US-China dispute over Taiwan could turn nuclear fast

gleeful

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 7, 2016
Messages
7,520
Trump has jumped feet first into the long dispute between China and the US over Taiwan. China has always indicated they are willing to use their military to prevent a formal independence declaration by Taiwan - and the US has previously always said they will defend Taiwan.

Enter that mix is Trump, who phones the Taiwan president and previously said nations in Asia should defend themselves and not expect US help - even if that meant developing their own nuclear weapons. Taiwan has 6 nuclear powerstations, and has a massive industrial capacity - well able to produce nuclear weapons within months of a decision.

https://twitter.com/gideonrachman/status/805016504936894464

Mixed messages from Trump could easily lead to China taking a calculated risk to prevent a nuclear Taiwan. China sends its navy to blockade Taiwan, while paratroopers take control of centers of power in Taipai. If the US were to step in (and Mad Dog Mattis would be keen for a showdown with anyone) militarily defend Taiwan, the conflict between China and the US could turn nuclear within hours.



China has scores of ICBMs able to destroy all large US cities, and of course the US can more than match that. Within a day or so, the US would have no cities with a population greater than around 200,000 people. China would lose all its industrial centers and reduce to a more rural, inland, nation of around 500m farmers.

How might the war spread? Standard US cold war planning called for the simultaneous nuclear bombing of all enemies, regardless of who the initial war was with, due to the assumption that a second strike would not be possible. That means Russia would be hit, and in turn Russia would strike Nato bases and industrial centers in Europe.

It might be a good time to move to South America...
 


Karloff

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2015
Messages
6,952
China is a strongly irredentist country. Potentially very aggressive when it comes to territory - and they never had any right to Tibet either.

The US betrayed Taiwan badly when it ceased recognition of it.
 

gleeful

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 7, 2016
Messages
7,520
I just can't see it going nuclear
If the fight turned into a naval battle, either side could start with tactical nukes. Under pressure, the US starts bombing Chinese ports. China retaliates against US bases in Japan and Guam. Losses tick up, some stressed control room sees incoming missiles and decides to launch a 'counter strike'. Game over.
 
D

Deleted member 48908

Hmmm....

Democratically elected president calls US president elect to congratulate him. Dictator gets his feelings hurt. Nuclear WAR!

Nah.
 

silverharp

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 21, 2015
Messages
16,272
If the fight turned into a naval battle, either side could start with tactical nukes. Under pressure, the US starts bombing Chinese ports. China retaliates against US bases in Japan and Guam. Losses tick up, some stressed control room sees incoming missiles and decides to launch a 'counter strike'. Game over.
no way would the US bomb mainland China. it would be more like the Falklands at worst , exclusion zones yada yada
 

Old Mr Grouser

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 29, 2009
Messages
6,341
China and Taiwan are coming ever closer together, anyway.

It's a matter of Culture and Economics.

Taiwan is the new Crown Colony of Hong Kong.
 

farnaby

Well-known member
Joined
May 15, 2006
Messages
1,930
Hmmm....

Democratically elected president calls US president elect to congratulate him. Dictator gets his feelings hurt. Nuclear WAR!

Nah.
"Truth somewhere in between" shocker.

Trump-Taiwan call: China lodges protest - BBC News
No US president or president-elect has spoken directly to a Taiwanese leader for decades.
...
Washington cut formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1979, expressing its support for Beijing's "one country, two systems" concept, which states that Taiwan is part of China.
Trump is a huge risk not simply because of his policies but because he is mercurial - liable to change direction without really thinking through the consequences and thinking his huge ego and drive will see it through.

This episode is truly worrying.
 

Karloff

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2015
Messages
6,952
China and Taiwan are coming ever closer together, anyway.

It's a matter of Culture and Economics.

