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Unemployment rate down - non-national population up 60,000


freedomlover

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Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
198
Contrary to all the hype here and in the media, Ireland's unemployment rate is falling, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. In the third quarter of 2007, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, compared with 4.5% in the second quarter of 2007 and also 4.5% in the third quarter of 2006. The figures are given in today's CSO publication of the Quarterly National Household Survey, which is the official measure of employment and unemployment in Ireland.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/ ... t/qnhs.pdf

The figures show that in the year to the third quarter of 2007, the seasonally-adjusted number in employment increased by 67,100, of which 4,900 were in construction and 62,200 were in non-construction. That's the net increase, after all those losing jobs are included. This is an increase of 3.3% in the year and compares with an increase of 1.4% in employment in the EU as a whole for the same period, for which figures were also published today. In the year to the third quarter of 2006, the seasonally-adjusted number in employment increased by 82,800, of which 25,100 were in construction and 57,700 were in non-construction. So, even though there has been a sharp downturn in construction, total employment is still increasing at a very rapid rate, aided by an actual acceleration in employment growth outside of construction compared with the previous year.

CSO figures in today's Quarterly National Household Survey also show that the non-national population aged 15+ in Ireland increased by 61,300 in the year to the third quarter of 2007. Virtually all of these 61,300 were from eastern Europe. So all those stories here and in the media about eastern Europeans now leaving Ireland in droves are also without foundation. The total population (Irish + non-national) aged 15+ increased by 84,900 in the year to the third quarter of 2007. Today's CSO publication only gives population estimates for those aged 15+. But, I calculate from these that the total population must have increased by about 100,000 in the year to the third quarter of 2007 and in that quarter the total population was about 4,360,000.
 

Ard-Taoiseach

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Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
irishpeoplearewhingers said:
but i thought we were having a recession....
You'd think, but the boom goes on, contrary to what some foolish people think.
 

Watcher

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Joined
Sep 14, 2007
Messages
64
Ard-Taoiseach said:
irishpeoplearewhingers said:
but i thought we were having a recession....
You'd think, but the boom goes on, contrary to what some foolish people think.
Long may it last Ard T and FL. My concern is that the future is bleak but that is just my view and I'll prepare for it as best I can, which brings me to another concern. When the economy is talked up by the powers that be in order to hold on to the final straws and people believe them, the good time Charlie train chuggs on leaving people deeper, and deeper in debt with no planning for the hard times. Then, when the hard times do actually hit, they are compounded because people cant keep up even essential payments like mortgages. That occurance then further compounds the hard times and then we all get hit bad. We are the most indebted country in the world because people believe what you two guys have been flouting the whole time and they dont see the ends to the boom. Perhaps you are right and that end is not coming anytime soon, but by the time it comes, and it will come, people will be further and further indebted. Then all boats will sink.
 

locke

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Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,090
So the workforce increased by 3.3%, which must be similar to the growth figure for the period.

All of which implies that we're not working smarter, just increasing the Labour force. Not ideal really.
 

Ard-Taoiseach

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Joined
Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
locke said:
So the workforce increased by 3.3%, which must be similar to the growth figure for the period.

All of which implies that we're not working smarter, just increasing the Labour force. Not ideal really.
You're wrong there. The work-force increased 3.8% in the first quarter, the economy grew 8.1%. In the second quarter, the work-force expanded by 3.9%, while the economy grew 5.4%.

We're working way smarter and harder this year.
 

Anorakphobia

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 13, 2007
Messages
911
Watcher said:
Ard-Taoiseach said:
irishpeoplearewhingers said:
but i thought we were having a recession....
You'd think, but the boom goes on, contrary to what some foolish people think.
Long may it last Ard T and FL. My concern is that the future is bleak but that is just my view and I'll prepare for it as best I can, which brings me to another concern. When the economy is talked up by the powers that be in order to hold on to the final straws and people believe them, the good time Charlie train chuggs on leaving people deeper, and deeper in debt with no planning for the hard times. Then, when the hard times do actually hit, they are compounded because people cant keep up even essential payments like mortgages. That occurance then further compounds the hard times and then we all get hit bad. We are the most indebted country in the world because people believe what you two guys have been flouting the whole time and they dont see the ends to the boom. Perhaps you are right and that end is not coming anytime soon, but by the time it comes, and it will come, people will be further and further indebted. Then all boats will sink.
That's quite enough of that old guff pal, next you'll be telling us we will have a domestic stock market colapse and a property slump.
Oh sorry, we're there.
 

