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UK Local Elections

statsman

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midlander12

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Foe what it's worth, this is how Corbyn compares with previous opposition leaders since 1979, the year after a general election, in terms of party ratings and (depending on what happens tomorrow) council seat gains:-

May 80 Callaghan Lab +5 Lab +600
May 81 Foot Lab +5-8 Lab +1000
May 84 Kinnock Cons +4 Lab + 88
May 88 Kinnock Cons +5 Lab +76
May 93 Smith Lab +15 Lab + 111
May 98 Hague Lab +25 Con +250
May 02 Duncan/Smith Lab +15 Con +240
May 06 Cameron Con +4 Con +300
May 11 Milliband Lab +5 Lab +850
May 12 Milliband Lab +10 Lab +800
May 16 Corbyn Con +3 ???????

As can be seen, Corbyn actually compares reasonably well in opinion poll terms with Kinnock in the 80's, and way better than Hague and Duncan Smith. However, even they managed to make some council seat gains, and it is singularly unfortunate for Corbyn that he is defending one of Lab's best ever results in 2012.
 

devoutcapitalist

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If Labour lose over 100 council seats there needs to be a leadership challenge against Corbyn even If it risks splitting the party and annoying Union leaders like McCluskey.

Corbyn has been a disaster.
 

storybud1

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Corbyn has loser written all over him, the London Mayoral contest will be something,, if Khan gets it (as expected) he will be watched for any pro-islamic policies like a hawk.

TBH, Brexit is the only game in town this year.
 

devoutcapitalist

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Corbyn has loser written all over him, the London Mayoral contest will be something,, if Khan gets it (as expected) he will be watched for any pro-islamic policies like a hawk.

TBH, Brexit is the only game in town this year.
Corbyn is only calling for the UK to remain in the EU because the vast majority of Labour MPS are pro EU, If he was still a backbench MP he'd be out campaigning for a Brexit.

Khan (unfortunately) will easily win in London as London continues along the path of having some isolated Islamic enclaves.

As for the other elections, Labour have long since written off Scotland, they will be the low 20's percentage wise at worse, they expect to lose seats in the Welsh Assembly elections and hopefully at least a couple of hundred council seats in England.
 

livingstone

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Foe what it's worth, this is how Corbyn compares with previous opposition leaders since 1979, the year after a general election, in terms of party ratings and (depending on what happens tomorrow) council seat gains:-

May 80 Callaghan Lab +5 Lab +600
May 81 Foot Lab +5-8 Lab +1000
May 84 Kinnock Cons +4 Lab + 88
May 88 Kinnock Cons +5 Lab +76
May 93 Smith Lab +15 Lab + 111
May 98 Hague Lab +25 Con +250
May 02 Duncan/Smith Lab +15 Con +240
May 06 Cameron Con +4 Con +300
May 11 Milliband Lab +5 Lab +850
May 12 Milliband Lab +10 Lab +800
May 16 Corbyn Con +3 ???????

As can be seen, Corbyn actually compares reasonably well in opinion poll terms with Kinnock in the 80's, and way better than Hague and Duncan Smith. However, even they managed to make some council seat gains, and it is singularly unfortunate for Corbyn that he is defending one of Lab's best ever results in 2012.
It's difficult to compare different years in terms of numbers of seats won or lost, because different sets of seats will be up for election in different years. It would be better to compare changes expressed as percentages.
 

A REASON

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Corbyn is a decent man, he's honest about englands past and the crimes they've committed across the globe. For this reason alone he will not be popular.
 

statsman

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Corbyn is a decent man, he's honest about englands past and the crimes they've committed across the globe. For this reason alone he will not be popular.
He does seem to be reasonably decent. Michael Foot was also a decent man. Sadly, Labour need an election winner. I don't think he's that.
 

statsman

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Well, Labour in serious difficulty in Scotland and not doing so well in Wales.
 

President Bartlet

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He does seem to be reasonably decent. Michael Foot was also a decent man. Sadly, Labour need an election winner. I don't think he's that.
Agree. I have argued this since he won the leadership but I don't think last night will see rebels move against - still safe as leader for time being. Even more so Andy Burnham decides to run for Mayor of Greater Manchester - though I don't think he should and should go for the leadership again
 

Levellers

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Seems like the English now have their own version of our fleggers who protested at Poland Day.

 

flavirostris

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Just on Sky News now. Rotherham council. No Labour losses at all despite the fact that they were partly culpable for the grooming scandal. Their vote hasn't budged at all.
 

devoutcapitalist

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Just on Sky News now. Rotherham council. No Labour losses at all despite the fact that they were partly culpable for the grooming scandal. Their vote hasn't budged at all.
Diehards will remain diehard voters no matter how useless Labour are under Corbyn.

Saying that in Scotland they've been rightly tanked and been pipped by the Tories into 2nd place.
 

flavirostris

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Nicola Sturgeon really reminds me of Jimmy Krankie.
 

midlander12

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Projected vote share according to BBC:-
Lab 31%, Con 30%, Lib Dem 15%, UKIP 12%.

Depending on what you're comparing it with, both main parties did extremely badly. Lab are down 7% on 2012 though up about 1% on 2015. Tories are about the same as 2012 but down 7% on 2015. What's remarkable is how few council seats changed hands. Even the Lib Dems' undoubted vote gains (they now seem to be the third party in England again) netted them only about 30 new seats.

Scotland was essentially a wipeout for Lab as Unionists transferred almost en masse to the Tories. And Lab were extremely lucky in Wales, losing only 1 seat despite their vote dropping 7% to barely a third of the total. We don't have the full London results yet. Khan has won as expected, though possibly by a smaller margin than predicted by most polls. So far they've gained 1 London Assembly seat from the Tories.

Essentially Corbyn has done enough to survive, which is the best news the Tories got today (yes Dave, even better than Peterborough - yawn). He is roughly around where Kinnock was in 1984 and 1988, and we all know how well that went for him. The Tories may be imploding over Europe and Cameron may be in his last legs, but who needs a united, functioning party when you've got an opposition who can just about do as 'well' as they did in the last general election, which they lost hands down.
 


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