UK Election Day 2019 Count and Results

Sync

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Voting day in the UK!

The final polls are in with the last poll of polls giving the Tories just under a 10% lead and a prediction of 58 seat majority.

Survation delivered the last poll with an 11 point lead for the Tories. They were most accurate last time, giving a 1 point lead to May on the eve of the vote.


Folks will vote until 10 pm, and an overall result won’t really be clear until dawn (unless it’s a blowout for the Tories).

It’s an epic battle between an unpopular Tory leader against an historically unpopular Labour leader with former PMs and MPs telling voters not to opt for their own parties.

SNP will dominate in Scotland, Lib Dem’s are trying to minimise their exposure after a promising opening collapsed after a poor campaign. The BP just collapsed.
 


Betson

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I think it will be tight , hung parliament cannot be ruled out. If there is a majority it will be a very small one for the Tory's. What's the bets the DUP end up holding the balance of power again , thus back to square one on Brexit.
 

Mickeymac

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I think it will be tight , hung parliament cannot be ruled out. If there is a majority it will be a very small one for the Tory's. What's the bets the DUP end up holding the balance of power again , thus back to square one on Brexit.

Surprised at your comments Dame, surely a repetition of the last debacle means NO BREXIT?
 

Dame_Enda

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Voting day in the UK!

The final polls are in with the last poll of polls giving the Tories just under a 10% lead and a prediction of 58 seat majority.

Survation delivered the last poll with an 11 point lead for the Tories. They were most accurate last time, giving a 1 point lead to May on the eve of the vote.


Folks will vote until 10 pm, and an overall result won’t really be clear until dawn (unless it’s a blowout for the Tories).

It’s an epic battle between an unpopular Tory leader against an historically unpopular Labour leader with former PMs and MPs telling voters not to opt for their own parties.

SNP will dominate in Scotland, Lib Dem’s are trying to minimise their exposure after a promising opening collapsed after a poor campaign. The BP just collapsed.
The Lib Dems are weathering the problems in the other pro-Union Scottish parties because of their uncompromising anti-Brexit stance. They support revoking Article 50 without a second referendum - a position too radical for even many Remainers in England and Wales.
 

Dame_Enda

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Surprised at your comments Dame, surely a repetition of the last debacle means NO BREXIT?
That was a quote by Betson, not me.
 

Betson

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Surprised at your comments Dame, surely a repetition of the last debacle means NO BREXIT?
The only definite way of no Brexit is a Lib Dem majority , even in these crazy times that is unlikely.

A hung parliament means the UK political civil war continues for another while anyway.
 

Mickeymac

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The Lib Dems are weathering the problems in the other pro-Union Scottish parties because of their uncompromising anti-Brexit stance. They support revoking Article 50 without a second referendum - a position too radical for even many Remainers in England and Wales.

Dame, you have very much to learn about Irish politics and Brexit in particular, I have explained all of this to you in the past and you simply ignore it.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dame, you have very much to learn about Irish politics and Brexit in particular, I have explained all of this to you in the past and you simply ignore it.
I dont deny that a repetition of the last election probably would mean no Brexit, unless the Tories would renegotiate the agreement to the DUP's satisfaction, which is unlikely.
 

Mickeymac

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I dont deny that a repetition of the last election probably would mean no Brexit, unless the Tories would renegotiate the agreement to the DUP's satisfaction, which is unlikely.

TORY'S 😁 NEGOTIATIONS😁 you are having laugh then go on to a one sided DUP "SATISFACTION"

Are you drunk?
 

Sync

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They support revoking Article 50 without a second referendum - a position too radical for even many Remainers in England and Wales.
It was a spectacularly bad move. One designed to appeal to only people who were already committed Lib Dem supporters. Who you didn’t need to appeal to.

It would be like the Tories recommitting to fox hunting or Labour tying the renationalise everything...
 

Dame_Enda

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Seems pretty clear to me that the undecideds are breaking for Labour, but will it be enough to deny Tories a working majority?

Skys Beth Rigby was saying last night that Labour sources in the North of England are nervous, and say that while there is movement towards them it isnt on the scale of 2017. Much of the movement to Labour seems to be in London.

The early counts will be weighted in Labours favour as traditionally staunch Labour constituencies like Houghton and Sunderland South (majority approx 12000) and Doncaster come in first. But watch for swings. Sunderland voted heavily for Leave. UKIP did very well in Sunderland Central in 2015 when they won 16%. If the Brexit party does as well in the north of England, it could tip the balance in some constituencies like Derby North and Workington. Indeed the YouGov poll showed Tony Blairs former constituency of Sedgefield going blue, though the lead is just 1%. The poll also showed John Redwood losing his seat Wokingham, but it's close. If he holds on it will be a good sign for Tories particularly in the Remain stronghold of London. Dominic Raab is also endangered as is IDS in Chingford where polls show it dead even. Darlington seems likely to go blue for the first time in 27 years.
 

Dame_Enda

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Constituency result timetables here. Tories expected to gain seats particularly in the midlands.

 

Sync

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Labour have endorsements fro the Mirror and Guardian
Tories get Telegraph, Express, Mail, Sun and Times
Lib Dems get the Economist
FT endorse no one, advising voting for pro-business and european candidates
Independent endorses tactical voting against a Bojo majority.
 

blinding

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I expect the Tories to get a 40 seat majority ( approx ) and maybe even a Tory Landslide .

‘ Get Brexit Done ' is a Great Slogan , fishing for the 52% 9 ( 17.4 million Voters ) and all the usual Tories . Swinson ( Lib-dem leader ) has had a disastrous Election Campaign which may save Labour from an Annihilation
 

USER1234

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Its going to be an interesting election alright, theres even talk that Borris may lose his seat!
 

firefly123

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Voting day in the UK!

The final polls are in with the last poll of polls giving the Tories just under a 10% lead and a prediction of 58 seat majority.

Survation delivered the last poll with an 11 point lead for the Tories. They were most accurate last time, giving a 1 point lead to May on the eve of the vote.


Folks will vote until 10 pm, and an overall result won’t really be clear until dawn (unless it’s a blowout for the Tories).

It’s an epic battle between an unpopular Tory leader against an historically unpopular Labour leader with former PMs and MPs telling voters not to opt for their own parties.

SNP will dominate in Scotland, Lib Dem’s are trying to minimise their exposure after a promising opening collapsed after a poor campaign. The BP just collapsed.
BP collapse is an understatement. Turned into a singularity that has now flashed out of existence on a quantum level would be more accurate. Sub amateur.
 

owedtojoy

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YouGov's MRP model prediction was right in 2017, both them and the sire Electoral Calculus have done a similar analysis. They match up pretty well, giving they Conservatives a comfortable margin over the 323 or so seats they need (assuming SF abstain).

arty2017 Votes2017 SeatsElect Calc
Pred Seats
YouGov
Pred Seats
CON43.5%318340339
LAB41.0%262233232
LIB7.6%121115
Brexit0.0%000
Green1.7%111
SNP3.1%354541
PlaidC0.5%424
UKIP1.9%000
Other0.7%000
DUP 1010n/a
SF 76n/a
SDLP 02n/a
NI Other 10n/a

The big caveat is that these models are based on past elections. There may be enough tactical voting and old party lines shifting to screw the predictions for this one.

Elsewhere, Electoral Calculus make a Conservative majority government 4/1 on (~80% chance), and "anything else" 4/1 (~20% chance). But Remain was odds on to win in 2016, as was Hillary Clinton, so it ain't over til it's over! :)
 


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