US Presidential Election 2020 - The Democratic Candidate for President

owedtojoy

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silver-essay11-2.png

This pretty will sums up the 2016 Election ... Trump has a smaller chance to win than Clinton.

It was like poker - based on the cards showing, Clinton had a better chance of filling a Flush than Trump of filling a Straight. But the cards fell the right way for Trump.

That is history, now. But in 2020, the chart above will very possibly be the same for Trump and his opponent. Notice that if the Popular Vote margin exceeds the 2.1% by which Clinton's vote exceeded Trump's in 2016, his chances of winning drop to 0 very quickly.

There was one thing the polls got right in 2016 - on the eve of polling, Trump was only 2% behind on the RealClearPolitics Polls Aggregate, giving him a decent chance of winning. And that is what came to pass.

Owedtojoy's Observation:

No candidate has ever lost the Presidency in the Electoral College after winning a Popular Vote margin of greater than 3% over his/ her nearest opponent.

Historical Notes:

  • Andrew Jackson had a 10% margin over John Quincy Adams in 1824, but the election was decided for Adams by the House of Representatives, not the Electoral College, because no candidate had reached the required Electoral Vote total (which is now 270).
  • The President who lost the Popular Vote by the largest margin and still won in the Electoral College was Rutherford Hayes in 1876, in a really, really dodgy election. The margin was 3%.
 
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silverharp

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I am staggered by the intellectual brilliance of Trump supporters.
I'd be looking inwards at your lack of a sense of humor, anyway is Warren being smart?
 

owedtojoy

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Nate Silver's little article on what probability means is worth reading.


Trump's odds of winning on election eve, by this model, was 71/29, or 2.45/1. Not bad - many is the nag who won at those odds, and it was only a two-horse race.

And as a bonus ...

 

Clanrickard

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Apr 25, 2008
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Warren is the one DJT wants to be the Democrats Candidate

- and its easy to see why....
Pocahontas is clever. Far cleverer than Trump.
 


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