Catalpa

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Jun 10, 2004
Messages
10,301
Non-Irish nationals are tentatively estimated to have accounted for 48,400 or 71.6% of the annual increase in the numbers in employment. The majority of these Non-Irish nationals came from the 12 new EU Accession states (+40,100


Or so we are to believe! :roll:

Compare these figures with the PPS figures issued to NAS members in the same time period:

http://www.welfare.ie/topics/ppsn/ppsstat.html#euas07

http://www.welfare.ie/topics/ppsn/ppsstat.html#euten06

Does anyone really believe that out of the huge numbers of immigrants from the NAS who arrived here and went to the trouble to get a PPS number that a mere 40,000 were actually able to secure employment?

These figures are just not credible!

The CSO is in urgent need of Reform with a new management structure and a modus operandi in place as their credibility as a reliable source of statistical information continues to decline.

Time to stop the rot - after all we pay their wages! :x
 

corkman2007

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Joined
Jun 5, 2007
Messages
167
Maybe you'd run the CSO - the Catalpa Statistics Office? All the PPS numbers show is the gross number of PPS numbers issued. It doesn't take into account people who've since left the state as has been explained to you many, many times. Even people who've had PPS numbers issued to them in July might have left by now - temporary and seasonal migration is a major feature of migration patterns around the EU at present.
 

freedomlover

Active member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
198
locke said:
I went looking for YTD growth figures and found the following

http://www.cso.ie/statistics/keyecindireland.htm

Why are the GNP and GDP figures so out of date?

I thought for a minute they were giving us negative growth for the previous three months.
That's just some sort of summary table they provide for easy access. I agree its pathetic some of the items on it are years out-of-date.

If you navigate through their website menus ('national accounts' is one that takes you to GDP tables), you'll eventually get the up-to-date figures. The most recent GDP/GNP figures they have are for second quarter of 2007 (link below). The third quarter figures are due just before Christmas.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/ ... nt/qna.pdf
 

kerrynorth

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Joined
Oct 5, 2005
Messages
1,525
Spin, Spin, Spin freedomlover.


Your holding back on a lot of data in your post. Such as: that yoy employment gain fell from 3.9 to 3.3% in Q3 - thats a sharp fall in a single Q. Also lets look at the quality of employment. First a quote from Pat Mc Ardle of Ulster Bank, not my words: "Over the two quarters, some 30,000 part-time jobs were created. The result was that more than half of all new jobs in the year to Q3 were part-time.This is a rare event and last happened in mid-2003. It indicates that the quality of the jobs on offer may have deteriorated. Those involved were mainly women as females accounted for 60% of jobs growth in the period. Male - dominated industries like construction, are now easing."

But all this information is historical so lets also look at future employment data that also came out today but rather oddly you chose not to refer to freedomlover from the FAS/ERSI employers survey

"There was a significant reduction in employers' future employment outlook with the economy-wide Net Employment Expectations indicator falling to -11%. This indicates that the percentage of employers expecting a fall in employment levels in their firms over the coming months is 11 percentage points higher than that predicting an increase. This economy-wide indicator figure has been trending downwards since May 2007, and the October reading is the lowest it has ever been;"

All sectors of the economy indicated that future employment will be falling over the next year from Construction the worst at -25% to even the retail sector at -3% coming at an economy wide -11%.

What the ESRI were scared to point out is if this employers survey is borne out next year then the economy will most definitely be in or around recession as these figures indicate that overall employment next year will be lower than this year. I pointed out on another thread that I am forecasting 1% growth next that and that employment would fall by 25000. This survey would be very much in line with this scenario.

You dwell in the past freedomlover. I look to the future as have the stockmarket and they did not like what they saw!
 

freedomlover

Active member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
198
kerrynorth said:
Spin, Spin, Spin freedomlover.


