US Election Political Betting

Casualbets

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Being having a look around for betting opportunities on the house elections...

Paddy Power has no market...

Betfair has a very poor one.... (1/100 about the GOP getting over 221 seats anyone??)

Sportsspreads has none...

Ah Ladbrokes has a decent market.... GOP 220-230 at 5/1 looks attractive....

Anyone any other sites?
 


Goober

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Paddy Power is already paying out on Democrats keeping the House of Representatives, and the election hasen't even happened yet. And I wouldn't bet on Democrats keeping the Senate either.
 

Casualbets

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Paddy Power is already paying out on Democrats keeping the House of Representatives, and the election hasen't even happened yet. And I wouldn't bet on Democrats keeping the Senate either.
The Dems keeping the HoR?? They're paying out?? My latest reckoning is GOP 226 DEM 209 and that's pretty conservative... RCP reckons GOP 244 DEM 191...
 

FutureTaoiseach

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Intrade has one that featured on ABC (I think) some years back. It's a market in probabilities, as actual election-betting isn't allowed over there.

 

Goober

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The Dems keeping the HoR?? They're paying out?? My latest reckoning is GOP 226 DEM 209 and that's pretty conservative... RCP reckons GOP 244 DEM 191...
Sorry I must have been unclear. They are paying out early to those who bet against Dems keeping the House... and have not been accepting any more bets on the House. Hopefully they will also have to pay out on those who bet against the Dems keeping the Senate.
 

smitchy2

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I think a 50/50 split house is likely in the Senate.
7 toss up left. Dems up in 2, GOP up in 5 marginally but I think they will carry the lot with their current momentum and unpopularity of Obama’s policies. That will make it 50-50.
All could depend on what happens in Nevada and Washington.
 

caulfield-the-yank

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Why don't we use this thread to post our predictions?

I will go a little out on a limb and predict that the Republicans will gain 10 Senate seats, for a 51-49 majotity.

And that there will be a tsunami in the House races, with Republicans gaining 75 seats, for a majority of 253-182.

(What the heck, no one will remember such a bold prediction unless it turns out to be right -- whereas if I predicted a GOP gain of 56 seats, which I think is the minimum the GOP figures to gain, it would simply mirror conventional wisdom.)
 

FutureTaoiseach

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I think a 50/50 split house is likely in the Senate.
7 toss up left. Dems up in 2, GOP up in 5 marginally but I think they will carry the lot with their current momentum and unpopularity of Obama’s policies. That will make it 50-50.
All could depend on what happens in Nevada and Washington.
If there's a 50:50 split in the Senate then VP Biden has the casting-vote. In practice, the fillibuster rule (i.e. you need 60 votes to force a vote) means that they will not be able to pass anything on their own without resorting to "reconciliation" again.
 

Goober

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House: 254 REP, 181 DEM
Senate: 50 REP, 50 DEM (only reason to make Biden revelant)
 

Casualbets

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I now reckon the house will be : GOP 233 DEM 202

I tried to put 300 @ 5/2 with Ladbrokes for GOP seats 230-239, hoors would only take 100...
 

NYCKY

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If there's a 50:50 split in the Senate then VP Biden has the casting-vote. In practice, the fillibuster rule (i.e. you need 60 votes to force a vote) means that they will not be able to pass anything on their own without resorting to "reconciliation" again.
I think if it does end up at 50/50, the first order of business should be to expel Delaware from the Union for picking that fruitcake O'Donnell as their Republican nominee!
 

True Republican

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I think if it does end up at 50/50, the first order of business should be to expel Delaware from the Union for picking that fruitcake O'Donnell as their Republican nominee!
I predict the senate will end up 52 Democrat 48 Republican, Mike Castle would have been a far more sensible choice and would probably have won as he would have appealed to more moderate voters in Delaware. How O'Donnell got nominated is beyond belief, was she out practising witchcraft on Halloween I wonder.

I'm going to make a big prediction here Obama to be reelecetd in 2012 especially if that fruitcake Palin is The GOPs candidate.
 

NYCKY

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I predict the senate will end up 52 Democrat 48 Republican, Mike Castle would have been a far more sensible choice and would probably have won as he would have appealed to more moderate voters in Delaware. How O'Donnell got nominated is beyond belief, was she out practising witchcraft on Halloween I wonder.

I'm going to make a big prediction here Obama to be reelecetd in 2012 especially if that fruitcake Palin is The GOPs candidate.
I agree with you on a Palin/Obama match. I am going to be bolder though and predict the Senate at 51 Dems to 49 Reps. I think of the toss ups, the Dems will hold WV and CA but the Reps will take WA.
 

Tea Party Patriot

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Being having a look around for betting opportunities on the house elections...

Paddy Power has no market...

Betfair has a very poor one.... (1/100 about the GOP getting over 221 seats anyone??)

Sportsspreads has none...

Ah Ladbrokes has a decent market.... GOP 220-230 at 5/1 looks attractive....

Anyone any other sites?
Based on all known polling date the 5/1 on the GOP taking over 220 House seats is a good value bet. However right now including possible tight margin seats the forecast is 222 to 224 at best so I wouldn't risk my entire bank balance on it.
 

Tea Party Patriot

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Based on all known polling date* the 5/1 on the GOP taking over 220 House seats is a good value bet. However right now including possible tight margin seats the forecast is 222 to 224 at best so I wouldn't risk my entire bank balance on it.
that should read data not date*
 

Tea Party Patriot

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Casualbets

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Tonight sees the highest RCP average poll lead since god knows when for the GOP at 9.4%.. my calculator says GOP 240 DEM 195....

CB could be looking at financial ruin! ;(
 


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