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US Presidential Election 2020 - The Democratic Candidate for President


owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
45,569
To be fair - virtually no one gave Cnut the Great any chance of becoming King.
Or Henry Tudor, either.

Bit of collusion with the King of France fixed it for him.
 

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,325
Series of head to heads with main Dem contenders matched with Trump

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_monthly_banner_book_2019_04.pdf

At face value these look ok for Trump, then you scroll down to breakdowns and see this beauty among their demographics..

Education
Non-College 66%.
College grad 21%,
Postgrad 13%


Just 34% of those polled were college educated
FFS
That's nearly 20% shy of an appropriate sample (50% in 2016 and college educated as a % of overall electorate rises about 2-3% per each Presidential cycle)

And far too many over 50s polled as well.

If Trump cannot get his nose in front even in [polls with this level of favourable skew, he is in real trouble
 
Last edited:

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
45,569
Series of head to heads with main Dem contenders matched with Trump

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_monthly_banner_book_2019_04.pdf

At face value these look ok for Trump, then you scroll down to breakdowns and see this beauty among their demographics..

Education
Non-College 66%.
College grad 21%,
Postgrad 13%


Just 34% of those polled were college educated
FFS
That's nearly 20% shy of an appropriate sample (50% in 2016 and college educated as a % of overall electorate rises about 2-3% per each Presidential cycle)

And far too many over 50s polled as well.

If Trump cannot get his nose in front even in [polls with this level of favourable skew, he is in real trouble
Yes, I noticed in trial polling against Biden, Sanders, Warren and Harris he scored:

Biden Even
Sanders -1
Warren +2
Harris +1

Since the polling error is */1 2.7%, these are all statistical dead heats.

If a sitting President can only beat a nationally unknown Kemala Harris by only 1% at this stage, then he is in trouble.
 

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,325
Yes, I noticed in trial polling against Biden, Sanders, Warren and Harris he scored:

Biden Even
Sanders -1
Warren +2
Harris +1

Since the polling error is */1 2.7%, these are all statistical dead heats.

If a sitting President can only beat a nationally unknown Kemala Harris by only 1% at this stage, then he is in trouble.
But he isn't even doing that.
This poll is a joke
It is almost 20% over weight those with no college education and over 10% overweight over 50s.
This will skew Trump favourably by not less than 5% and up to as much as 10%

Look, it's a bollix poll but there are bollix polls coming every day
I think 538 should stop posting these unrated polls, it gives them oxygen
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
45,569
But he isn't even doing that.
This poll is a joke
It is almost 20% over weight those with no college education and over 10% overweight over 50s.
This will skew Trump favourably by not less than 5% and up to as much as 10%

Look, it's a bollix poll but there are bollix polls coming every day
I think 538 should stop posting these unrated polls, it gives them oxygen
538 don't even rate Civiqs.

Their system is good - they rate polls on past accuracy, Rasmussen for example gets a C+, ABC/ Washington Post get an A+, SurveyMonkey a D-. They use the intrinsic bias to adjust the poll numbers.
 

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,325
"Crazed commie Bernie trying to turn America into Venezuela"

The most disturbing thing about you and the other non retarded wing of Trump cheerleaders is you know as well as I do what an unmitigated clustef*ck Trump actually is.
But his fans are just the type of fertile simpletons the likes of jmcc and you crave to have your needy personalities soothed.
Wag and others will be along shortly to like and fist pump you, and that will please you.
"Wag can see I am really smart, he gets it"

You'd love to be respected by people of merit but that ship sailed a long time ago, hence why you rail against "elites" and "so called experts"(I love jmcc's blood boiling continual references "IT churnalists". get passed over for some IT media gig j? ;)), so you furrow for it among the Trump simpletons and bigots
 

A Voice

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
7,324
"Crazed commie Bernie trying to turn America into Venezuela"

The most disturbing thing about you and the other non retarded wing of Trump cheerleaders is you know as well as I do what an unmitigated clustef*ck Trump actually is.
But his fans are just the type of fertile simpletons the likes of jmcc and you crave to have your needy personalities soothed.
Wag and others will be along shortly to like and fist pump you, and that will please you.
"Wag can see I am really smart, he gets it"

You'd love to be respected by people of merit but that ship sailed a long time ago, hence why you rail against "elites" and "so called experts"(I love jmcc's blood boiling continual references "IT churnalists". get passed over for some IT media gig j? ;)), so you furrow for it among the Trump simpletons and bigots
:D:ROFLMAO::LOL::p:D:ROFLMAO:
You're the easiest person to troll. I had a feeling you'd come in with all that hostile psychobabble.
On a more serious note: high taxes and government overspend are a real problem, and the Dems want more and more of it. California is heading for major problems.
 

A Voice

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
7,324
While he is a millionaire with 3 huge homes himself. The thing is, people are so stupid, they actually support this lug.

Is the Clown Bus full yet and who got aboard today
There's a gay candidate whose name begins with Butt. Fnarr fnarr!! All aboard!!
He's picked a fake fight with Mike Pence - putting his sexuality centre stage cos that's what the Dem hordes expect him to do. Trouble is Pence has never been mean to him, so it's a victimless hate crime, or non-crime.
 

StirCharles

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2019
Messages
384
There's a gay candidate whose name begins with Butt. Fnarr fnarr!! All aboard!!
He's picked a fake fight with Mike Pence - putting his sexuality centre stage cos that's what the Dem hordes expect him to do. Trouble is Pence has never been mean to him, so it's a victimless hate crime, or non-crime.
He could be a serious candidate but might blow it, pardon the pun, by going overboard. Attacking Pence is not smart, when Trump is the obvious target
 

jmcc

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,306
:D:ROFLMAO::LOL::p:D:ROFLMAO:
You're the easiest person to troll. I had a feeling you'd come in with all that hostile psychobabble.
Poor Scutterboy doesn't like Trump, does he? :) Just don't take any betting tips from him.
 

StirCharles

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2019
Messages
384
I gave you a Like because he also hates it when we "high five" and "back slap" each other. It shows neediness and other terrible stuff in us, apparently!
Some posters here could have opinions worth listening to, but they are suffering so much from Trump Derangement Syndrome, it is as iff the tin foil suddenly contracted and squeezed their brain down and out their arse.
 

StirCharles

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2019
Messages
384
Has JoeJimmySaville died or something because he has faded away. I know ye yahoos will be heartbroken but I told ye, he was a non entity and The President would wipe the floor with him
 
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