US Presidential Election 2020 - The Democratic Candidate for President

the secretary

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Personally I don't see anyone outside Tiers 1 and 2 figuring at this stage, and I'm still not sure whether Buttigieg has much staying power either, though he seems to be doing very well in Iowa. Tier 3 are all well known figures and yet have made no impact at all at this stage, so they need to be considering their positions.

Fox News had a South Carolina poll yesterday giving radically different figures to the Change Research one (i.e. Biden in 35%). Change have another in NH today showing Warren displacing Sanders at 22% and Biden improving to third in 19%.

American polls 🤦‍♂️
 


Catahualpa

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A 33/1 shot won the Irish Derby (prob 3%) this year, and two years ago a 40/1 odds horse (prob 2.4%) won the Epsom Derby. What were the odds on Liverpool getting to the Champions League when they were 3-0 down to Barcelona?

A 19/1 shot winning a two horse race was unusual, but not a miracle.

Some models has Trump at 2/1 (FiveThirtyEight), the New York Times had him at 6/1, so it was one of those occasions when the outsider won - if it was a poker game, Trump filled an inside straight.

But can he fill an inside straight twice?
The Incumbent is in Pole Position to be re elected

It is rare in the last 100 years or so for the Incumbent to lose as POTUS

Bush in '92 & Carter in '80 are the only recent examples going way back to before FDR of someone elected POTUS not being returned

If the Economy stays strong and Trump is not suckered into another regional war with boots on the ground

- then he looks good to go....
 

owedtojoy

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The Incumbent is in Pole Position to be re elected

It is rare in the last 100 years or so for the Incumbent to lose as POTUS

Bush in '92 & Carter in '80 are the only recent examples going way back to before FDR of someone elected POTUS not being returned

If the Economy stays strong and Trump is not suckered into another regional war with boots on the ground

- then he looks good to go....
Actually, there is nothing there I can disagree with.

Trump should be, and is, the favourite to be re-elected.

However, it is not as easy as it looks. As the case of Clinton showed, favourites in the odds do not always win, and sometimes what looks plausible on paper turns out differently.

For example, Trump got a lower popular vote share that Bush II in 2000 (46.1% against Bush II 47.9%). Bush was also a minority popular vote President.

In 2004, Bush II upped his vote to 50.7%, but that increase for Trump will still leave Trump with a minority in the popular vote, and dependent on pulling off the same state results as 2016. In other words, he needs to fill a straight again in the 2020 poker game.

Trump may of course be more popular in 2020 than he is now, but I so not see him taking any steps to shift popular support in his direction.

At the moment, Trump is 11/9 favourite in the betting markets, just about even money. He may be favourite at 3/2 on by November 2020, but it is still basically going to be a coin toss.
 
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owedtojoy

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Some reporting from Netroots Nation, a major gathering of progressive political activists.

Joe Biden was not flavour of the moment, but the story has a sting in the tail.

Attendees not only told me that they weren't supporting Biden, they said they didn't like him for a whole host of reasons -- from thinking that his views were out of step with today's more progressive party to the belief he's the male version of Hillary Clinton, as one person put it.
But even these people made it clear they would 100% support Biden if he were the nominee -- though they often added that, if Biden wins the nomination, he "absolutely" needs to pick a very progressive running mate, and that person should be a woman or person of color, or both.
... this year's conference was marked by a singular mantra in approaching the 2020 election that I heard time and time again: "Vote Blue, no matter who."
 

owedtojoy

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Pennsylvania may decide the 2020 Presidential election ...

Podcast from 538.


Key Takeaways;

Very much Urban (Democratic) vs Rural/ Small Town (Republican) with the suburbs deciding. In 2016, Clinton majorities in the cities were not enough to offset Republican wins in country and suburbs.

But the suburbs tended Democratic in 2018.

Trump is less popular in Pennsylvania than he is nationally.

Biden would be the strongest Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania.
 
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Peter72

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None of the Fab 4 could condemn the ANTIFA terror attack on the ICE facility in Washington last week.

Democrats really love shooting themselves in the foot.

As if to think putting these 4 anti Americans forward as poster girls would win back the Dems who voted for Trump. :D
 
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Paddyc

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None of the Fab 4 could condemn the ANTIFA terror attack on the ICA facility in Washington last week.

