• It has come to our attention that some users may have been "banned" when they tried to change their passwords after the site was hacked due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software. This would have occurred around the end of February and does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you believe you were affected by this, please contact a staff member or use the Contact us link at the bottom of any forum page.

Two or three cheers for IMF intervention?


patslatt

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Messages
13,693
The gridlocked Irish political system is verging on failure in implementing government austerity. The Greens can't bring themselves to abandon silly Celtic Tiger era promises not to introduce third level fees,a decision that could reduce universities to junior colleges in all but name and lead to a brain drain to the fee paying colleges in the UK and the US. Health Minister Harney admits that the billions in cuts in the health services must come from the residual budget slice left over after pay and pensions guaranteed by Croke Park,an approach that will gut frontline services. Her redundancy plan for clerical staff is unattractive compared to generous pay and golden handshakes and will find few takers. While Social Welfare Minister O'Cuiv is saying nothing is off the table,the government lacks the political strength to make major savings in social welfare. How would it look if public sector pensioners on pensions of €30,000 a year up were protected by the Croke Park agreement while old age pensions a fraction of that were cut?

The key to Ireland's economic future is a budget that will impress the bond market that the government is serious about austerity. That would drive down Ireland's punitive interest rates,allowing deficit financing to continue. But the government lacks the votes for a realistic budget,especially with Fianna Fail backbenchers like Mattie McGrath from South Tipperary distancing themselves from the government.

Would a general election clear the air and give a government the mandate needed for austerity? Austerity is a hard sell when some politicians and political parties will try to gain political advantage by claiming simplistically that taxing the rich can solve most or all of our problems.Labour's Gilmore has been very successful with soundbites that attack the government without giving specifics on how Labour would deal with the deficit. Maybe the electorate would see through this but more likely it seems prepared to give Labour a chance as a radical alternative to traditional civil war politics. So chances are an election would result in a Fine Gael/Labour Coalition with Labour an equal partner,a coalition that would repeat the gridlocked politics of the Garret Fitzgerald era.

In that event,the bond market would almost close down to Ireland,threatening economic chaos. The Irish may be giving two or three cheers for an IMF directed EU rescue in a matter of months. The public sector won't be cheering,though,as their pay and pensions would be slashed.
 

tempest

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 9, 2007
Messages
347
This Government have lost credibility with the people, the media, the EU (thought they wouldn't admit it), the markets and it's own party it would seem given recent resignations. It's too late for them. An election and a new administration with a fresh mandate is the only way we can be seen to turn the ship around.
 

Social Conscience

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2010
Messages
1,273
The bond markets have no trust in this goverment. Therefore as you pointed out a general election would clear the air & give the newly elected majority the mandate needed for austerity.

Otherwise instead of the IMF just been at the gates - they will be invited in and the public sector will be cut to pieces.
 

sport02

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 25, 2010
Messages
19,656
I think we need the IMF, and it may actually be good for us.
After listening to the founder of UL yesterday, he talked about our teachers being the best pad in europe, and probably in the world, and over 80% of the education budget taking up on wages, now if the croke park deal prevents cuts in public sector wages in the upcoming budget, I say three cheers to the IMF into this country.
They will not hestitate to put the public sector in its place.
 

Bismarck

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 7, 2010
Messages
452
This Government have lost credibility with the people, the media, the EU (thought they wouldn't admit it), the markets and it's own party it would seem given recent resignations. It's too late for them. An election and a new administration with a fresh mandate is the only way we can be seen to turn the ship around.
Can you explain how an election and a new govt would be any different? Do you think Labour would introduce harsh measures? What happens if Sinn Fein win 15 seats and independents win 10 more?
WHen would the budget be introduced? Assuming the election is called tomorrow - it would be held three weeks later and the budget is due to be introduced on Dec 6 - would there be a budget? Do you think the new administration would get up to speed in a few days?
 

bormotello

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Messages
12,174
This Government have lost credibility with the people, the media, the EU (thought they wouldn't admit it), the markets and it's own party it would seem given recent resignations. It's too late for them. An election and a new administration with a fresh mandate is the only way we can be seen to turn the ship around.
not only government, whole political establishment lost credibility
it is time to pay for years of competition in populism
 

PUFF DADDY

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 3, 2009
Messages
3,003
This Government have lost credibility with the people, the media, the EU (thought they wouldn't admit it), the markets and it's own party it would seem given recent resignations. It's too late for them. An election and a new administration with a fresh mandate is the only way we can be seen to turn the ship around.

