UK GE - Predictions Only

livingstone

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Plenty of threads to discuss what you think will happen or why you think you're right or someone else is wrong.

This thread solely for predictions. Let's see whose come closest (only pre-10pm predictions count!).

Mine are (though fully accept that this is one of the hardest elections to translate predicted vote share into predicted seat share...) but here goes:

Overall Result:

Tories with a healthier majority than a lot are suggesting. c100 seat majority.

Vote Share Prediction:

Conservative - 44%
Labour - 33%
Liberal Democrat - 8%
UKIP - 3%
SNP - 4%
Green - 2%

Seat Prediction:

Conservative - 377
Labour - 199
SNP - 45
LibDem - 4
Green - 1
Plaid - 4
DUP - 8
UUP - 1
SF - 6
SDLP - 2

Plus the Speaker, plus one independent (Sylvia Hermon).
 


Lumpy Talbot

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No
Not sure what to make of the polls which have been the usual mess.

I have a feeling that the Tory majority will be there but slimmer than many were expecting. Anything less than a majority which reflects the Tory strategy in going to the country because they saw the main chance will probably do Theresa May in- the knives would come out on the back benches.

For devilment I'm going to go with an instinct that is telling me that the British electorate don't like too much confidence and security in a sitting PM and tend to re-balance unexpectedly...

Conservatives 41% share
Labour 37%
Lib Dems probably about 7%

and I'll agree on the minor positions. I would not be surprised though if the Tories either took an increased majority or ended up with too slim a majority.

This one has had something of the night about it all along and the Brexit vote may have encouraged more Labour to come out along with an increase in younger voters becoming aware that they need to vote to be heard after Brexit.

I realise now I can't call this one. Nothing would surprise me. The head says a significant Tory majority but the hairs on the back of my neck are trying to shake my head.
 

Zapped(CAPITALISMROTS)

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daxxdrake
Cons 41
Lab 35
Lib Dems 9
UKIP 3
SNP 3.5
Greens 2.5

Cons 345
Lab 221
Lib Dems 13
SNP 45
Greens 2
Plaid 4
DUP 7
UUP 2
S.F 6
SDLP 2
 

NYCKY

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I think the Tories will be back with a circa 70 seat majority.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Went and voted earlier on. I do find those party activists sitting outside the polling stations asking for people's register number annoying and again I explained that I never give out any information, politely as possible.

I don't like the fact that political parties can determine if you turned out to vote or not- they can gain advantage from that info and insights into it and I don't think they should have it.

To their credit they were wearing party rosettes which is not always the case and I particularly don't like those people who half make out that they are something to do with the count officialdom which is a major no-no in my book.

These two were alright with my explanation that I never give such info and weren't sniffy as I've experienced in the past. I did report one chap who was acting the official some years back and told the poll officer that the fellow was way beyond the legal limit and inside the door of the polling station as well which is illegal.
 

Hunter-Gatherer

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Prediction :
Labour lost
Corbyn sacked
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
My perceptions could be astray on my prediction though as I live in a solid Labour ward.l There isn't even a Lib-Dem poster until half a mile away and uniquely I haven't seen one Tory poster or banner on a house at all this election.

Far as I know the only waver known in the area is between Lib-Dem and Labour and even that is regarded as mildly shocking.

The Tories don't even bother coming into the area to canvass. Not seen one election leaflet in the door from them the whole campaign. To be honest I don't even known the Tory candidate's name and I had the ballot paper in my hand an hour and a half ago.
 

statsman

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Tories to get a 50 seat majority.
 

LookWhoItIs

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Went and voted earlier on. I do find those party activists sitting outside the polling stations asking for people's register number annoying and again I explained that I never give out any information, politely as possible.

I don't like the fact that political parties can determine if you turned out to vote or not- they can gain advantage from that info and insights into it and I don't think they should have it.

To their credit they were wearing party rosettes which is not always the case and I particularly don't like those people who half make out that they are something to do with the count officialdom which is a major no-no in my book.

These two were alright with my explanation that I never give such info and weren't sniffy as I've experienced in the past. I did report one chap who was acting the official some years back and told the poll officer that the fellow was way beyond the legal limit and inside the door of the polling station as well which is illegal.
Did ya wear a tin foil hat and turn off your cell phone:lol:
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Did ya wear a tin foil hat and turn off your cell phone:lol:
No I brought along a live orange cat and allowed the cat to touch the ballot paper and voted based on Barnaby's suggestion. He has quite well developed political sensibilities for a tabby and never mentions politics at all any time I've ever spoken to him on the subject.
 

GDPR

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No I brought along a live orange cat and allowed the cat to touch the ballot paper and voted based on Barnaby's suggestion. He has quite well developed political sensibilities for a tabby and never mentions politics at all any time I've ever spoken to him on the subject.
Tabbies arent orange, you spoofer ...

He voted tactically, didnt he?
 

Mad as Fish

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No I brought along a live orange cat and allowed the cat to touch the ballot paper and voted based on Barnaby's suggestion. He has quite well developed political sensibilities for a tabby and never mentions politics at all any time I've ever spoken to him on the subject.
Do you breed further toupees for the Donald from Barnaby, or has he had his knackers clapped between bricks?
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Tabbies arent orange, you spoofer ...

He voted tactically, didnt he?
Aren't they? I am the proud possessor of a cross-dressing cat in that case. He is extremely orange. To the point where I suspect he is looking forward to the marching season.

Anyway. I may have strayed slightly from the point of the OP but then that is pretty much the point of politics I suppose.
 


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