• Due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software, some users were "banned" when they tried to change their passwords at the end of February. This does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you were affected by this, please contact us.



US Presidential Election 2020 - The Democratic Candidate for President

A Voice

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
7,503
I want to make a really rich sponge cake. It will take really good quality eggs to do that.

Oh sh1t - I ended up with an omelette because my first statement meant I didn’t need flour, sugar, butter, right? No - that would be absurd. Because my first statement meant that good quality eggs were a necessary but not sufficient condition of making a rich cake.
Leave the cake alone, Livingstone. Try logic.

Embrace the idea that Biden might lose against Trump. OK?

Now, with this thought firmly in your head, try saying to yourself

If the Economy is good, it will require Biden to beat him.

You feel foolish, right? Because by identifying the unfavourable circumstance and nevertheless projecting Biden as a winner, you cannot simultaneously embrace the idea that he can lose.

The very essence of Jack's proposition is that Biden wins in adverse circumstances.
That is what he said when he also said that the Dems could afford to run a progressive if the economy was bad.

Sufficient/necessary doesn't come into it.
 


livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,494
Leave the cake alone, Livingstone. Try logic.

Embrace the idea that Biden might lose against Trump. OK?

Now, with this thought firmly in your head, try saying to yourself

If the Economy is good, it will require Biden to beat him.

You feel foolish, right? Because by identifying the unfavourable circumstance and nevertheless projecting Biden as a winner, you cannot simultaneously embrace the idea that he can lose.

The very essence of Jack's proposition is that Biden wins in adverse circumstances.
That is what he said when he also said that the Dems could afford to run a progressive if the economy was bad.

Sufficient/necessary doesn't come into it.
Actually sufficient/necessary conditions are entirely relevant. I don’t need to ‘embrace’ the idea of Biden losing - any Dem will be on the back foot against an incumbent with a strong economy - Trump is more likely than not to win, though he’s not so much a certainty as some of his cult here like to believe.

Now with that firmly in mind, it is entirely consistent to say it will take Biden to bear him. That statement doesn’t project Biden’s victory - it claims that Biden being the nominee is a necessary condition to beat Trump. It does not flow, logically, that Biden being the nominee is a sufficient condition.
 
Last edited:

A Voice

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
7,503
Actually sufficient/necessary conditions are entirely relevant. I don’t need to ‘embrace’ the idea of Biden losing - and Dem will be on the back foot against an incumbent with a strong economy - Trump is more likely than not to win, though he’s not so much a certainty as some of his cult here like to believe.

Now with that firmly in mind, it is entirely consistent to say it will take Biden to bear him. That statement doesn’t project Biden’s victory - it claims that Biden being the nominee is a necessary condition to beat Trump. It does not flow, logically, that Biden being the nominee is a sufficient condition.
But the argument was that any Democrat would beat Trump against a bad economy, but that it would take Biden to beat him against a good economy. This entails a certainty that Biden would win.

If you can't navigate that much, I can't help you.
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,494
But the argument was that any Democrat would beat Trump against a bad economy, but that it would take Biden to beat him against a good economy. This entails a certainty that Biden would win.

If you can't navigate that much, I can't help you.
I’ve never seen Jack say any Democrat would beat Trump with a bad economy. I have seen him say that the Dems would have a much better chance in a weaker economy and so can afford to take more risk.

I’m sure you can quote where he said any Dem would definitely beat Trump with a weaker economy?
 

A Voice

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
7,503
I’ve never seen Jack say any Democrat would beat Trump with a bad economy. I have seen him say that the Dems would have a much better chance in a weaker economy and so can afford to take more risk.

I’m sure you can quote where he said any Dem would definitely beat Trump with a weaker economy?
You're the one who jumped in here, so you should do it just to show you are aware of the context that you got yourself into. I have already had a long chat with Jack about it.
 

Paddyc

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 30, 2009
Messages
9,523
Meanwhile, going back on topic for a moment.

Trump certainly sees Biden as the one to beat.

After being briefed on a devastating 17-state poll conducted by his campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, Mr. Trump told aides to deny that his internal polling showed him trailing Mr. Biden in many of the states he needs to win, even though he is also trailing in public polls from key states like Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And when top-line details of the polling leaked, including numbers showing the president lagging in a cluster of critical Rust Belt states, Mr. Trump instructed aides to say publicly that other data showed him doing well.
It'll be great fun watching "grab 'em by the pussy" Trump (and his fanboys on here) trying to portray Biden as creepy or Mr spend $106 Million on golfing complaining about the 'swamp'.

Will we hear a rousing chorus of 'Lock him up'? The guy who lead the chorus of 'Lock her up' at the RNC doesn't look so good these days.

