I don't see many FF votes going to SF. SF got a strong nationalist vote in the republic at one time, but with the new dispensation in the north, they are being increasingly judged by their economic policies, which are a bit too far left for FF voters.
I think the FF left-wing vote wouldn't move further left than Labour.
But even if FF get the majority of the undecideds, that would only bring them to the low 30s at best, which would still be a minimum of 15-20 seats lost.No, I'm saying FF got more than their "fair share" (or what the pollsters thought was their fair share) of the undecideds, and I believe, for reasons given elsewhere, we could see a similar result next general election.
well, we'll not know for sure until the GE, but my own view is that there's a very large proportion of the population who have decided to vote against FF next time, who've never voted for anyone other than FF before. it's perhaps not surprising that a large number of these still aren't sure who they are voting for (as opposed to against) as they've never done it before.
Sure, some will return, but I've been around the block more than most here, and I've never come across the anti-FF feeling out there. They may go LP, they may go SF, they may even go FG, but I don't think too many will go home.
But I've not heard anyone come up with arguments that convince in either direction tbh .... we all have our gut feelings, and there's no 'killer punch' argument out there that in fairness wins it, is there?
The reason the "undecided" or the "soft" FF vote was retained was cos they said they were THE "SAFE" pair of hands for the economy!!...And the electorate believed them simply because of the celtic tiger gains. Now they believe/know for sure that this was simply an illusion created on the backs of their ever increasing "virtual" house prices and the inflated cost of their labour!!!...I agree there is no "killer punch" argument (if there was, the pollsters would be out of business), but if we compare the last election when the government was mired in scandal and internal division, the undecideds eventually came back to FF.
I know we had a booming economy at the time, but the opposition were not exactly promising hair-shirts.
All I can say is, if I was Kenny or Gilmore, after I had been told my party's poll ratings, my first question would be: "How many undecideds?"