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US Presidential Election 2020 - The Democratic Candidate for President

wombat

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Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
32,642
Rep. Eric Swalwell has announced he's running for the Democratic nomination for President.
I can't see someone from Congress getting nominated. Whatever about a senator, Congress is way too parochial to give a member enough experience for president. I'm still surprised an ex governor of a Midwest state isn't running.
 


livingstone

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Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,283
I can't see someone from Congress getting nominated. Whatever about a senator, Congress is way too parochial to give a member enough experience for president. I'm still surprised an ex governor of a Midwest state isn't running.
Assume you mean the House, as opposed to Congress - Congress includes the Senate and there's a very decent chance that the nominee will be a current or former Senator.

The Dems don't really have any former midwestern Governors who are still active. Ted Strickland is closest but he lost both reelection as Governor and his attempt to the Senate seat in Ohio. And certainly none with any sort of national profile or presence.

Steve Bullock from Montana might still enter the race, and Terry McAuliffe from Virginia. Not midwestern, but they're the most likely Governors to get in the race in addition to Hickenlooper and Inslee.
 

midlander12

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Jul 29, 2008
Messages
5,714
Agreed, but Trump is still their biggest asset
Imagine if Jeb Bush had won GOP, he would probably have beaten Clinton and would now be an almost certainty for reelection, having inherited and added to a booming economy, and the added poignancy of burying both his parents while in office

Like so many other things that America is deficient in. compared to their first world contemporaries. their voter participation compared to their peers in wealthy developed western economies is deplorable.
But that is just exactly the way the GOP want it
Tampering with the census is their big task this year having failed with the almost Nazi like voter suppression czar Kris Kobach in 2017
Your paragraph about Jeb Bush reminds me that no matter how bad things seem, they could always have been worse! Incidentally, I'm not sure he would have beaten Clinton.
 

popular1

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Joined
Feb 4, 2009
Messages
3,129
I don't ever remember having a meaningful debate with you on anything, so don't flatter yourself
Your posts are poorly written and barely coherent

You needy clowns fluke one outcome and harp endlessly that this one fluke should raise you to haruspex level
fluke, you were not sayiing that at the time, you live and learn, was brexit a fluke
 

Jack Walsh

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Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,487
Trump bump---no beating this guy

Go Wag,

One pollster says Trump has a positive approval rating and 99 say he doesn't, so that poll is the definitive and accurate one.
Just as 99 scientists are wrong and the fruitcake who denies climate change is of course right

Classic Trumpism,

There are only two people on the planet who would trust Rasmussen's polling
You and Trump
 
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StirCharles

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2019
Messages
474
you had all the answers before hilary got beat
you were wrong then
and you are probably wrong now
you are influenced by your own bias
and cant think objectively
And the poor fellow can not even figure this out along with Owed, who has been wrong for decades.
 

Jack Walsh

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Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,487
Trump bump---no beating this guy

Follow the latest Reuters/Ipsos polls on everything from politics and elections, to social issues and current events.

Reuters/IPSOS poll taken April 4th-8th, Trump on 39% Approval
Fake poll no doubt, juts like the other 99 except Rasmussen.

Wag, you are like the lad marching with the FCA on Patrick's Day and his mother proudly watching and saying "look at them, all out of step except my Johnny"
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,677
Follow the latest Reuters/Ipsos polls on everything from politics and elections, to social issues and current events.

Reuters/IPSOS poll taken April 4th-8th, Trump on 39% Approval
Fake poll no doubt, juts like the other 99 except Rasmussen.

Wag, you are like the lad marching with the FCA on Patrick's Day and his mother proudly watching and saying "look at them, all out of step except my Johnny"
PollDateSampleApproveDisapproveSpread

RCP Average3/23 - 4/8--43.951.8-7.9
The Hill/HarrisX4/1 - 4/21000 RV4654-8
Rasmussen Reports4/4 - 4/81500 LV5345+8
GU Politics/Battleground3/31 - 4/41000 RV4352-9
IBD/TIPP3/28 - 4/6907 A4152-11
Economist/YouGov3/31 - 4/21227 RV4354-11
Politico/Morning Consult3/29 - 4/11945 RV4253-11
Reuters/Ipsos3/26 - 4/13962 A4253-11
PPP (D)3/27 - 3/28846 RV4252-10
NPR/PBS/Marist3/25 - 3/27834 RV4450-6
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl3/23 - 3/271000 A4353-10

Rasmussen are virtually the only poll that has ever shown a positive Spread for Trump since the day he took office.
 

Wagmore

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Joined
Sep 17, 2015
Messages
12,432
Follow the latest Reuters/Ipsos polls on everything from politics and elections, to social issues and current events.

Reuters/IPSOS poll taken April 4th-8th, Trump on 39% Approval
Fake poll no doubt, juts like the other 99 except Rasmussen.