How about 'Build that wall'? Sorry kids, but Trump was too busy getting a tax cut through for his friends while he had the House and Senate in his pocket to worry about a mere campaign promise.
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,722

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,494
You're the one who jumped in here, so you should do it just to show you are aware of the context that you got yourself into. I have already had a long chat with Jack about it.
Hang on - you expect me to quote something I’ve literally just said I’ve not seen and don’t believe exists?
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,722
By projecting a facade that he was a 'moderate Republican" running against the Party elite, Trump fooled quie a few people in 2016, people who might otherwise not have voted for him

Many bought into his critique of Obamacare, and his promise of "Great Healthcare". Others were swayed by his boast at being the only Republican candidate who would defend Medicare. Major Infrastructure projects were hinted at, and spending for jobs growth. Middle class tax cuts were mentioned.

However, once in office, Trump caved to the agenda of Congressional Republicans - Obamacare repeal with no replacement. Medicare to be replace with a state voucher scheme. No infrastructure because Congressional Republicans would not pay for it. And a tax cut for the corporate class, nothing for the middle class.

Now, a report shows that the lower incomemembers of their base may be attracted by Democratic spending plans ....





Firstly, there is division between higher-income and lower income Republicans. About half of lower income Republicans support many Progressive economic policies as much as Democrats do.

And with Democrats, higher and lower income groups hold to much the same views, while the GOP is owned by high-income Republicans.
 

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,743
JUN 6-10, 2019A-
Quinnipiac University
1,214RVBooker47%42%Trump
JUN 6-10, 2019A-
Quinnipiac University
1,214RVButtigieg47%42%Trump
JUN 6-10, 2019A-
Quinnipiac University
1,214RVHarris49%41%Trump
JUN 6-10, 2019A-
Quinnipiac University
1,214RVWarren49%42%Trump
JUN 6-10, 2019A-
Quinnipiac University
1,214RVSanders51%42%Trump
JUN 6-10, 2019A-
Quinnipiac University
1,214RVBiden53%40%Trump


Trump loses to six of the top Democratic candidates in this Quinnipiac poll of Registered Voters.

They are great numbers for Dems and stonking ones for Sanders and Biden

But when you get behind them they reveal the true scale of the potential carnage Trump is visiting on the GOP
Biden beats Trump by an incredible 60-34% with women (53% of the electorate!) and a monstrous 58-28% among Independents

Let's be clear, anything like that turns up next year and Trump is wiped out.
He can get 99% GOP, evangelicals and the nut jobs, it wont matter, he gets anything like only 34% with women and 28% Indos and he is wiped.
But how does he get these two mega sections of voters back towards him?
They seriously dislike the guy,
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,722
They are great numbers for Dems and stonking ones for Sanders and Biden

But when you get behind them they reveal the true scale of the potential carnage Trump is visiting on the GOP
Biden beats Trump by an incredible 60-34% with women (53% of the electorate!) and a monstrous 58-28% among Independents

Let's be clear, anything like that turns up next year and Trump is wiped out.
He can get 99% GOP, evangelicals and the nut jobs, it wont matter, he gets anything like only 34% with women and 28% Indos and he is wiped.
But how does he get these two mega sections of voters back towards him?
They seriously dislike the guy,
There are signs that Trump is in denial (but did he ever leave it? He has oversold himself on 2016, Hubris followed by Nemesis).



That being said, I feel like CC O'Brien about CJ Haughey: I won't believe Trump is finished until I see him at a crossroads with a stake through his heart.
 

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,743
There are signs that Trump is in denial (but did he ever leave it? He has oversold himself on 2016, Hubris followed by Nemesis).



That being said, I feel like CC O'Brien about CJ Haughey: I won't believe Trump is finished until I see him at a crossroads with a stake through his heart.

You can only deal in here and now
2016 was 31 months ago
2020 is 17 away

Trump right now is in a deeper hole than most people are crediting, largely because, for different reasons, it is in neither side's interest to say it
GOP clearly wont admit it and Dems also wont as they will play it cool
But privately both know they score, the Dems will be really horned up that Trump is in a really bad place and most his best ammo (tax cuts, economy, stock market) is spent or at very least, weaker.

GOP know that a 13% lead in a modern polarised US political environment may as well be 33%

A near 30% deficit in Women and Independents is staggering in modern American politics, and one I feel Trump has no clear plan right now to be able to turn around
And even if his advisors have, it is doubtful he will follow it, or even listen to it for that matter

EG
On CNN yesterday, discussing these poll results, an analyst said he knows Trump campaign have pleaded with him to stop his Biden attacks, that their internal polling is showing is just further strengthening Biden.
But day after day he defies them and impulsively lashes out

Even betting markets are likely overstating his chances
Volume is low this far out and what you mostly see is that probably 80-90% of all bets are for Trump and his price tumbles
But this isn't smart money, it is Trump fans on the koolaid "he is unbeatable, a 2nd term is inevitable"
If you gave some of these guys 1/2 they'd take it

As we get closer election, betting markets will become a far better gauge, as volume surges and serious players get involved (not going to lock up their money for 17 months!)

