 

tsarbomb

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Back when Bush put tariffs on steel, the EU responded by putting tariffs on US exports from swing states in the upcoming election. Bush backed down more or less instantly.
That's not true actually. The steel tariffs came into effect in March 2002 and were only lifted in December 2003. They were lifted because the steel industry had recovered and the US finally lost their appeal to the WTO on whether they were illegal (they were clearly illegal). It was this decision that allowed the EU and other parties to place reciprocal tariffs over twenty months after the US first acted.

It's all here....

https://piie.com/publications/chapters_preview/3632/04iie3632.pdf
 


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