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US Presidential Election 2020 - The Democratic Candidate for President

GabhaDubh

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Joined
May 20, 2009
Messages
2,356
Apparently, the GOP's internal polls are even worse, and show him losing the Rust Belt by a large margin. Trump has ordered the polls suppressed.
If only NYT, CNN, ABC etc, etc had your sources.
 


Jack Walsh

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Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,699
As far as I can see, they've all reported on this self same story.

Trump's internal polling is appalling. Trump doesn't like it.

It's hardly a state secret.
I assume that internal pollster has now been fired, replaced by some guy who draws a new poll in giant crayon
Trump 100%
Sleepy Joe 0%

On a serious note, can you just put yourself in position of that internal pollster
"Mister President, you know those polls you wanted, well I got the results now"
"great stuff, come on over and show me the good news"

downfall-tweet.jpg
 

GabhaDubh

Well-known member
Joined
May 20, 2009
Messages
2,356
As far as I can see, they've all reported on this self same story.

Trump's internal polling is appalling. Trump doesn't like it.

It's hardly a state secret.
Paddy, let me explain how it works, NYT initially report it, then The Hill reports it and so on and so on. Eventually everyone putting their little tweak to it. Now comes Owedie and he/she adds in “Suppression.” Then you have additional verifiable sources for a FISA warrant.
 

Paddyc

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Jan 30, 2009
Messages
9,486
Paddy, let me explain how it works, NYT initially report it, then The Hill reports it and so on and so on. Eventually everyone putting their little tweak to it. Now comes Owedie and he/she adds in “Suppression.” Then you have additional verifiable sources for a FISA warrant.
Sorry, you've lost me now.

If Trump wanted to kill the story, he could have published his internal polling. Guess what, it's in the same place as his college grades, his tax returns, the rest of the Mueller report, the deal with Mexico, his letter from Kim Jung Un, documents on the proposed changes to the census and everything else he's refusing to disclose.
 

Jack Walsh

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Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,699
Sorry, you've lost me now.

If Trump wanted to kill the story, he could have published his internal polling. Guess what, it's in the same place as his college grades, his tax returns, the rest of the Mueller report, the deal with Mexico, his letter from Kim Jung Un, documents on the proposed changes to the census and everything else he's refusing to disclose.

Don't forger the x rays and medical certs for the bone spurs
 

wombat

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Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
32,668
If Trump is so beatable, surely the focus needs to be on what the policies of the Democratic candidates are?
 

Jack Walsh

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Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,699
If Trump is so beatable, surely the focus needs to be on what the policies of the Democratic candidates are?
The focus needs to be on both
And it will be

It is no coincidence to me that the three market leaders, Biden, Sanders and Warren mix policy and regular Trump attacks

Biden in Iowa last night nailed a memorable line that will I suspect be repeated
"He says he's tough, it's easy be tough when you're not the one taking the pain"
Brilliant, take a boy whatever speech writer who got that one included.

The candidates who listened to the snowflake advisers and decided "I'm ignoring him" are getting nowhere, no coverage
 

owedtojoy

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Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,638
If Trump is so beatable, surely the focus needs to be on what the policies of the Democratic candidates are?
There's a candidate for that ...

tote-plan-for-that2_800x.jpg

Warren is outstanding with her policy platforms. Best of the candidates so far, imho, and her vote is increasing.

The election will be both a referendum on Trump (because Trump will make it that way), and also a referendum on the direction of the Republican Party. I think the Democrats will be ready on abortion, education, health, voting rights, the border, climate and taxation.

PS There is also Jay Inslee, who has devoted himself to pushing the climate change issue.
 

Jack Walsh

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Jun 26, 2015
Messages
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Meanwhile, obviously rocked by a series of bad polls, it's time for Plan B
Vote suppression on a massive scale
"Scare all those ingrates who wont vote for me away from polls"

 

Paddyc

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Jan 30, 2009
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Meanwhile, obviously rocked by a series of bad polls, it's time for Plan B
Vote suppression on a massive scale
"Scare all those ingrates who wont vote for me away from polls"

It’s a terrible pity Thomas Hofeller died last summer.

Who? I hear you cry. Just the GOP’s go to guy on gerrymandering over the past two decades, whose daughter has handed his digital archive over to Common Cause.

He was responsible for the 2010 redistricting that gave the Republicans an advantage ever since and he conducted a study in 2015 that showed conclusively that redistricting couldn’t possibly work in 2020 unless the census was amended to ask a question about citizenship.

And to nobody’s great surprise the Trump Administration want to ask a question about citizenship on the 2020 census for the first time ever, what a coincidence.
 

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,150
It’s a terrible pity Thomas Hofeller died last summer.

Who? I hear you cry. Just the GOP’s go to guy on gerrymandering over the past two decades, whose daughter has handed his digital archive over to Common Cause.

He was responsible for the 2010 redistricting that gave the Republicans an advantage ever since and he conducted a study in 2015 that showed conclusively that redistricting couldn’t possibly work in 2020 unless the census was amended to ask a question about citizenship.

