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US Presidential Election 2020 - The Democratic Candidate for President

A Voice

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Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
7,491
Yes, I agree for the most part, but I think it is a bit more skewed against Trump than "economy good he wins, economy bad he loses"
For me
A. Economy good, he has a good shot
b. Economy bad, he almost certainly loses
Your position not so long ago was:
A. Economy good, it will require Biden to beat him
b. Economy bad, any Dem will beat him.
:D
How 's your intuition holding up?

Interesting that Biden's lead over other Dems is crumbling away, as the campaign wears on. As predicted by me and probably countless others.
 


Jack Walsh

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I agre with that.

The economy can be what Management Theory calls a "Hygiene Factor". A "Hygiene Factor" only kicks in negatively.

When deciding to go to a restaurant, you will rarely consider its hygiene record - unless you hear they have been fined by the Health Inspectors. That might influence your decision quite a bit.

Sometimes the opposite of negative is not positive, but neutral.

"Economy insecurity" as a cause of Trump's election has been pretty soundly debunked. And it would be a mistake to think the economy is great for everyone uniformly, especially in the gig economy. A song by the Drive-by Truckers says it all:

'Another Joker in the White House
Said a change was Comin' Round
But I'm still workin' in the Walmart

And Mary Alice is in the Ground'

In fairness, he would still be in Walmart no matter who was President .... but decent Health Insurance might have saved Mary Alice.
I'd give you two likes if I could for bringing up that gem of a song
 

Jack Walsh

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Your position not so long ago was:
A. Economy good, it will require Biden to beat him
b. Economy bad, any Dem will beat him.
:D
How 's your intuition holding up?

Interesting that Biden's lead over other Dems is crumbling away, as the campaign wears on. As predicted by me and probably countless others.
You do realise what I said and what you are now saying is my position are entirely consistent?
Bonkers, get a life ffs

I never use intuition for any remotely serious decision and have no above average predictive ability whatsoever
No one does
How many times do I need to say this before you and the rest of the saddos who stalk me endlessly let it sink in?

I deal solely with what is in from of me right now and study it fro what it says solely about the here and now.
I leave the tarot cards, the endless unjustified bragging about some fluky past prediction that actually was correct, the time machines and the cult devotion to BS promises and predictions to you lot
 

A Voice

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Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
7,491
You do realise what I said and what you are now saying is my position are entirely consitent?
Bonkers, get a life ffs

I never use intuition for any remotely serious decision and have no above average predictive ability whatsoever
No one does
How many times do I need to say this before you and the rest of the saddos who stalk me endlessly let it sink in?

I deal solely with what is in from of me right now and study it fro what it says solely about the here and now.
I leave the tarot cards, the endless unjustified bragging about some fluky past prediction that actually was correct, the time machines and the cult devotion to BS promises and predictions to you lot
A. Economy good, he has a good shot

is not the same as

A. Economy good, it will require Biden to beat him

The latter asserts that Biden is a certainty to beat him.
Biden is being reeled in by the progressive chasing pack. He won't even get to enact the certain victory over Trump that you once foresaw.
 

Jack Walsh

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Messages
9,699
A. Economy good, he has a good shot

is not the same as

A. Economy good, it will require Biden to beat him

The latter asserts that Biden is a certainty to beat him.
Biden is being reeled in by the progressive chasing pack. He won't even get to enact the certain victory over Trump that you once foresaw.

It does no such thing, it means Trump will be hard beaten if economy is strong in 2020 and Dems will need to play it safe to give themselves the best shot at removing him.
I have been 100% consistent on this point for months and I am not engaging is some wank fest multi post exercise in anal tedium you so love
 
Last edited:

A Voice

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It does no such thing, it means Trump will be hard beaten if economy is strong in 2010 and Dems will need to play it safe to give themselves the best shot at removing him.
I have been 100% consistent on this point for months and I am not engaging is some wank fest multi post exercise in anal tedium you so love
Check out the meaning of entailment.

The Dems will need Biden to beat him

entails that

Biden will beat him.

Anyway, are you confident that Biden can keep his nose in front of the chasing pack?
 

GabhaDubh

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May 20, 2009
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Remember those nice attempts to be bipartisan that Obama made, all spurned? Would Trump appoint Ash Carter, Obama's last Secretary of Defence to his cabinet?)
Ash Carter came into the Pentagon back in 1981 under President Reagan so, yes. But not now as Mr Carter is taking cheap shots as a promotional angle for his book tour.
 

GabhaDubh

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May 20, 2009
Messages
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Saturday was “Best Friends Day” in America, this is just a sad posting by VP Biden to try and tie himself to President Obama.

