US Presidential Election 2020 - The Democratic Candidate for President

Itsalaugh

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 1, 2013
Messages
3,321
I didn't think he'd be nominated, never mind be elected but I couldn't believe the hatred of Clinton among some rational people I know. I think that the only way Trump will be elected is if the Democrats select a radical as nominee or VP candidate. Negative campaigning is very powerful.
About 3million hardcore Clinton supporters in 2008 voted for McCain and then stayed with Romney. They returned to Hilary in 2016 but Black Americans didnt turn out for her in large numbers and 3million white blue collar Obama supporters switched to Trump.
If Sanders is selected those 3million Hilary supporters who went with McCain/Romney are likely to back Trump. Bernie would take back some of Trumps Obama voters. So it'd even out. But if Bernie's class narrative resonated that poor/struggling Americans nomatter of what colour/creed are being victimised/targeted by a system rigged to enhance elite privilege than Trump could be routed across the rust belt. The DNC/CNN/NYT and their corporatist buddies of course would be apoplexic Sanders winning on an equality/redisributive economic agenda that unites the struggling masses, so of course they non stop promogate 'white supremacy' with the aim the mininum wage mechanic in West Virginia never can find commonality with the single mum Latina barista from San Bernadino. Truth be told the corporatist agenda would consider stoking a race war as preferable to the US embracing genuine leftist economics.
 


owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
47,318
bargaining rights.
Based on all current polling, I think Trump would do well to get 45%, but accept your point that it would take a seminal election to move the dial back much further than that.
I think if you aggregated the very best A polls of last few weeks, Biden beats him by not less than 10% at present.
But the big mistake GOP are making for me at least is that they are banking 45% and comforting themselves they only need to get 3-4% on top of that to squeak home again

The big problem is that the remaining 55% don't appear to contain too many floaters, in fact it is heavily stacked with voters who have absolutely no intention whatsoever of voting for him

Turnout is going to be massive, I think we will see at least 25 million extra votes next year and that mostly spells trouble for Trump as it will be primarily young and not party affiliated.

16-20 million 18-22 years old eligible new entrants will vote massively against Trump
And the 14-18 million who have died since 2016 will have been at least 60-40 Trump votes

So straight away, Trump has a 6-million voter deficit from 2016 to make up, even if every living person who voted for him in 2016 did so again (and current polling says he isn't even getting that)

Add in the 3 million deficit he actually lost by in 2016, Trump is in not less than 10 million vote deficit scenario right now
No EC anomaly would save him here
That on its own is a massive issue for him (and one which I repeat almost every poll is underplaying due to under polling under 30s and over polling over 60s)

I have asked numerous times how does Trump get a winning total (80 million votes) from where he is right now (65m -70 million tops)?

More tax giveaways, pump the Economy with zero interest rates after staging A coup at Fed? Possible
A contrived war? he has no scruples whatsoever, so definitely a possibility, even though it could rebound on him and GOP spectacularly if seen as been contrived

A complete change of personality?????? Not a chance, he is simply not capable of that sort of self restraint
Have I mentioned Ser Bronn of the Blackwater, with the best quote from Game of Thrones "There is no cure for being a c*nt" ?

tenor.gif

If there was a cure, Ivanka and Jared would have slipped it in Trump's coffee by now. But there isn't, and he is one.

Most voters realise that. So there is a massive negative reason not to vote for him. It is up to Democrats to supplement it with some positive reasons to vote for them.
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
47,318


Trump has eviscerated the Endangered Species Act, passed in the years of Richard Nixon.

This has been an immensely popular law, with no public pressure for its degrading - except from profiteering corporations.

I wonder will Jill Stein run in 2020 on a platform of "Vote for me, and continue the massacre of endangered species for another four years"?

... did you know the nominally left-wing vanity candidate who tried hard to throw the election to Trump in 2016 .... ran on a “Green” ticket? True story!
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
47,318
12-electoral-map-2020.w700.h467.jpg

If the election was today, and Trump's votes were based on his Job Approval rating in each state, he would lose by 119 Electoral Votes to 419. He would lose even Utah, Arizona, Texas and Georgia, states that have not voted Democrat for a long time.

Ok, it is still 15 months or so to the election, but if Trump cannot improve on his current -10 rating in the polls, he will be Toast.

A Popular Vote loss of that margin makes an Electoral College victory remote. No one has ever won the Electoral College after losing the Popular Vote by more than 4 points. No need even for him to whine about voter fraud.

This article gives him 4 chances:

(1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency;
(2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either;
(3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018;
(4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.


(4) is a possibility, especially when spiced with gerrymandering and vote suppression.
 

silverharp

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 21, 2015
Messages
16,122
none of these polls have any real value, find out who the real candidate is first, then post debates
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
47,318
none of these polls have any real value, find out who the real candidate is first, then post debates
This far into his Presidency, Ronald Reagan was at 44% Job Approval, Bill Clinton was at 46.6%, and Barack Obama was at 43.6%.