Wag, you are like the lad marching with the FCA on Patrick's Day and his mother proudly watching and saying "look at them, all out of step except my Johnny"
You're like a Paddy's Day drunk marching in the same parade and eveyrone is saying, how did that eejit make it past security.
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,677
Follow the latest Reuters/Ipsos polls on everything from politics and elections, to social issues and current events.

Reuters/IPSOS poll taken April 4th-8th, Trump on 39% Approval
Fake poll no doubt, juts like the other 99 except Rasmussen.

Wag, you are like the lad marching with the FCA on Patrick's Day and his mother proudly watching and saying "look at them, all out of step except my Johnny"
Trump's average Spread on RCP, now -8.9, basically unchanged for the last year.

RCP Average3/23 - 4/9--43.552.4-8.9
Rasmussen Reports4/7 - 4/91500 LV5147+4
Economist/YouGov4/6 - 4/91267 RV4355-12
Politico/Morning Consult4/5 - 4/71992 RV4056-16
GU Politics/Battleground3/31 - 4/41000 RV4352-9
IBD/TIPP3/28 - 4/6907 A4152-11
The Hill/HarrisX4/1 - 4/21000 RV4654-8
Reuters/Ipsos3/26 - 4/13962 A4253-11
PPP (D)3/27 - 3/28846 RV4252-10
NPR/PBS/Marist3/25 - 3/27834 RV4450-6
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl3/23 - 3/271000 A4353-10

Given he got 48.8% of the vote in 2016, that is pretty poor. His average Job Approval has not risen above 44% since he was inaugurated.
 

StirCharles

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Joined
Mar 8, 2019
Messages
474
How is Hillary doing in the polls Owed, did you hear that she was beaten
 

owedtojoy

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Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,677
Series by Nate Silver on early polling and nominations.

Early polling, the year before the primaries, is a strong indicator in the Republican Party - George W Bush, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump were all leaders in 1999, 2003 & 2015 respectively. John McCain was only 3rd in 1997.

It is also a bit less strong among the Democrats - Al Gore and Hilary Clinton led in 1999 and 2015 respectively, but Barack Obama was 2nd in 1997, and John Kerry only 4th in 2003.

How Early Primary Polls Foreshadowed Surprises Like Obama’s Rise And Trump’s Win

Of course, this year is not over, and one or more of the contenders among the Democrats may have a polling surge. Latest Morning Consult poll of `13,644 Likely Voters.

Biden32%
Sanders23%
Harris9%
O'Rourke8%
Warren7%
Buttigieg5%
Booker4%
Klobuchar2%
Gillibrand2%
Castro1%
Gabbard1%
Hickenlooper1%
Inslee1%
 

jmcc

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Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,294
There's a great negative campaign ad in the movie Bob Roberts that's used against Robert's opponent in the election. It had the backing song of "Thank heavens for little girls." Biden is just too vulnerable to that kind of negative campaigning and the Democrats need some candidates that don't remind people of the Clinton era. Biden might have beaten Trump in 2016 but he is a liability now that the Barr report hasn't given the Democrats the results they wanted.
 

StirCharles

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Joined
Mar 8, 2019
Messages
474
There's a great negative campaign ad in the movie Bob Roberts that's used against Robert's opponent in the election. It had the backing song of "Thank heavens for little girls." Biden is just too vulnerable to that kind of negative campaigning and the Democrats need some candidates that don't remind people of the Clinton era. Biden might have beaten Trump in 2016 but he is a liability now that the Barr report hasn't given the Democrats the results they wanted.
These mutts here, can't grasp that. Anyway that is still following Nate Silver is an idiot imho.
JoeJimmySaville is a joke.
Trump would wipe the floor with him, a senile old man
 

owedtojoy

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Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,677
Good old Nate, who got it completely wrong in 1016, lol.
So all the gobshytes tell us, but Silver was actually more accurate than most.

He gave Trump odds of 2/1, and many an ould nag has won at those odds, especially in a two-horse race.
 
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Pyewacket

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Joined
Mar 24, 2019
Messages
1,779
So all the gobshytes tell us, but he was actually more accurate than most.

He gave Trump odds of 2/1, and many a nag has won at those odds, especially in a two-horse race.
Tell you what, if I wanted to see what social media had to say about Trump, I wouldn't make Pie my first port of call.

Too many idiots like "jmcc", obsessed with some other anonymous poster.

Very Irish in a way - forget that lad, what did one of ye say about him?
 

popular1

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Joined
Feb 4, 2009
Messages
3,129
Why don't you address the points in my post and rebut them with facts or even lucid opinions?
Guys like you make decent debate/opinion next to impossible.
I am not making A prediction you dolt, I am putting out possible scenarios and the conditions that would need to exist for those scenarios to likely transpire.
Let other more mature posters, if they wish, poke holes or offer different scenarios, supported by facts or polls or data.

You sit and wait for outcomes and then start the childish catcalls
"ah Jack said it was a certainty Trump would get walloped, what an idiot"

Then sit back and wait for the backslaps and likes from all the predictable apes.
your are still hurting from hilary losing
you need to get over that, its affecting your judgement big time
i think its called PTSD
 


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