18509
 

owedtojoy

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Messages
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Ash Carter came into the Pentagon back in 1981 under President Reagan so, yes. But not now as Mr Carter is taking cheap shots as a promotional angle for his book tour.
Obviously a typical Republican.

Look at the way George W Bush's Generals quickly bailed out to get their book deals before the Iraq War turned into the crock of sh!t it was.
 

owedtojoy

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PollDateSampleMoEGillibrand (D)Trump (R)Spread
Siena6/2 - 6/6812 RV4.15834Gillibrand +24

The Democrats could run a Cairn terrier against Trump in New York, and Trump would lose.

New Yorkers hate Trump for the way he for years cheated small contractors and business men out of their earnings. All he had to do was threaten to drag them though the courts with his million-dollar lawyers if they did not agree to take 25c on the dollar.

A Presidential candidate not being, even in the slightest chance, competitive in his home state should have told Americans all they need to know about Trump.
 

owedtojoy

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Messages
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The Democrats could run a Cairn terrier against Trump in New York, and Trump would lose.

New Yorkers hate Trump for the way he for years cheated small contractors and business men out of their earnings. All he had to do was threaten to drag them though the courts with his million-dollar lawyers if they did not agree to take 25c on the dollar.

A Presidential candidate not being, even in the slightest chance, competitive in his home state should have told Americans all they need to know about Trump.
New Jersey people hate Trump for the way he asset-stripped Atlantic City casinos, paid himself top dollar and bonuses, then declared them bankrupt. He destroyed the eastern Las Vegas.


It is symbolic that the Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City was shuttered in 2016, just as Trump was allowed to start his new gambling venture in Washington.
 

livingstone

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Mar 3, 2004
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24,494
A. Economy good, he has a good shot

is not the same as

A. Economy good, it will require Biden to beat him

The latter asserts that Biden is a certainty to beat him.
Biden is being reeled in by the progressive chasing pack. He won't even get to enact the certain victory over Trump that you once foresaw.
Umm, the second statement doesn't imply what you think it does.

'It will take Biden to beat him' means that Biden being the nominee is a necessary condition to beat Trump. It does not follow that it means that Biden being the nominee will be a sufficient condition to beat him.

Whether the statement is correct or not is a separate issue - but your takeaway on the implications of the statement are simply logically wrong.
 

owedtojoy

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Feb 27, 2010
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A fllip flop is still a flip flop even if it's the right thing to do.
"When the evidence changes, I change my mind" is a sign of weakness in politics, it seems.

Donald Trump in 2016 called for punishment for women who had abortions. Then flip-flopped.

But the legislation is now passing in Republican state assemblies.



So maybe a pretend flip-flop works better.
 

Catahualpa

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Joined
May 12, 2019
Messages
228
Chance of being elected President in 2020 according to betting markets:

View attachment 18460

Trump cannot quite just make it to even money, he is 11/9 at the moment, which is probably fair. Biden is 17/3.

Betting markets reflect public perceptions, which are influenced by a host of factors.

PS Betting markets gave Trump a 20% chance in 2016, or odds of 4/1. Many an ould nag has won at 4/1.
He was written off by the vast majority of commentators

- he only started to break even with IIRC about 10 days to go as Hillary imploded....❄
 

owedtojoy

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He was written off by the vast majority of commentators

- he only started to break even with IIRC about 10 days to go as Hillary imploded....❄
Betting markets reflect public perception, so he was written off by the majority of the public. He was a good outside shot that came home at 2/1, 3/1 or 4/1 depending on the odds estimator.
 

A Voice

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Messages
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Umm, the second statement doesn't imply what you think it does.

'It will take Biden to beat him' means that Biden being the nominee is a necessary condition to beat Trump. It does not follow that it means that Biden being the nominee will be a sufficient condition to beat him.

Whether the statement is correct or not is a separate issue - but your takeaway on the implications of the statement are simply logically wrong.
You're wrong. There is no way that that the statement "it will take Biden to beat him" allows for the possibility that Biden cannot beat him. If it did, then Jack wouldn't have made it. Review the context where Jack's original claims were made if you can't handle bald propositional logic without help.
 

livingstone

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Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,494
You're wrong. There is no way that that the statement "it will take Biden to beat him" allows for the possibility that Biden cannot beat him. If it did, then Jack wouldn't have made it. Review the context where Jack's original claims were made if you can't handle bald propositional logic without help.
I want to make a really rich sponge cake. It will take really good quality eggs to do that.

Oh sh1t - I ended up with an omelette because my first statement meant I didn’t need flour, sugar, butter, right? No - that would be absurd. Because my first statement meant that good quality eggs were a necessary but not sufficient condition of making a rich cake.
 

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