Your holding back on a lot of data in your post. Such as: that yoy employment gain fell from 3.9 to 3.3% in Q3 - thats a sharp fall in a single Q. Also lets look at the quality of employment. First a quote from Pat Mc Ardle of Ulster Bank, not my words: "Over the two quarters, some 30,000 part-time jobs were created. The result was that more than half of all new jobs in the year to Q3 were part-time.This is a rare event and last happened in mid-2003. It indicates that the quality of the jobs on offer may have deteriorated. Those involved were mainly women as females accounted for 60% of jobs growth in the period. Male - dominated industries like construction, are now easing."

But all this information is historical so lets also look at future employment data that also came out today but rather oddly you chose not to refer to freedomlover from the FAS/ERSI employers survey

"There was a significant reduction in employers' future employment outlook with the economy-wide Net Employment Expectations indicator falling to -11%. This indicates that the percentage of employers expecting a fall in employment levels in their firms over the coming months is 11 percentage points higher than that predicting an increase. This economy-wide indicator figure has been trending downwards since May 2007, and the October reading is the lowest it has ever been;"

All sectors of the economy indicated that future employment will be falling over the next year from Construction the worst at -25% to even the retail sector at -3% coming at an economy wide -11%.

What the ESRI were scared to point out is if this employers survey is borne out next year then the economy will most definitely be in or around recession as these figures indicate that overall employment next year will be lower than this year. I pointed out on another thread that I am forecasting 1% growth next that and that employment would fall by 25000. This survey would be very much in line with this scenario.

You dwell in the past freedomlover. I look to the future as have the stockmarket and they did not like what they saw!
There is always a time gap of anything up to 2 or 3 months when economic data is published. Its not like the football results that come out on the same day the matches are played. The CSO figures out today are the most recent we now have for employment growth in Ireland. They show employment still growing faster than in any other EU-15 country. They are for the period June to August 2007. June to August 2007 isn't some long-ago period in history. Its 10 weeks ago. Furthermore, live register figures up to end-October show little change in the unemployment rate since August, so its reasonable to assume that employment growth has continued at more or less the same pace since then. Everytime CSO figures come out showing growth in either the economy or in employment, you always say "they refer to the past", even if they're for just a couple of months earlier. And you always accompany it with a claim that, in the few short weeks that have elapsed since the period the figures refer to, the economy has tanked. But, this is never borned out when eventually the CSO figures come out 2 to 3 months later. Back in summer you were predicting that year-on-year economic growth in the second half of 2007 would be 1%. That forecast looks ridiculous now. But, never mind, you've simpled moved it back to next year. That's the great advantage of 'forecasting' what's going to happen in the future, as distinct from looking at what's happened in the immediate past. You can never be wrong because, when you are, you simply move the future back a bit.
 

corkman2007

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Messages
167
freedomlover said:
You can never be wrong because, when you are, you simply move the future back a bit.
Brilliant!

Nearly as good as this advertising slogan:

Acme Klein Bottles: 'Where yesterday's future is here today'.

Check out this website: www.dhmo.org
 

Catalpa

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Messages
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corkman2007 said:
Maybe you'd run the CSO - the Catalpa Statistics Office? All the PPS numbers show is the gross number of PPS numbers issued. It doesn't take into account people who've since left the state as has been explained to you many, many times. Even people who've had PPS numbers issued to them in July might have left by now - temporary and seasonal migration is a major feature of migration patterns around the EU at present.
Even allowing for all those factors that would not leave a mere 40,000 in jobs at the end of it all.

Words of advice CM:

Stop Digging - a bigger hole for you to fall into! :oops:
 

factual

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Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Messages
8,761
Ard-Taoiseach said:
locke said:
So the workforce increased by 3.3%, which must be similar to the growth figure for the period.

All of which implies that we're not working smarter, just increasing the Labour force. Not ideal really.
You're wrong there. The work-force increased 3.8% in the first quarter, the economy grew 8.1%. In the second quarter, the work-force expanded by 3.9%, while the economy grew 5.4%.

We're working way smarter and harder this year.
The Irish economy has been phenomenally successful in terms of job creation and continues to be so.