Trump is at 42% (FiveThirtyEight).

By the time they were re-elected the above 3 Presidents had ratings at ~50% or more.

Trump's rating has been static at around 42% since May 2017. If his ratings stay for the next 15 months where they have been for the last 15, then he is in trouble.

Of course he could beat the odds again in 2020, but the circumstances are worse than 2016.
 

Catahualpa

Well-known member
Joined
May 12, 2019
Messages
524
Website
irelandinhistory.blogspot.com
This far into his Presidency, Ronald Reagan was at 44% Job Approval, Bill Clinton was at 46.6%, and Barack Obama was at 43.6%.

Trump is at 42% (FiveThirtyEight).

By the time they were re-elected the above 3 Presidents had ratings at ~50% or more.

Trump's rating has been static at around 42% since May 2017. If his ratings stay for the next 15 months where they have been for the last 15, then he is in trouble.

Of course he could beat the odds again in 2020, but the circumstances are worse than 2016.
They told us he had no chance of winning the last time too

Hey guess what? - He Won! 😄
 

wombat

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
32,879
(2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either;
I disagree, if the Democrats choose the wrong ticket, the election will be about them rather than Trump.
 

midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
5,769
Gravis have every single Dem beating Trump in New Hampshire


Bernie beats him by 10%, Biden by 13%
And this a state Trump lost by just 0.4% in 2016
They also have Sanders ahead in the state at 21%, Biden and Sanders fighting for second on 12-15%. and everyone else virtually irrelevant at below 10%.

It's the first poll in NH since early July that doesn't have Biden leading.

 

silverharp

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 21, 2015
Messages
16,122
This far into his Presidency, Ronald Reagan was at 44% Job Approval, Bill Clinton was at 46.6%, and Barack Obama was at 43.6%.

Trump is at 42% (FiveThirtyEight).

By the time they were re-elected the above 3 Presidents had ratings at ~50% or more.

Trump's rating has been static at around 42% since May 2017. If his ratings stay for the next 15 months where they have been for the last 15, then he is in trouble.

Of course he could beat the odds again in 2020, but the circumstances are worse than 2016.
at the end of the day its who turns up to vote, the dems arent uniited, all their candidates will split their vote, some of them wont show up or will vote some third party candidate
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,447
No, it said "they told us", people talk.
It said that in response to post about polling, not ‘media talking heads’.

And as it goes plenty media folk were reflecting what the numbers were - Clinton was the favourite but not that Trump had no chance.
 

jmcc

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,313

That 98.2% chance of HRC winning never gets old. It played right into the hands of those who had brainwashed themselves on the effluent from CNN etc. Even Nate Silver (538) called the Huffypo people clueless about it. But then these polls had serious problems but they were overlooked by the HRC shills in the media. HRC was their candidate.

Trump did something terrible to these people and the HRC fans here. He made people who thought that they were smart look stupid. They can never forgive him for that. Now we have people like Owde trying to rewrite history claiming he was advocating that HRC was the least worst option and others trying to blame anyone other than themselves for getting the election wrong.
 
Last edited:

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,607
They also have Sanders ahead in the state at 21%, Biden and Sanders fighting for second on 12-15%. and everyone else virtually irrelevant at below 10%.

It's the first poll in NH since early July that doesn't have Biden leading.

Sanders seems to have regained traction and looks to have tipped ahead of Warren again
Harris slump is surprising and it looks like her attack on Biden ultimately rebounded.
Biden is proving very hard to attack, he is perceived as reeking decency and integrity so saying "I'm not saying you are a racist but" looks now in hindsight like too nasty and has scarred her ( temporarily at least)
Dem candidates look like they have to topple Biden through conventional policy arguments
The "creepy" attacks bombed and now the "racist" ones clearly have.
I think the "dementia" ones will meet a similar fate (at least internally)

He's not a scared cow but he is respected and liked and no one likes to see such a candidate savaged Trump guttersnipe style

Trump's head to head numbers are just dire and given how few floating voters there appears to be, a 10% gap (and that's what it looks like) even this far out is huge.

At exactly the same point in Aug 2011, Obama was ahead of all GOP candidates and level with Romney, but had the benefit of a recovering economy starting to aid him from there.
Trump is 10% behind and an economy that is undoubtedly slowing

The few sane people around Trump have a lot to be worried about at this juncture
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
47,318
I disagree, if the Democrats choose the wrong ticket, the election will be about them rather than Trump.
There are plenty of people for whom any Democrat ticket is "the wrong ticket". If there is not a reason to declare it wrong, one will be invented.

OTOH. there are dozens of reasons why Trump is a shyte President, but will the media talk about them?

1565732489940.jpeg
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top