UK GE 2017 Opinion Polling Thread

ShinnerBot No.32564844524

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Oh wisest mods, please ensure this thread ascendeth mightly upon high in to thy UK GE 2017 forum...

One of the more interesting aspects of May's calling of the vote yesterday was the slew of opinion polls that coincided with the announcement. There are seven weeks to go which means that for those of us who are interested in such things, we will see a huge number of data points over the run up to the day itself. UK poll companies will no doubt be working overtime to get it right after Brexit, and being a UK election we get to witness the antics of Lynton Crosby and other elite election strategists putting their dark arts in to practice.

To get a taste of what happened last time, this article is a good start:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/lynton-crosby-and-dead-cat-won-election-conservatives-labour-intellectually-lazy

So...where do we stand?

As of yesterday:

Prof John Curtice from Strathclyde University conducted the analysis and said Labour’s collapse under Jeremy Corbyn helped explain the results.

A recent poll of polls put the Conservatives on 43 per cent of the vote and Labour on 27 per cent – a Tory lead of 16 points. Ukip and the Lib Dems were both on 10 per cent.

Wiki's poll of polls:



Guardian/ICM poll gives Conservatives 18-point lead over Labour

ICM carried out a state of the parties poll over the weekend. These are the first polling figures to be published since Theresa May’s announcement, although the fieldwork was carried out beforehand. Here are the figures.

Conservatives: 44% (up 1 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

Labour: 26% (up 1)

Ukip: 11% (no change)

Lib Dems: 10% (down 1)

Greens: 4% (no change)

Conservative lead: 18 points (no change)

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,052 adults aged 18+ online from 14 to 17 April 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
The Conservatives are heading for a landslide victory according to a string of recent polls. A poll of polls conducted in March by Electoral Calculus gives the Tories a 112-seat majority in Commons. It was based on more than 10,000 voters.

A round of weekend polls made it look even better for May.

A ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday gave the Tories a stonking 21% lead over Labour.

Seven weeks will be an eternity in opinion polling...fun times ahead! 11% to 21% of a Tory lead is a massive variance and we're only getting started. Also hat tip to Statsman and his other Opinion polling thread and how we should interpret polls:
http://www.politics.ie/forum/elections/256122-opinion-polls-caveat-emptor.html
 
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midlander12

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There will also be a very hands-on opinion poll in mid-campaign, with local elections in England (county councils), Scotland and Wales on 4 May, and first-time elections for local mayors (not to mention Manchester Gorton which is apparently going ahead!!) Of course the turnout will be very low, but they will show if Lab has any sign of life in them, and also how the LD's perform when they have multiple campaigns to run instead of a few well-focused byelections.
 

Round tower

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Any polls done yesterday after the election was called would not take them too seriously, must have been done by telephone, how many people was done, how many areas, they could not ave been big unless they had prior notice.
 

hollandia

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Oh wisest mods, please ensure this thread ascendeth mightly upon high in to thy UK GE 2017 forum...

One of the more interesting aspects of May's calling of the vote yesterday was the slew of opinion polls that coincided with the announcement. There are seven weeks to go which means that for those of us who are interested in such things, we will see a huge number of data points over the run up to the day itself. UK poll companies will no doubt be working overtime to get it right after Brexit, and being a UK election we get to witness the antics of Lynton Crosby and other elite election strategists putting their dark arts in to practice.

To get a taste of what happened last time, this article is a good start:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/lynton-crosby-and-dead-cat-won-election-conservatives-labour-intellectually-lazy

So...where do we stand?

As of yesterday:



Wiki's poll of polls:







Seven weeks will be an eternity in opinion polling...fun times ahead! 11% to 21% of a Tory lead is a massive variance and we're only getting started. Also hat tip to Statsman and his other Opinion polling thread and how we should interpret polls:
http://www.politics.ie/forum/elections/256122-opinion-polls-caveat-emptor.html
I loves me some number crunching... Chapeau.

Interesting discussion on rte news at one as to how a ten point lead won't necessarily mean a massive increase in the Tory majority, largely because Scotland is gone to both labour and the tories, and the fact that a seven point lead only garnered a 12 seat majority last time. Very few hard labour seats will change hands. And a rise in the fortune of the libdems is likely to come from remain soft tories (should such a rise actually occur). Throw in pending electoral fraud charges which may, or may not be pending, and some labour pols remembering that the tories and not corbyn are the enemy, and anything could happen in the next seven weeks.
 

Dame_Enda

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UK General Election polling is traditionally inaccurate. Its normally correct as to who is leading, but tends to exaggerate (unwittingly) the scale of the leads. 1997 was especially poor, with many polls giving Labour over around 20-30% leads. The links below are examples of poor polling accuracy, though the 2010 election was fairly accurate.