The economy is also rebalancing structurally so that the dependence on construction is diminishing, and this is 100% desirable.

It is all good.
 

Ard-Taoiseach

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Joined
Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
factual said:
Ard-Taoiseach said:
locke said:
So the workforce increased by 3.3%, which must be similar to the growth figure for the period.

All of which implies that we're not working smarter, just increasing the Labour force. Not ideal really.
You're wrong there. The work-force increased 3.8% in the first quarter, the economy grew 8.1%. In the second quarter, the work-force expanded by 3.9%, while the economy grew 5.4%.

We're working way smarter and harder this year.
The Irish economy has been phenomenally successful in terms of job creation and continues to be so.

The economy is also rebalancing structurally so that the dependence on construction is diminishing, and this is 100% desirable.

It is all good.
Indeed, the step-change between a building-led boom to a more export/consumption/government-led boom now is much smoother than I thought. It is very heartening that actual unemployment levels are flat to falling. We are far from entering recession.

I'm into my 24th century. Fantastic!
 

corkman2007

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Jun 5, 2007
Messages
167
Catalpa said:
corkman2007 said:
Maybe you'd run the CSO - the Catalpa Statistics Office? All the PPS numbers show is the gross number of PPS numbers issued. It doesn't take into account people who've since left the state as has been explained to you many, many times. Even people who've had PPS numbers issued to them in July might have left by now - temporary and seasonal migration is a major feature of migration patterns around the EU at present.
Even allowing for all those factors that would not leave a mere 40,000 in jobs at the end of it all.

Words of advice CM:

Stop Digging - a bigger hole for you to fall into! :oops:
Catalpa, the day I need to take advice from you is the day you put an African family up in your house!

Anyway, haven't you heard of temporary or seasonal migration? People fly into Ireland, work for a few weeks or months, fly back home and maybe repeat the procees after a few months/weeks in their home country. Cheap flights (and the large gaps in wages between Ireland the NAS countries) have made this type of long-distance, medium-term 'commuting' a reality for thousands of people.

Here are some extracts from a report produced for BBC's Newsnight programme. I suspect a lot of the findings would be relevant to Ireland:

CRONEM
Centre for Research on Nationalism,
Ethnicity and Multiculturalism
Polish migrants survey results
Commissioned by the BBC Newsnight
Key findings:

- Polish migrants demonstrate a highly complex set of migratory patterns
reflecting the growing fluidity and ease of mobility within the European
labour market. As shown below, migration patterns can be divided into
three broad, numerically equal categories: seasonal migrants, long
term settlers and undecided.

- 22% of the respondents identified themselves as seasonal migrants
and almost a third of respondents stated that they intended to stay
less than two years in the UK. Seasonal workers and short term
migrants tend to be young (aged below 24 years), with lower levels of
education, are concentrated in big cities like London and work in
construction or hospitality/catering industries.

- However, around 30% do not know how long they will stay in the UK.
This indicates that a relatively high proportion of recent migrants are
adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach to the duration of their stay. Those
aged between 24 and 34 were most likely to be found in this category.
The remaining respondents were split relatively equally between
staying 2-5 years, over 5 years and permanently.

- 15% of respondents said they wanted to stay in the UK permanently.

- 30% of respondents said that they intend to bring their families and
children over or that their families are already in the UK. The highest proportion was among the 35-45 age groups, followed by those in the
24-35 groups. However, a relatively high percentage (28%) did not
answer the question but of those who did, just under 60% said that
they do not intend to do bring their families over. Education or sector
of employment does not seem to play a decisive role here.

- Financial reasons and unemployment in Poland is the main factor
driving people to migrate to the UK (mentioned by almost 60% of
respondents). However, younger respondents and those with higher
levels of education are more likely to stress non-financial motives like
“easier to live in the UK” and “personal or professional development”.


