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Ukraine—partitioned?


Al.

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Germany seems to be advancing the plan. Currently, it's via NATO expansion. But if NATO fails, consider what the alternative is (it's in the Treaty of Lisbon).

German-Foreign-Policy.com
East Ukraine - A "de Facto Nation"
2009/12/01

German military circles are debating NATO's continued eastward expansion and the partitioning of the Ukraine.

As a former advisor in the Amt für Studien und Übungen (Bureau for Research and Training) of the German Bundeswehr writes, the question of expanding the western war alliance to the territory of the Ukraine is still on the table. If this step is taken, "probably only the western Ukraine" will join NATO. The "eastern Ukraine" would "in this case, become independent or a de facto nation like Abkhazia."

The author, a lieutenant colonel of the reserves, presented his ideas in a military magazine, embedding them in a retrospective on the entire past twenty years of NATO's eastward expansion.

According to the author, a "cordon sanitaire" separating this war alliance from Russia, conceded by the allies of World War II to the Soviet Union, has for the most part been absorbed into NATO, essentially crossing every "red line" drawn by Moscow. According to the author, Russia finds itself on a historical defensive. Only Moscow's 1989 project of winning security for itself through an axis with Berlin, has a chance of succeeding, says the author …
 
Last edited:


eyeswideopen

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Russia is greatly debilitated by the economic "shock" and wars of destabilisation - Afghanistan and Chechnya.

There are current Russia NATO talks - are they completely throwing in the towel ? It won't help them.
 

Thac0man

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Russia is greatly debilitated by the economic "shock" and wars of destabilisation - Afghanistan and Chechnya.
Thats not true. Afghanistan was during the Soviot ear and Chechnya was not overly expensive. Especially in light of the fact Russias oil reveneues have sky-rocketed since the latter. Russias problem is not lack of money, its lack of economic development outside of natural resource exports - as Medvedev rightly pointed out; Russias economy is primitive and needs to change and diversify.

I dont think Russia is thinking of 'throwing in the towel' as regards it relationship with NATO and the West. It is simply coming to a natural understanding that the relationship between Russia and the West is one of mutual dependance. Putins tenure has seen the West make huge efforts to break dependance on Russian oil, which in the long term could wipe out Russian political asperations. Russians see themselves as European, so have to get along. Europe can in the mid to long term turn its back on Russia, and then its back to wilderness with the big bear; something Russians would hate. Not much prestige for Moscow in being the senior partner with Khazakstan and South Ossetia. They would end up a Chinas whipping boys.
 

b.a. baracus

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Excuse my ignorance. Are there two separate identifiable ethnic groups in Ukraine?
 

Telemachus

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Excuse my ignorance. Are there two separate identifiable ethnic groups in Ukraine?
Russian and ukranian. wading into another thread clueless eh?
 

Al.

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I dont think Russia is thinking of 'throwing in the towel' as regards it relationship with NATO and the West. It is simply coming to a natural understanding that the relationship between Russia and the West is one of mutual dependance
Or maybe this has something to do with it...?
 

at768

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Everyone seems to forgot this plan by NATO to take over Ukraine.
 

The Field Marshal

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From what I have seen of Ukraine it needs to be partitioned as follows.

Cage 1: For Yatsenuk and hees fellow rats
Cage 2: Timoshenko and her cronies.
Cage 3 : The scum from the Maidan
Cage 4:Enda Kennys friends.
Cage 5: Friends of the EU ratbags
Cage 6: Russian Ukranians
Cage 7: EU Ukranians.
Cage 8 :Irish Ukranians [This is certain]
Cage 9: UKIP Ukranians.
 

Telstar 62

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Putin won't call off his henchmen and thugs, until he has a land
corridor to Crimea.


He seems to be confident that the EU and US will ultimately do
diddley squat....
 

GJG

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Thats not true. Afghanistan was during the Soviot ear and Chechnya was not overly expensive. Especially in light of the fact Russias oil reveneues have sky-rocketed since the latter. Russias problem is not lack of money, its lack of economic development outside of natural resource exports - as Medvedev rightly pointed out; Russias economy is primitive and needs to change and diversify.

I dont think Russia is thinking of 'throwing in the towel' as regards it relationship with NATO and the West. It is simply coming to a natural understanding that the relationship between Russia and the West is one of mutual dependance. Putins tenure has seen the West make huge efforts to break dependance on Russian oil, which in the long term could wipe out Russian political asperations. Russians see themselves as European, so have to get along. Europe can in the mid to long term turn its back on Russia, and then its back to wilderness with the big bear; something Russians would hate. Not much prestige for Moscow in being the senior partner with Khazakstan and South Ossetia. They would end up a Chinas whipping boys.
This is emphatically wrong.
The Russians perceive themselves as a civilisation state, not a nation state. They see themselves as co-equal with Europe (similar to how, laughably, the British do) and speak of Europe as a separate place. They are strong because of their military power, and they are resource-rich, but they misjudge their relative strength.Russia's economy involves digging stuff out of the ground and selling it. What little enterprise exists is run by the mafia.

Countries in SE Asia with negligible Chinese populations are doing back-flips to teach their population Mandarin and do trade with China. The 'Near Abroad' are doing the reverse to Russia: Witness the Baltics rushing to join Nato, EU and euro. Putin is destroying his own soft power.

Putin said that if he wanted, he could take Kiev in two weeks. That is curiously precise - in an offhand comment, he might have guessed at a week or a month. His comment is one of someone who has been pouring over the plans recently.

The old Soviet defence strategy was access denial. That is why there were Soviet troops in Berlin, why they fought Finland for a defence strip around Leningrad, and it is why they are panicked about Ukraine joining NATO. It doesn't matter that that strategy was redundant the moment the ICMB was invented - they can't get out of that mode of thinking.

It is also the 'thinking' behind the strategy of creating a ring of frozen conflicts and unrecognised states (unable to join NATO or other international organisations) between themselves and, as they see it, Europe - Abkhazia, Transnistria, Ossetia, Chechnya, Nagorno Karabakh, and now Ukraine.

What Russia badly needs now is trade and foreign expertise, to turn their resource-extraction into an actual economy. Their actions have set them back decades. Putin's élite might be strong, they might be dangerous, but they are not smart.
 

at768

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There is no massive mafia problem in Russia, people are free to start and run businesses there.
 

GJG

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There is no massive mafia problem in Russia, people are free to start and run businesses there.
Well, then I suppose that the gleaming €200k Maserati SUVs that I saw tearing up Tverskaya - Moscow's O'Connell Street - at 200km/h or more, without even causing the militia to turn their heads were owned by members of the local branch of the Legitimate Businessman's Social Club.

 

at768

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Do you have any prove the drivers of those cars earned their money illegally?
 

at768

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The Russian economy skyrocketed since the 90's there aren't many mobsters most are good upstanding businessmen.
 

firefly123

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If only he were a troll then he might have been banne long ago. Unfortunately he is a grade A moron. I imagine string jack will remove this and give me a gentle tut tut whilst allowing this tool drag down debate on this site to ann and Barry levels of blind ignorance.
 

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