1997 election
2001 election
2005 election
2015 election

I think Opinium is closer to the truth, as it was one of the few to get Brexit right. I think there may be a Shy Corbyn vote as in the local elections last year.
 
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GDPR

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Is possible if T May runs the election on a re-hash of BREXIT, hoping to mobilise the Leavers (many of whom never voted before in a reliable way), she might be disappointed.

But that would require the Opposition Parties to actually fight on domestic issues, and not allow her to turn it into a Churchillian -style "Back Me Against Occupied Europe" lark.

The reality of life in Britain unless you are coasting on £50, 000 a year and crucially on the housing ladder is pretty sh*t. The trick of BREXIT was to convince people that was Junckers fault. All him and Merkel.

I suppose one day they will wake up. When the Tories flog off the Sacred Cow - the NHS - and they will do it in a New York minute. petunia
 

midlander12

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Actually the Optimum poll was a bit of an outlier - the polls (as listed on ukpollingreport.co.uk) have been pretty consistent for quite a while now:-

18 Apr 46 25 11 8 Con +21

17 Apr 44 26 12 11 Con +18

13 Apr 38 29 7 14 Con +9

13 Apr 46 25 11 9 Con +21

13 Apr 44 23 12 10 Con +21

6 Apr 42 25 11 11 Con +17

2 Apr 43 25 11 11 Con +18

27 Mar 43 25 11 10 Con +18

21 Mar 41 25 11 12 Con +16

19 Mar 45 26 9 10 Con +19

17 Mar 42 25 12 10 Con +17

17 Mar 41 28 8 13 Con +13

15 Mar 41 28 7 12 Con +13

14 Mar 44 27 10 9 Con +17

14 Mar 43 30 13 6 Con +13

9 Mar 44 25 10 11 Con +19

5 Mar 44 28 8 11 Con +16

28 Feb 42 25 11 12 Con +17

22 Feb 41 25 11 13 Con +16

19 Feb 44 26 8 13 Con +18

16 Feb 40 27 8 14 Con +13

14 Feb 40 29 13 9 Con +11

13 Feb 40 24 11 15 Con +16

10 Feb 41 26 11 11 Con +15

6 Feb 40 24 11 14 Con +16
 

making waves

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Is possible if T May runs the election on a re-hash of BREXIT, hoping to mobilise the Leavers (many of whom never voted before in a reliable way), she might be disappointed.

But that would require the Opposition Parties to actually fight on domestic issues, and not allow her to turn it into a Churchillian -style "Back Me Against Occupied Europe" lark.

The reality of life in Britain unless you are coasting on £50, 000 a year and crucially on the housing ladder is pretty sh*t. The trick of BREXIT was to convince people that was Junckers fault. All him and Merkel.

I suppose one day they will wake up. When the Tories flog off the Sacred Cow - the NHS - and they will do it in a New York minute. petunia
The issues of the election will be dictated by whether Corbyn deals with the Blairites, puts forward a radical left programme - and stops the Blairites sabotaging the election campaign.

The Blairites are actually in a catch 22 - after two years of sabotaging Corbyn's leadership - and wanting to see the LP take a hammering so that they can shaft Corbyn - their antics could result in a whole pile of them losing their political careers as they are dumped it of parliament.
 

midlander12

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The issues of the election will be dictated by whether Corbyn deals with the Blairites, puts forward a radical left programme - and stops the Blairites sabotaging the election campaign.

The Blairites are actually in a catch 22 - after two years of sabotaging Corbyn's leadership - and wanting to see the LP take a hammering so that they can shaft Corbyn - their antics could result in a whole pile of them losing their political careers as they are dumped it of parliament.
Yeah, a radical left programme, that's sure to work. As for your dreaded Blairites, quite a few of them have seen the writing on the wall and pulled out - or perhaps this was part of the sabotaging?

Oh, and the latest YouGov is 48/24.... in case you wanted to know, though I doubt you pay too much attention to opinion polls.
 

GDPR

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I can just Teresa going to Europe:

" Look we've had another election and quite a few people voted for us, well.. they are probably most of those who voted Tory or BREXIT before, but that's by the by.. look you had better give us what we want now"

- and them just sniggering.
 

Northsideman

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I can just Teresa going to Europe:

" Look we've had another election and quite a few people voted for us, well.. they are probably most of those who voted Tory or BREXIT before, but that's by the by.. look you had better give us what we want now"

- and them just sniggering.
After the French GE the snigger will be on the other side of those smug ba$tards mugs.
 

jmcc

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Is possible if T May runs the election on a re-hash of BREXIT, hoping to mobilise the Leavers (many of whom never voted before in a reliable way), she might be disappointed.

But that would require the Opposition Parties to actually fight on domestic issues, and not allow her to turn it into a Churchillian -style "Back Me Against Occupied Europe" lark.

