ULA Seats

Republican-Socialist

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So how many seats do you reckon the ULA realistically could get?

I would think 2 would be a good performance and anything above that a huge bonus?
 


Seanie Lemass

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Higgins and Healy dead certs. Good chances with Clare Daly and RBB although think RBB messed up on a few issues such as the campaign for a family of wasters! Other outside chances in DSC and CNC. Possible six, then they would have huge doctrinal row and split three ways!
 

locke

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Realistically 3 - Higgins, Healy and DSC (will it be Collins or Smith running)

But even all those three are unlikely.

Dun Laoghaire is probably out because of the reduction in the number of seats.

If the promiscuous support that has got behind Labour and now Sinn Fein drifts on to them, they have a chance in DL, Cork North Central and Dublin North.
 

Keith-M

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Higgins is guaranteed, then it's no better than 50/50 anywhere else. On a good day they could get as many as six, but all they'll be doing is keeping the opposition benches warm.
 

Rocky

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Realistically 3 - Higgins, Healy and DSC (will it be Collins or Smith running)

But even all those three are unlikely.

Dun Laoghaire is probably out because of the reduction in the number of seats.

If the promiscuous support that has got behind Labour and now Sinn Fein drifts on to them, they have a chance in DL, Cork North Central and Dublin North.
Who's Healy? Higgins is safe now that's a four seater, but after that I think they'll struggle. SF's recent rise will hurt them a lot.
 

LiberalFG

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Who will the socialists send to Brussels in the event of Higgins getting re-elected to the Dail?
 

Skrynesaver

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Seamus Healy : Workers and unemployed action group in Tipp South
 

Seanie Lemass

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Seamus Healy is in Tipp South. Had seat until 2007. Close to Higgins but more republican. A lot of these seats will come down to whoever between ULA and shinners is on top of the pile in the later transfers. Not impossible for example that SF could benefit from Barry (SP) transfers in CNC and take a seat there. Shinners greater base and appeal to defecting FFers gives them an advantage over the ULA in most places except Tipp, Dublin West, Dun Laoighaire and Dublin North. O Snodaigh will probably beat Collins for seat now whereas he looked doubtful up until recently.
 

Keith-M

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Seamus Healy : Workers and unemployed action group in Tipp South

McGrath will hold as will FG, so it's Healy vs Predergast for the last seat. If Labour don't take this, you'd have to query the "Gilmore Gale" being more than a puff of hot air beyond the M50.
 

Grumpy Jack

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I think his wife Ruth (who is Councillor I think) is his replacement.
I thought Higgins was unmarried and even makes quite a virtue of it.

It was his 90-something Kerry mammy who shared the victory limelight when he won the Euro seat in 2009 - not a wife in sight.

The replacement in question will be Ruth Coppinger, who is an SP councillor in Fingal.
 

Seanie Lemass

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I thought they were partners? Anyway, she is his replacement so I got that right anyway!
 

Trophonius

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Could the likes of F McGrath and O'Sullivan and other left wing indos sign up to the ULA? They would probably join them in the Dail to form a technical group.

I think Higgins, Healy and RBB to get in with a good outside shot. Is Connolly in Galway West signed up? If so i think shes is another with a good chance.
 

Seanie Lemass

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I would think that McGrath and O'Sullivan and Connolly in Galway would not be comfortable as part of a larger trotskyist group. Maybe if there were only 2/3 ULA that would be a runner but they are doctrinally Marxist and I'd imagine would be pretty strict on who they let in.
 

Kill Bill

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So how many seats do you reckon the ULA realistically could get?

I would think 2 would be a good performance and anything above that a huge bonus?
This election is hard to predict because of the huge instability in society.

Higgins will almost certainly win though his absence from the area since going to Brussels could count against him coupled with the growth in support for Joan Burton.

Healy is next best chance - but Labour could scupper him.

Daly has a good chance - but if Sargent holds on that could count against her.

Richard Boyd Barrett and Joan Collins have reasonable chances but the strength of Labour is a real problem for them.

Mick Barry in CNC has no realistic chance of winning - he will do well and put himself in the running for next time out.

All other candidates will get a variety of votes ranging from a few hundred to a couple of thousand but none will feature for seats.

So on a bad day the ULA will 0 or 1 and on a very good day they could win 4/5 maximum.
 

Glucose

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