I would have totally agree with you up to very recent.

However, looking at those int rates well over 7% now, I think that this country's prospects of turning a corner has gone beyond a change of government..IMF takeover, it is only a matter of time.

very depressing, though I would love to be proven wrong...:cry:
 

Sensible Head

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 19, 2009
Messages
905
IMF ?

Seriously its like slaves asking for a different master to hold the whip ;)

We should not be looking in that direction but should be solving our own problems.
 

patslatt

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Messages
13,693
Cowen's dithering undermined austerity

IMF ?

Seriously its like slaves asking for a different master to hold the whip ;)

We should not be looking in that direction but should be solving our own problems.
It's too late to choreograph a public sector reform based on the Croke Park agreement that would convince the bond market that productivity and natural wastage can reduce public admin costs. After all,it took three years for the HSE to get agreement to reform antiquated purchasing systems with trade unions,a feat that would take mere weeks or months in a major company.
 
Last edited:

lotus1

Member
Joined
Feb 3, 2009
Messages
28
In that event,the bond market would almost close down to Ireland,threatening economic chaos. The Irish may be giving two or three cheers for an IMF directed EU rescue in a matter of months. The public sector won't be cheering,though,as their pay and pensions would be slashed.[/QUOTE]

Do you think that some how you are going to be immune from any cuts ?
The IMF will be here alright but the sheer stupidity of some people wishing them upon us defies belief.

I look forward to your posts this time next year informing us of how great a country the IMF has made us !!
 

riker1969

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
1,796
The gridlocked Irish political system is verging on failure in implementing government austerity. The Greens can't bring themselves to abandon silly Celtic Tiger era promises not to introduce third level fees,a decision that could reduce universities to junior colleges in all but name and lead to a brain drain to the fee paying colleges in the UK and the US. Health Minister Harney admits that the billions in cuts in the health services must come from the residual budget slice left over after pay and pensions guaranteed by Croke Park,an approach that will gut frontline services. Her redundancy plan for clerical staff is unattractive compared to generous pay and golden handshakes and will find few takers. While Social Welfare Minister O'Cuiv is saying nothing is off the table,the government lacks the political strength to make major savings in social welfare. How would it look if public sector pensioners on pensions of €30,000 a year up were protected by the Croke Park agreement while old age pensions a fraction of that were cut?

The key to Ireland's economic future is a budget that will impress the bond market that the government is serious about austerity. That would drive down Ireland's punitive interest rates,allowing deficit financing to continue. But the government lacks the votes for a realistic budget,especially with Fianna Fail backbenchers like Mattie McGrath from South Tipperary distancing themselves from the government.

Would a general election clear the air and give a government the mandate needed for austerity? Austerity is a hard sell when some politicians and political parties will try to gain political advantage by claiming simplistically that taxing the rich can solve most or all of our problems.Labour's Gilmore has been very successful with soundbites that attack the government without giving specifics on how Labour would deal with the deficit. Maybe the electorate would see through this but more likely it seems prepared to give Labour a chance as a radical alternative to traditional civil war politics. So chances are an election would result in a Fine Gael/Labour Coalition with Labour an equal partner,a coalition that would repeat the gridlocked politics of the Garret Fitzgerald era.