The reality of life in Britain unless you are coasting on £50, 000 a year and crucially on the housing ladder is pretty sh*t. The trick of BREXIT was to convince people that was Junckers fault. All him and Merkel.

I suppose one day they will wake up. When the Tories flog off the Sacred Cow - the NHS - and they will do it in a New York minute. petunia
All valid points but given your history of being wrong about almost ever recent political event, is there a chance you might be right about this one? :)
 

GDPR

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All valid points but given your history of being wrong about almost ever recent political event, is there a chance you might be right about this one? :)
Right about what? You dont think life in Britain is basically sh*tty unless you are high earner, and even then not all that great unless you own your house?

Or that the 17 million voters vs 16 million isnt exactly an overwhelming mandate for BREXIT?

Or that T May has no plan except to wipe out Labour?

Which bit didnt you understand? :)
 

Breanainn

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YouGov poll:

Con 48% (+4)
Lab 24% (+1)
Lib Dems 12% (-)
UKIP 7% (-3)

Electoral Calculus Forecast:

Con 420 (+89)
Lab 143 (-89)
SNP 56 (-)
Lib Dem 9 (+1 on GE)
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 1
NI 18
 

jmcc

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Right about what? You dont think life in Britain is basically sh*tty unless you are high earner, and even then not all that great unless you own your house?

Or that the 17 million voters vs 16 million isnt exactly an overwhelming mandate for BREXIT?

Or that T May has no plan except to wipe out Labour?

Which bit didnt you understand? :)
I rely on people like you to explain the complexities of such matters. :) However a lot of EU immigrants seem to think life there is pretty good compared to their home countries.

You did expect Brexit to fail, didn't you? You didn't really anticipate the result of having Drunken Juncker and his gang of unelected maggots lecturing the British on what they should do?

This is a post-UK election whether you and others realise it. Scotland is already been written off and NI is being sidelined. The battle for control is in England and Wales. (There's also that rather inconvenient expenses story.)

Do you think that May will succeed or will she accidentally create a more powerful LibDems along with a fragmented Labour party and reabsorb some of the UKIP vote into the Tory vote?
 

GDPR

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I rely on people like you to explain the complexities of such matters. :) However a lot of EU immigrants seem to think life there is pretty good compared to their home countries.

You did expect Brexit to fail, didn't you? You didn't really anticipate the result of having Drunken Juncker and his gang of unelected maggots lecturing the British on what they should do?

This is a post-UK election whether you and others realise it. Scotland is already been written off and NI is being sidelined. The battle for control is in England and Wales. (There's also that rather inconvenient expenses story.)

Do you think that May will succeed or will she accidentally create a more powerful LibDems along with a fragmented Labour party and reabsorb some of the UKIP vote into the Tory vote?
That sounds like emotionalism and hysteria from you, to be honest.

I dont think you have much understanding why 17 million people vs 16 million voted BREXIT (and 9 million stayed at home).

Why dont you check out the constituencies guide I posted on the other thread, and number crunch them? Your detailed prediction will be fascinating, I am sure.
 

Novos

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Right about what? You dont think life in Britain is basically sh*tty unless you are high earner, and even then not all that great unless you own your house?

Or that the 17 million voters vs 16 million isnt exactly an overwhelming mandate for BREXIT?

Or that T May has no plan except to wipe out Labour?

Which bit didnt you understand? :)


Sounds like Dublin without the NHS to be fair.
 

jmcc

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That sounds like emotionalism and hysteria from you, to be honest.
You'll be calling me a feminist next. :)

I dont think you have much understanding why 17 million people vs 16 million voted BREXIT (and 9 million stayed at home).
And yet I predicted that they had a very good chance of winning when all you Remanians got it wrong.

Why dont you check out the constituencies guide I posted on the other thread, and number crunch them? Your detailed prediction will be fascinating, I am sure.
I hope that some candidates from my favourite party are running.
 

GDPR

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You'll be calling me a feminist next. :)

And yet I predicted that they had a very good chance of winning when all you Remanians got it wrong.

I hope that some candidates from my favourite party are running.
Waiting for your analysis, this is the polling thread after all.
 

Wascurito

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The issues of the election will be dictated by whether Corbyn deals with the Blairites, puts forward a radical left programme - and stops the Blairites sabotaging the election campaign.

The Blairites are actually in a catch 22 - after two years of sabotaging Corbyn's leadership - and wanting to see the LP take a hammering so that they can shaft Corbyn - their antics could result in a whole pile of them losing their political careers as they are dumped it of parliament.
Yes, Corbyn needs to go after the Blairites and crush those damned reactionary, caplitalist-roaders. Such a demonstration of Labour unity will guarantee a Tory defeat on June 8th.
 


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