UK GE Results Thread

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Separate thread for UK GE results

Party vote not as signifcant as it in in Irish elections as a party getting 50% or 70% makes no difference as they still get 1 seat but would expect Torys to get a higher share of vote.

Seat predictions
Torys .................... 323
Labour................... 237
LD..........................15
SNP..........................51
Sinn Fein..................6
DUP.........................6
SDLP.......................3
UUP.......................1
Green ....................1
Ind Unionist.............1
Alliance...................1
Plaid Cymru..............4
Bercow...................1

Tory gamble to fail badly, Labour not gain much but not lose much either, Sinn Fein to gain in NI with DUP being the big losers in NI.
 


Zapped(CAPITALISMROTS)

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Separate thread for UK GE results

Party vote not as signifcant as it in in Irish elections as a party getting 50% or 70% makes no difference as they still get 1 seat but would expect Torys to get a higher share of vote.

Seat predictions
Torys .................... 323
Labour................... 237
LD..........................15
SNP..........................51
Sinn Fein..................6
DUP.........................6
SDLP.......................3
UUP.......................1
Green ....................1
Ind Unionist.............1
Alliance...................1
Plaid Cymru..............4
Bercow...................1

Tory gamble to fail badly, Labour not gain much but not lose much either, Sinn Fein to gain in NI with DUP being the big losers in NI.
Hopefully your right. Think the Tories might take it out to 30-35 seat majority, but much better election for Labour then it looked 6 weeks ago.
 

statsman

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Talk about premature electulation.
 

midlander12

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Cons 356
Lab 214
LD 12
SNP 45


31 Con gains (1 from LD, 9 from SNP, 22 from Lab) minus 6 losses nett 25 gains Total 356
4 LD gains (2 from Con, 2 from SNP) minus 1 loss nett 3 gains Total 12

4 Lab gains from Con minus 22 losses nett 18 losses Total 214
11 SNP losses no gains nett 11 losses Total 45

Overall CON maj 61

I am still of the view that the former UKIP vote will break more for the Tories, albeit by a lesser margin than it might have a month ago, particularly in those constituencies with a high UKIP vote in 2015 and a Leave vote of 55%+. The higher Lab's margin was in 2015, obviously the less impact the UKIP defectors will have.

Lab to hold or possibly increase its vote in Wales and London, but at best break even in Scotland where I see them probably only holding on to their solitary seat. However, overall I suspect most of the polls are overestimating Lab's support by 4-5% as they have done in previous elections.

The bottom line is that ultimately we have no clue what is going to happen. One can only follows one's instinct based on past elections.
 
Last edited:

raetsel

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Separate thread for UK GE results

Party vote not as signifcant as it in in Irish elections as a party getting 50% or 70% makes no difference as they still get 1 seat but would expect Torys to get a higher share of vote.

Seat predictions
Torys .................... 323
Labour................... 237
LD..........................15
SNP..........................51
Sinn Fein..................6
DUP.........................6
SDLP.......................3
UUP.......................1
Green ....................1
Ind Unionist.............1
Alliance...................1
Plaid Cymru..............4
Bercow...................1

Tory gamble to fail badly, Labour not gain much but not lose much either, Sinn Fein to gain in NI with DUP being the big losers in NI.
Can't see Sinn Fein take Belfast North, which seems to be the basis for your predicted tally. Finucane is a good candidate and will take votes off the SDLP but Dodds has a clear run. I do however see them winning Fermanagh South Tyrone though as a lot of SDLP voters will defect to them due to Brexit to get that clown Tom Elliott out/.
 
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Dame_Enda

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Edit title to the "UK GE Predictions thread"?
 

hollandia

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Can't see Sinn Fein take Belfast North, which seems to be the basis for your predicted tally. Finucane is a good candidate and will take votes off the SDLP but Dodds has a clear run. I do however see them winning Fermanagh South Tyrone though as a lot of SDLP voters will defect to them due to Brexit to get that clown Tom Elliott out/.
I suspect they'll take south down, but not north belfast.
 

PBP voter

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Putting it NI seats. petunia

Tory 360 seats
Labour 211 seats
Lib Dem 10 seats
UKIP 0 seats
SNP 45 seats.

My prediction.
 
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Talking to lots of friends and few are calling this election with any degree of certainty.

Torys from 380 to 290 such is the uncertainty.

Security is a big issue.

Someone people today at where working were talking about internment and just torture suspects to get what you want......................

Telling one lady that her 17 year old son was now a suspect and he was being arrested for terrorism and would be tortured to get what ever he knew. She said he is innocent but i just said Let police be judge of that and mothers always say that.
She started to get really angry until I said, you were advocating picking up anybody they suspect without reason and torturing them, now its your son and why are you not cooperating with the police.
After she calmed down I just said "What you wanted you have just seen how it works, still want to go ahead".
 

Catalpast

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Cons 356
Lab 214
LD 12
SNP 45


31 Con gains (1 from LD, 9 from SNP, 22 from Lab) minus 6 losses nett 25 gains Total 356
4 LD gains (2 from Con, 2 from SNP) minus 1 loss nett 3 gains Total 12

4 Lab gains from Con minus 22 losses nett 18 losses Total 214
11 SNP losses no gains nett 11 losses Total 45

Overall CON maj 56

I am still of the view that the former UKIP vote will break more for the Tories, albeit by a lesser margin than it might have a month ago, particularly in those constituencies with a high UKIP vote in 2015 and a Leave vote of 55%+. The higher Lab's margin was in 2015, obviously the less impact the UKIP defectors will have.

Lab to hold or possibly increase its vote in Wales and London, but at best break even in Scotland where I see them probably only holding on to their solitary seat. However, overall I suspect most of the polls are overestimating Lab's support by 4-5% as they have done in previous elections.

The bottom line is that ultimately we have no clue what is going to happen. One can only follows one's instinct based on past elections.
Which is that Labour have a tendency to under perform on the Day....

Can't help thinking of shades of 1992 and Clare Short's infamous 'I think we've done it....' :oops:
 

midlander12

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Which is that Labour have a tendency to under perform on the Day....

Can't help thinking of shades of 1992 and Clare Short's infamous 'I think we've done it....' :oops:
I was aware of a party in Dublin that night (made up of trendy leftie types) to celebrate the impending end of the Thatcher/Tory era. They were all 'well on' around 1.30 when someone actually took the trouble to look at the TV screen which was just imparting the news that the Tories were predicted to retain an overall majority - cue devastation all round. Such was their hubris none of them had even bothered to look at the early results which would clearly indicated to them that things were not going according to plan.
 
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Which is that Labour have a tendency to under perform on the Day....
:
Often its getting the vote out................ in reality this election will be decided by less that 10% of the seats which are in play.

Tory / Labour getting 55 or 65% in a safe seat is irrelevant.
 
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Love Jacob Rees-Mogg to be next tory leader.................... he is so up himself he has already come out the other end.
 


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