Edit: Another UK report:
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/uplo ... kwater.doc

In particular, many recent immigrants from the EU8, especially Poland, have moved to the UK either on a short term basis or engage in circular or seasonal migration. For example, evidence from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) suggests that 66% of Polish migrants to the UK in 2006 and 77% in 2005 were short term migrants (staying in the UK between 2 and 11 months).2

2: Kepinska, E., Recent Trends in International Migration: The 2006 SOPEMI Report for Poland, Working Paper No. 15/73, Centre of Migration Research, Warsaw University, 2006. Further evidence on the importance of short term immigration patterns from the EU8 can be found in the Accession Monitoring Report since around 60% of new EU8 migrants to the UK in 2006 stated that they intended to stay for less than a year (55% said they would stay for less than 6 months), with a further 25% unsure of their length of stay.
 

Catalpa

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Joined
Jun 10, 2004
Messages
10,301
corkman2007 said:
Catalpa said:
corkman2007 said:
Maybe you'd run the CSO - the Catalpa Statistics Office? All the PPS numbers show is the gross number of PPS numbers issued. It doesn't take into account people who've since left the state as has been explained to you many, many times. Even people who've had PPS numbers issued to them in July might have left by now - temporary and seasonal migration is a major feature of migration patterns around the EU at present.
Even allowing for all those factors that would not leave a mere 40,000 in jobs at the end of it all.

Words of advice CM:

Stop Digging - a bigger hole for you to fall into! :oops:
Catalpa, the day I need to take advice from you is the day you put an African family up in your house!

Anyway, haven't you heard of temporary or seasonal migration? People fly into Ireland, work for a few weeks or months, fly back home and maybe repeat the procees after a few months/weeks in their home country. Cheap flights (and the large gaps in wages between Ireland the NAS countries) have made this type of long-distance, medium-term 'commuting' a reality for thousands of people.

Here are some extracts from a report produced for BBC's Newsnight programme. I suspect a lot of the findings would be relevant to Ireland:

CRONEM
Centre for Research on Nationalism,
Ethnicity and Multiculturalism
Polish migrants survey results
Commissioned by the BBC Newsnight
Key findings:

- Polish migrants demonstrate a highly complex set of migratory patterns
reflecting the growing fluidity and ease of mobility within the European
labour market. As shown below, migration patterns can be divided into
three broad, numerically equal categories: seasonal migrants, long
term settlers and undecided.

- 22% of the respondents identified themselves as seasonal migrants
and almost a third of respondents stated that they intended to stay
less than two years in the UK. Seasonal workers and short term
migrants tend to be young (aged below 24 years), with lower levels of
education, are concentrated in big cities like London and work in
construction or hospitality/catering industries.

- However, around 30% do not know how long they will stay in the UK.
This indicates that a relatively high proportion of recent migrants are
adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach to the duration of their stay. Those
aged between 24 and 34 were most likely to be found in this category.
The remaining respondents were split relatively equally between
staying 2-5 years, over 5 years and permanently.

- 15% of respondents said they wanted to stay in the UK permanently.

- 30% of respondents said that they intend to bring their families and
children over or that their families are already in the UK. The highest proportion was among the 35-45 age groups, followed by those in the
24-35 groups. However, a relatively high percentage (28%) did not
answer the question but of those who did, just under 60% said that
they do not intend to do bring their families over. Education or sector
of employment does not seem to play a decisive role here.

- Financial reasons and unemployment in Poland is the main factor
driving people to migrate to the UK (mentioned by almost 60% of
respondents). However, younger respondents and those with higher
levels of education are more likely to stress non-financial motives like
“easier to live in the UK” and “personal or professional development”.
Catalpa, the day I need to take advice from you is the day you put an African family up in your house!

It'll never happen - there's no room! :D

If 22% of the Poles in England described themselves as 'seasonal migrants' that means 78% see themselves as otherwise.

30% do not know how long they will stay in the UK

Rest assured the bulk of them will stay. BTW that doesn't mean they will go back to Polska either - they might head for Ireland! :?

Sorry I know that zenophobic scaremongering - it'll never happen! ;)

15% of respondents said they wanted to stay in the UK permanently


No doubt they will.

But hey thats just 67% - what happened to the other 33%? :shock:
 

corkman2007

Active member
Joined
Jun 5, 2007
Messages
167
Catalpa, you're ignoring the information from the second report that suggests that between 66% and 75% of Poles migrating to the UK stay for between 2 and 11 months.

BTW, it's xenophobic.
 
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