And to nobody’s great surprise the Trump Administration want to ask a question about citizenship on the 2020 census for the first time ever, what a coincidence.
Frankly, am surprised at you, there is so much baloney in that post it's hard to know where to begin.

The Democrats won the House in 2018 with about 54% of the vote and about 54% of the seats. What is this GOP advantage that you speak of?

The Democrats picked up 7 Governorships last November, most of them will have control over redistricting. Democrats now have 23 Governorships but govern more than half of the population, but the districts will remain unchanged for the 2020 elections. The census results won't be done in time and thus the redistricting will be done for the 2022 election and the new Electoral College will be in effect for 2024. Similarly the 2010 census results impacted the 2012 elections. Don't think gerrymandering won't happen, it will just be the other guys doing it.

There must be some urban legend doing the rounds about the citizenship question being new on census forms. It was included in every census form from 1820 to 1950, after that it went on the long form or the more detailed form that went to a much smaller segment of the population, between a fifth and a sixth of the population from 1960 until 2000. For 2010 there was no long form issued, it was replaced by the American Community Survey, an annual form that goes out to a small segment of the population.
 

Paddyc

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Joined
Jan 30, 2009
Messages
9,486
Frankly, am surprised at you, there is so much baloney in that post it's hard to know where to begin.

The Democrats won the House in 2018 with about 54% of the vote and about 54% of the seats. What is this GOP advantage that you speak of?

The Democrats picked up 7 Governorships last November, most of them will have control over redistricting. Democrats now have 23 Governorships but govern more than half of the population, but the districts will remain unchanged for the 2020 elections. The census results won't be done in time and thus the redistricting will be done for the 2022 election and the new Electoral College will be in effect for 2024. Similarly the 2010 census results impacted the 2012 elections. Don't think gerrymandering won't happen, it will just be the other guys doing it.

There must be some urban legend doing the rounds about the citizenship question being new on census forms. It was included in every census form from 1820 to 1950, after that it went on the long form or the more detailed form that went to a much smaller segment of the population, between a fifth and a sixth of the population from 1960 until 2000. For 2010 there was no long form issued, it was replaced by the American Community Survey, an annual form that goes out to a small segment of the population.
If there’s nothing to see here, as you claim, then the Trump administration will have no difficulty in handing over the documents detailing their discussions and deliberations over the census question.

The New York Times thinks they’re on to something and there are loads of gerrymandering cases going through the courts in the US these days.
 

owedtojoy

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Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,638
Frankly, am surprised at you, there is so much baloney in that post it's hard to know where to begin.

The Democrats won the House in 2018 with about 54% of the vote and about 54% of the seats. What is this GOP advantage that you speak of?

The Democrats picked up 7 Governorships last November, most of them will have control over redistricting. Democrats now have 23 Governorships but govern more than half of the population, but the districts will remain unchanged for the 2020 elections. The census results won't be done in time and thus the redistricting will be done for the 2022 election and the new Electoral College will be in effect for 2024. Similarly the 2010 census results impacted the 2012 elections. Don't think gerrymandering won't happen, it will just be the other guys doing it.

There must be some urban legend doing the rounds about the citizenship question being new on census forms. It was included in every census form from 1820 to 1950, after that it went on the long form or the more detailed form that went to a much smaller segment of the population, between a fifth and a sixth of the population from 1960 until 2000. For 2010 there was no long form issued, it was replaced by the American Community Survey, an annual form that goes out to a small segment of the population.
This is disingenuous.

There are four cases of gerrymandering before the Supreme Court - 3 out of the 4 are Republican managed, which is about the scope of the problem. Gerrymandering is mostly to Republicans advantage at the moment, and the conservative justices of SCOTUS will be wearing their MAGA T-shirts under their judicial robes.
 

silverharp

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Joined
Jan 21, 2015
Messages
15,936
Apparently conspiracy theorist Rachel Maddow is going to be one of the moderators for the Dems Debates. A lot of pundits not happy with this as she is more an opinion tv host and not a hard news person
 

arsenal

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Joined
Nov 26, 2017
Messages
349
If Trump is so beatable, surely the focus needs to be on what the policies of the Democratic candidates are?
Trump is beatable but he won't lose by double digits as some excited posters seem to think unless the economy hits the wall. The key thing with regards to the democratic nominee and passing legislation is the senate.A narrow presidential win for the democratic candidate will probably not flip the senate,which means that their legislative agenda will die before it starts.

The democrats need a net flip of 3 senate seats and to win the presidency. They will lose their Alabama seat in most scenarios,so they need to flip 4 seats. Colorado is the only one where the democrats will be slight favourites. Arizona is a toss up with Maine and North Carolina have the potential to be very competitive. Texas and Georgia are slightly longer shots for the democrats. They will also have to defend potential vulnerable seats in Michigan and New Hampshire.
 

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