For the moment Wagmore equivalents running in to Paddy Power with their piggy banks and hammer to back their certainty, are largely dictating the price
 
Last edited:

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,722
You can only deal in here and now
2016 was 31 months ago
2020 is 17 away

Trump right now is in a deeper hole than most people are crediting, largely because, for different reasons, it is in neither side's interest to say it
GOP clearly wont admit it and Dems also wont as they will play it cool
But privately both know they score, the Dems will be really horned up that Trump is in a really bad place and most his best ammo (tax cuts, economy, stock market) is spent or at very least, weaker.

GOP know that a 13% lead in a modern polarised US political environment may as well be 33%

A near 30% deficit in Women and Independents is staggering in modern American politics, and one I feel Trump has no clear plan right now to be able to turn around
And even if his advisors have, it is doubtful he will follow it, or even listen to it for that matter

EG
On CNN yesterday, discussing these poll results, an analyst said he knows Trump campaign have pleaded with him to stop his Biden attacks, that their internal polling is showing is just further strengthening Biden.
But day after day he defies them and impulsively lashes out

Even betting markets are likely overstating his chances
Volume is low this far out and what you mostly see is that probably 80-90% of all bets are for Trump and his price tumbles
But this isn't smart money, it is Trump fans on the koolaid "he is unbeatable, a 2nd term is inevitable"
If you gave some of these guys 1/2 they'd take it

As we get closer election, betting markets will become a far better gauge, as volume surges and serious players get involved (not going to lock up their money for 17 months!)

For the moment Wagmore equivalents running in to Paddy Power with their piggy banks and hammer to back their certainty, are largely dictating the price
In all fairness, and everything being equal, a sitting President should expect to be re-elected, unless he is Jerry Ford, Jimmy Carter or George HW Bush..

But Trump is a non-standard, unique President, so perhaps we can throw out the standard rules.


But I still think Trump will be even money in November 2020, and I won't believe he is beaten until I see the metaphorical stake driven through his heart.

(PS One scenario is that the election comes down to Florida, and a recount shows the Democrat winning. Trump will claim fraud and try to steal the election. The alternative for him may be going to jail.)
 

A Voice

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
7,503
Hang on - you expect me to quote something I’ve literally just said I’ve not seen and don’t believe exists?
I would expect you to be aware of the context when that context has been referenced, and when you post with such conviction on the matter, yes. Turns out it's just a bit of hit and hope on your part. Oh, well.

It's not that important because you got involved here on a bit of sentence logic which can and was resolved - as sentence logic is - independent of any context.
 

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,743
More crap polls for Trump today with Biden and Sanders leading him by double digits


Better still, these polls are now driving him nuts as he took to twitter earlier to tell everyone about "fake polls" and how the real polls (ie ones no one but him have seen) have him at "record highs"
Lunatic

But these polls in fact tell us that those who believe his lies and lunatic claims are are dwindling
His spell is only working on teh rubes, who he has in his pocket anyway.
Nearly everyone else dislikes him and want him gone
 
Last edited:

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,722
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVButtigieg27%31%Trump+4
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVO'Rourke28%32%Trump+4
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVHarris30%33%Trump+3
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVBooker28%32%Trump+4
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVWarren32%33%Trump+1
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVSanders42%32%Trump-10
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVBiden44%33%Trump-11
JUN 8-11, 2019C+
HarrisX
3,007RVDemocrat42%35%Republican-7
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVDemocrat47%35%Republican-12

Not as bad for Trump, but not great either.
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,722
More crap polls for Trump today with Biden and Sanders leading him by double digits


Better still, these polls are now driving him nuts as he took to twitter earlier to tell everyone about "fake polls" and how the real polls (ie ones no one but him have seen) have him at "record highs"
Lunatic
Apparently, the GOP's internal polls are even worse, and show him losing the Rust Belt by a large margin. Trump has ordered the polls suppressed.
 

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,743
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVButtigieg27%31%Trump+4
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVO'Rourke28%32%Trump+4
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVHarris30%33%Trump+3
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVBooker28%32%Trump+4
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVWarren32%33%Trump+1
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVSanders42%32%Trump-10
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVBiden44%33%Trump-11
JUN 8-11, 2019C+
HarrisX
3,007RVDemocrat42%35%Republican-7
JUN 7-9, 2019B-
Morning Consult
1,991RVDemocrat47%35%Republican-12

Not as bad for Trump, but not great either.
ah here
Not bad?
his highest vote against any main Dem candidate is just 33%
How is that "not bad"

If he was leading them by 1-4% say 50-47%, maybe not bad but not 33-31%

I think these poll numbers are actually worse than Quinnipiac's

Also the poll has the Dems in a 12% lead over GOP
That I understand is the highest reading Morning Consult has recorded under Trump
 
Last edited:

GabhaDubh

Well-known member
Joined
May 20, 2009
Messages
2,366
(PS One scenario is that the election comes down to Florida, and a recount shows the Democrat winning. Trump will claim fraud and try to steal the election. The alternative for him may be going to jail.)
Jesus Owedie, 17 months to go, don’t burn out on us.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top