- Feb 27, 2010
This pretty will sums up the 2016 Election ... Trump has a smaller chance to win than Clinton.
It was like poker - based on the cards showing, Clinton had a better chance of filling a Flush than Trump of filling a Straight. But the cards fell the right way for Trump.
That is history, now. But in 2020, the chart above will very possibly be the same for Trump and his opponent. Notice that if the Popular Vote margin exceeds the 2.1% by which Clinton's vote exceeded Trump's in 2016, his chances of winning drop to 0 very quickly.
There was one thing the polls got right in 2016 - on the eve of polling, Trump was only 2% behind on the RealClearPolitics Polls Aggregate, giving him a decent chance of winning. And that is what came to pass.
No candidate has ever lost the Presidency in the Electoral College after winning a Popular Vote margin of greater than 3% over his/ her nearest opponent.
- Andrew Jackson had a 10% margin over John Quincy Adams in 1824, but the election was decided for Adams by the House of Representatives, not the Electoral College, because no candidate had reached the required Electoral Vote total (which is now 270).
- The President who lost the Popular Vote by the largest margin and still won in the Electoral College was Rutherford Hayes in 1876, in a really, really dodgy election. The margin was 3%.