Taiwan is the new Crown Colony of Hong Kong.
If they are looking at how Hong Kong is being absorbed i am thinking they will be valuing their independence and not wanting to go down the same route. The main problem with the idea of unification with a territory obsessed authoritarian superpower is the irreversibility of it.
 
D

Deleted member 48908

"Truth somewhere in between" shocker.

Trump-Taiwan call: China lodges protest - BBC News


Trump is a huge risk not simply because of his policies but because he is mercurial - liable to change direction without really thinking through the consequences and thinking his huge ego and drive will see it through.

This episode is truly worrying.
If the Chinese didn't launch the ICBMs when Barry O sold $1.8 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan, I seriously doubt a phone call will have the Chairman reaching for the red button.

Talk about a mountain caught in a stormy teacup fashioned in the shape of a molehill.
 

petaljam

Moderator
Joined
Nov 23, 2012
Messages
30,679
Quite apart from how serious this incident is, the larger question is WTF?

If he'd decided to wind up the Chinese as part of some new strategic plan he'd concocted, that would be one thing, whether or not one agreed with his plan. (I don't think it's true that that's a minor issue, but that's as may be).

In any case that's not what seems to be happening. Trump seems to be putting into practice his refusal to listen to experts - he just jumped right in with his size 10 or whatever boots. And got it deeply wrong. He doesn't have a plan for what to do if he p1sses the Chinese off, never mind made an actual decision to risk doing so. Apparently he just didn't think.

And there are still people here who don't think that's a concern. :shock:
 

tsarbomb

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 25, 2013
Messages
4,969
We're all going to die!!!!

Seriously though this is just Trump laying down a marker. The Chinese would probably only go to war if Taiwan declares independence and that doesn't look like it will be happening anytime soon.
 

Ardillaun

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 4, 2010
Messages
11,756
China is a strongly irredentist country. Potentially very aggressive when it comes to territory - and they never had any right to Tibet either.

The US betrayed Taiwan badly when it ceased recognition of it.
Most countries are strongly irredentist. Look at the US, for example. This matters a lot more to China than it does to the US. The delicate compromise should be maintained.
 

Ardillaun

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 4, 2010
Messages
11,756
If the Chinese didn't launch the ICBMs when Barry O sold $1.8 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan, I seriously doubt a phone call will have the Chairman reaching for the red button.

Talk about a mountain caught in a stormy teacup fashioned in the shape of a molehill.
It's the public aspect that is provocative. The Chinese are willing to let the current arrangement continue as long as a discrete veil is kept across it.
 

gleeful

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 7, 2016
Messages
7,520
We're all going to die!!!!

Seriously though this is just Trump laying down a marker. The Chinese would probably only go to war if Taiwan declares independence and that doesn't look like it will be happening anytime soon.
If Taiwan were about to declare independence (or China decided they might) or if China decided they had a window of opportunity to capture the island with minimal losses, they might go for it. Particularly if Trump launches his trade war with China as promised.

China is a dictatorship, but that doesn't mean they ignore public opinion. They must play the patriotic card when things get tough, and invading Taiwan might be the ticket.
 

stopdoingstuff

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 26, 2011
Messages
22,399
As well as the usual disputes with India and Japan, the Chinese are claiming most of the South China Sea:



The way to handle this lot is to build a formal defensive alliance.
 

Ardillaun

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 4, 2010
Messages
11,756
Chauvinism is a favourite tool of dictatorships, a way of letting the populace release some steam. The nationalism of the Chinese, though, is genuine. They have strong feelings about what they regard as their territory. We have seen opposition to the Dalai Lama in Canada from Chinese immigrants, something we didn't anticipate when selling all those houses in Vancouver.

If the people were let choose, China would probably be twenty countries. Not going to happen soon.
 

Karloff

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2015
Messages
6,952
Most countries are strongly irredentist. Look at the US, for example. This matters a lot more to China than it does to the US. The delicate compromise should be maintained.
If China were Spain it would be seeking the return of South America.
 


New Threads

Most Replies

Top