In that event,the bond market would almost close down to Ireland,threatening economic chaos. The Irish may be giving two or three cheers for an IMF directed EU rescue in a matter of months. The public sector won't be cheering,though,as their pay and pensions would be slashed.
Pat-Croke park does not protect pensions. Anyway Pat you have the answers with your great site:
pat slattery « Life Lasting Success Blog
 

McDave

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 10, 2008
Messages
13,557
If the bond markets are looking for north of 7%, I'd have no objection to Ireland drawing down ECB/IMF funds at 5%. So long as our austerity budget makes it clear we're getting borrowing down to an absolute minimum, and we pass the requisite measures ourselves instead of EU/IMF bureaucrats identifying the cuts.

The question is can FF do the job. I fear not. So we need an immediate election, followed by a heavy duty austerity budget. And if the bond markets aren't happy with 4.5%, stuff them and their ludicrous profit margins, and let's resort to the ECB/IMF funds.
 

Goldencircle

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 2, 2010
Messages
1,202
I welcome the IMF.
Only ones getting worried are those with the most to lose.
And who incidentally deserve it most.
 

McDave

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 10, 2008
Messages
13,557
I look forward to your posts this time next year informing us of how great a country the IMF has made us !!
I don't wish the IMF on Ireland. But as an alternative to bond market extortion, it might be worth considering accessing ECB/IMF funds to give us options. Of course we'll have to implement swingeing cuts.

As for greatness, Ireland has forfeit any hopes on that score for at least a generation, if not our lifetimes. And that's nothing to do with the IMF. Or the ECB. Or the EU.
 

Squire Allworthy

Well-known member
Joined
May 31, 2007
Messages
1,404
Four components are needed.


  1. Lenihan has to be replaced and Biffo needs to be asked to stand down.
  2. There needs to be a plausible plan for addressing the budget deficit.
  3. A plan for stimulating economic growth is required.
  4. A statesman capable of getting on his hind legs and selling a difficult package whilst at the same time replacing the Minister of Finance.
Won't happen.


I would not welcome the IMF, they are likely to make an utter hash of it. Better to make such decisions yourself. It wont be pleasant but at least it would show some fibre in the political establishment.

If public sector cuts are needed better to get on with it and I would not worry too much about the Unions as their bargaining position is what exactly? If we don't agree we will close the country down? Well if the mess is not sorted the country will soon be insolvent and guess whose pay cheques will fail to arrive.

As for the Greens and Independents not agreeing to the budget would they want to be seen as the ones that caused the country to call for outside intervention?

One other point, at a time when the country is being expected to tighten its collective belt, what happens needs to be seen to be fair and fall on all equally. The rich must pay and the politicians must set the example. Also in difficult times I don't thing you can, on one hand, pump billions into banks and then on the other expect people to accept cuts that would mean them losing their homes. It would be very wrong. That particular problem needs to be addressed.

IMO intervention is almost inevitable.
 

Mister men

Well-known member
Joined
May 9, 2010
Messages
2,887
I'm willing to take the pain of the IMF if it means fairness across the board which is missing at present. The cosy cartel needs breaking.
 

paulp

Well-known member
Joined
May 5, 2007
Messages
7,324
I don't wish the IMF on Ireland. But as an alternative to bond market extortion, it might be worth considering accessing ECB/IMF funds to give us options. Of course we'll have to implement swingeing cuts.

As for greatness, Ireland has forfeit any hopes on that score for at least a generation, if not our lifetimes. And that's nothing to do with the IMF. Or the ECB. Or the EU.

what do we forfeit by going to EU/IMF

Today are budgets are subject to approval by Brussels, and the target for 2014 is agreed with Brussels.

I would assume that IMF/ECB would demand budget deficit to be slash to 3% by 2014 - which we're already planning.

so, we'd get cheaper money - I still don't see what we'd lose that we haven't already lost
 

gweedore

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 18, 2010
Messages
623
i'd welcome an international police force to slap cuffs on the bastards that created this mess it might give me some comfort as i sip my gruel
 
Top