Democrats really love shooting themselves in the foot.

As if to think putting these 4 anti Americans forward as poster girls would win back the Dems who voted for Trump. :D
Somebody attacked the Irish Countrywomen's Association?

Oh the humanity!
 

owedtojoy

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bt-early-contests-vote-percent-1.jpg


If we consider a 15% threshold as the minimum support needed to win convention delegates, then across the early states, four candidates would meet that benchmark: Biden, Warren, Harris and Bernie Sanders.
 

owedtojoy

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Just a bit strange. He's posted from his holidays before. Rumours suggests big stuff coming down the Pike--could be he's getting out of Dodge. His Dem buddies are done
Let us know how many chickens you counted, before we see the actual number.
 

Wagmore

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Let us know how many chickens you counted, before we see the actual number.
Just think it's weird that a rapid Democrat hack has headed for the hills without any explanation. This place could have doubled as the day job for Jack. I suspected it was. Am just wondering and curious about what prompted him scarpering
 

owedtojoy

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Just think it's weird that a rapid Democrat hack has headed for the hills without any explanation. This place could have doubled as the day job for Jack. I suspected it was. Am just wondering and curious about what prompted him scarpering
I don't lose sleep wondering where your compatriot valhamic disappeared to.
 
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A Voice

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Just think it's weird that a rapid Democrat hack has headed for the hills without any explanation. This place could have doubled as the day job for Jack. I suspected it was. Am just wondering and curious about what prompted him scarpering
He probably wore himself out predicting the downturn that would see Trump rejected in 2020. Reality, alas, has not cooperated thus far:

each week the economic news “unexpectedly” and “surprisingly” improves or stays steady — in ways well aside from the staples of continued near-record-low peacetime unemployment (3.8 percent), near-record-low minority unemployment, booming annualized GDP (3.1 percent), and a record-high stock market.

In June, retail sales increased for the fourth straight month. The rate of Hispanic home ownership continues to increase. A quarter-million new jobs were created in June, with strong growth in construction and manufacturing. Record oil and gas production seems only to keep increasing. Strong wage growth of 3.4 percent continues.
 

Jack Walsh

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He probably wore himself out predicting the downturn that would see Trump rejected in 2020. Reality, alas, has not cooperated thus far:
I don't predict anything (no one can tell the future and those who claim they can are BS artists), I deal with what is in front of me in hard numbers not opinions, BS boasts and waffle
I have said for nearly a year that the US economy is slowing and it is!



The US Economy is slowing and Trump's claims the current US Economy is "the strongest in history" is simply risible BS that only a raving imbecile would swallow

Trump last year promised "4% is good but we are going higher, 5-6% growth"
He now has an anaemic 2% and even the 2018 growth he endlessly bragged about has been revised downwards to 2.9%

And if you want to drill into the puny 2.1% current growth, it is largely propped up by consumer spending from the 1st quarter stock market gains not any sound underlying growth (manufacturing, housing, cars, industrial production etc)

Trump's big BS about the US economy was always a big fat lie, the good news about today's number is that it makes it harder for anyone sane to swallow his shite claims

Cue Twitter bawling at the Fed, Obama, Clinton, China and Mexico
 

silverharp

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Muller probably put a nail in the coffin for the 2 oldest Dem candidates
 

A Voice

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I don't predict anything (no one can tell the future and those who claim they can are BS artists), I deal with what is in front of me in hard numbers not opinions, BS boasts and waffle
I have said for nearly a year that the US economy is slowing and it is!



The US Economy is slowing and Trump's claims the current US Economy is "the strongest in history" is simply risible BS that only a raving imbecile would swallow

Trump last year promised "4% is good but we are going higher, 5-6% growth"
He now has an anaemic 2% and even the 2018 growth he endlessly bragged about has been revised downwards to 2.9%

And if you want to drill into the puny 2.1% current growth, it is largely propped up by consumer spending from the 1st quarter stock market gains not any sound underlying growth (manufacturing, housing, cars, industrial production etc)

Trump's big BS about the US economy was always a big fat lie, the good news about today's number is that it makes it harder for anyone sane to swallow his shite claims

Cue Twitter bawling at the Fed, Obama, Clinton, China and Mexico
OK.
 


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