UK GE - Predictions Only

Mad as Fish

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Lumpy Talbot

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No
Tabby is a genetically expressed pattern independent of colour.
Oh I see. I am not well up on cats and am still being trained by the present one. No wonder he is somewhat aloof in conversation.

Edit. I have now been passed a note. 'Marmalade' is the spectrum description I should have used. Little ****er is definitely in favour of private ownership I know that much.
 

Breanainn

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Con 358
Lab 212
SNP 48
Lib Dem 10
DUP 7
SF 5
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3
Alliance 1
Green 1
UUP 1
Ind Unionist 1
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
I'm quite impressed this time around by the way Corbyn has handled himself during the campaign.

I thought he was too divisive a figure and wasn't helping Labour but he seems to have performed well enough to back off the anti-corbyn Blair apparatchiks inside the Labour party. I like the manifesto which was braver than I expected.

As Marina Hyde pointed out in the Guardian today no-one can respect the Tories for the plastic way they have gone about the campaign by holding fake rallies filled with party members in sealed hangars.

Hyde I don't recall being a political commentator before but in fairness she has nailed a few things about this election very well.

I can't see much I'd disagree with here in the Labour manifesto.

Scrap student tuition fees
Nationalisation of England's nine water companies.
Re-introduce the 50p rate of tax on the highest earners (above £123,000)
Income tax rate 45p on £80,000 and above
More free childcare, expanding free provisions for two, three and four year olds
Guarantee triple lock for pensioner incomes
End to zero hours contracts
Hire 10,000 new police officers, 3,000 new firefighters
Moves to charge companies a levy on salaries above £330,000
Deliver rail electrification "including in Wales and the South West".
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Better than Irish privatisations. 'Give everything to Denis O'Brien and anything he doesn't want give it to some nuns'.
 

jpc

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Tories a 35 seat majority tops
 

locke

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Conservative 349
Labour 216
SNP 47
Lib Dem 15
Plaid 3
Green 1
UKIP 0
Speaker 1
NI 18

Based on

Conservative 42.5%
Labour 33.5%
Lib Dem 11%
UKIP 5%
Greens 2.5%

Tories to pick up seats in the Midlands, the North and Scotland, but probably lose a few in London and the South-East and maybe Wales. Lib Dems to pick up in Scotland, London and the South-East. Labour to pick up in urban areas and the South, but lose seats in The Midlands and North.

That is a 48 seat Tory majority.
 

GDPR

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Aren't they? I am the proud possessor of a cross-dressing cat in that case. He is extremely orange. To the point where I suspect he is looking forward to the marching season.

Anyway. I may have strayed slightly from the point of the OP but then that is pretty much the point of politics I suppose.
Tabby Cat



Orange Cat



Eagle Cat

 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
May needs more than 342 seats or her decision to go to the country will look like it has backfired and the rumblings will begin on the backbenches.

She's gambling on increasing the 12 seat majority from 2015 and no improvement on that will see her judgement come into question.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Better than Irish privatisations. 'Give everything to Denis O'Brien and anything he doesn't want give it to some nuns'.
What has been given to Denis O'Brien in Irish privatisations?
 

hiding behind a poster

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I'm going for a Conservative majority between 40 and 50, it's a difficult election for swingometers as unusually both big parties are likely to see their vote share increase. Obviously the big imponderable is where the collapsing UKIP vote will go, it's easy to say it'll go Tory because they're more Brexity than Labour, but that ignores the fact that UKIP also picked up lots of votes in the industrial north from Labour voters who are basically wired not to vote Tory, so those votes may go back home to Labour, or indeed not turn out, and thus limit potential Conservative gains. For me the first key number to watch for is Labour and 35% - if they hit that figure they should gain seats, and reach at least 250 overall, and if they do that, with the SNP, PC and Northern Ireland making up about 70 more seats, May can then only barely scrape a majority, if even that. The second key number is the Tories and 40% - below that they, or more accurately Theresa May, are in big trouble.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Strange how this campaign started out as the one that would finish off Corbyn at least in the eyes of the Tories but towards the end of the campaign the squeaky bum began to look more comfortable in a grey skirt.
 


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