US Presidential Election 2020 - The Democratic Candidate for President


owedtojoy

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Latest nomination odds in the Betting Markets

Kemala Harris 4/1
Bernie Sanders 5/1
Joe Biden 6/1
Beto O Rourke 6/1
Sherrod Brown 19/1
Amy Klobuchar 19/1
Elizabeth Warren 19/1
Cory Booker 24/1
Tulsi Gabbard 32/1
Kirsten Gillibrand 49/1
Julian Castro 99/1

Trump is still 2/1 to be returned as President in 2020.
 

NYCKY

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A few others ruled themselves out today too, Senator Merkley of Oregon and former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg. Merkley was the only Democratic Senator to endorse Sanders in the 2016 primary. Will be interesting to see what he does this time.

The field is starting to crystallize as more candidates opt in or opt out. There are really only a few heavy hitters left to declare, Biden is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. A few of the others would be Beto, Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Governer Steve Bullock of Montant might round out the rest.
 

Dame_Enda

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Latest nomination odds in the Betting Markets

Kemala Harris 4/1
Bernie Sanders 5/1
Joe Biden 6/1
Beto O Rourke 6/1
Sherrod Brown 19/1
Amy Klobuchar 19/1
Elizabeth Warren 19/1
Cory Booker 24/1
Tulsi Gabbard 32/1
Kirsten Gillibrand 49/1
Julian Castro 99/1

Trump is still 2/1 to be returned as President in 2020.
Harris is a consistent third in recent polls behind Sanders and Biden.
 

NYCKY

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Harris is a consistent third in recent polls behind Sanders and Biden.
It's perhaps a good omen for Harris but may be more reflective of the large California population.

The reason Biden and Sanders carry consistent high polling support is simply their name recognition. Many of those being polled will either have voted for one or both candidates or campaigned or fundraised or brought people to polls etc. Both Biden and Sanders have run recent campaigns for national office. Biden was VP for 8 years and Sanders contested all 50 states (plus some territories) in garnering 45% of the vote in 2016. Sanders was still winning primaries on the last day when it was long clear that he wouldn't be the nominee.

Biden isn't even in the race yet though it appears likely he will join. He certainly doesn't have a Hillary clear the field gravitas but he does have a lot of staffers, donors, pollsters etc sitting on the sidelines waiting for his decision. In a very crowded field, the lure of a strong paycheck from others won't keep them on the sidelines indefinitely though. Biden will need to decide soon and if he gets in the race his polling may suffer. To be fair, in a crowded field like this is, Biden doesn't need to improve on these numbers he just needs to maintain them.
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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It's perhaps a good omen for Harris but may be more reflective of the large California population.

The reason Biden and Sanders carry consistent high polling support is simply their name recognition. Many of those being polled will either have voted for one or both candidates or campaigned or fundraised or brought people to polls etc. Both Biden and Sanders have run recent campaigns for national office. Biden was VP for 8 years and Sanders contested all 50 states (plus some territories) in garnering 45% of the vote in 2016. Sanders was still winning primaries on the last day when it was long clear that he wouldn't be the nominee.

Biden isn't even in the race yet though it appears likely he will join. He certainly doesn't have a Hillary clear the field gravitas but he does have a lot of staffers, donors, pollsters etc sitting on the sidelines waiting for his decision. In a very crowded field, the lure of a strong paycheck from others won't keep them on the sidelines indefinitely though. Biden will need to decide soon and if he gets in the race his polling may suffer. To be fair, in a crowded field like this is, Biden doesn't need to improve on these numbers he just needs to maintain them.
On the bolded, he's gonna have to get in the race within the next 30 days IMO or else the holdouts will likely have to make a decision upon someone else.

Biden and Sanders also get their high numbers due to name recognition and their general popularity amongst Democrats build upon it over their careers. The primary races, however, don't even happen until next year, so there's plenty of time to test how well they'll do against a crowded field in the midst along with Trumpian trolling. You can bet the farm that the other Dem candidates will seek the fledgling dark horse spot and there's plenty of them...arguably too many already given how the 2016 GOP primary turned out that put Trump and Cruz in the final stages with Trump the clear leader with the biggest and most fervent plurality.
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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She had her day and certainly her chances. For all her flaws and mistakes, IMO history will be much kinder to her. She had a great experience starting with Watergate, civil rights movements, two term First Lady of a state and then the US, a US Senator, A US Secretary of State, and a two time Presidential candidate where she won the popular vote in the 2008 Dem primary and 2016 general election where she lost by a hair due to delegate or EC rules and, in 2016, some unfair sabotage from Russia and Comey in 'October Surprises'. She was the first woman to be a Presidential general election candidate for a main party.

Given the interplay of her mistake and weaknesses along with her strengths and the burdens of being a trailblazer, it's got to torment herself to know that she'll never enter the 'Promised Land' as the US's first female President that she could eventually see and almost grasp, but being a 'Ms Moses' to an eventual female POTUS isn't a bad legacy at all.
 

owedtojoy

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Harris is a consistent third in recent polls behind Sanders and Biden.
The pundits pretty much agree Harris has "won" the early battles.

A lot of Sanders and Biden support is coming from name recognition - without much previous national exposure, Kamala Harris is in a good place.

If nothing else, she has made herself a very viable Vice Presidential pick for a white male candidate.

Still early days.

Which 2020 Candidate Got The Biggest Polling Bump Out Of Their Kickoff? | FiveThirtyEight
 

owedtojoy

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In the last few days, both Eric Holder (Obama's Attorney-General in his first term) and Michael Bloomberg have announced they will NOT run for President.

Bloomberg said he thought he could win the election, but cited the "crowded field" as a reason for not seeking a nomination.

That is probably it for Bloomberg in Presidential politics - Holder might have an outsider's chance of being a VP pick for someone.

But in these days of announcements, it is refreshing to see the reverse.
 

Jack Walsh

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The pundits pretty much agree Harris has "won" the early battles.

A lot of Sanders and Biden support is coming from name recognition - without much previous national exposure, Kamala Harris is in a good place.

If nothing else, she has made herself a very viable Vice Presidential pick for a white male candidate.

Still early days.

Which 2020 Candidate Got The Biggest Polling Bump Out Of Their Kickoff? | FiveThirtyEight
Interesting poll out of Minnesota.

http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/Minnesota_Rail_Survey__2019_March.pdf

Klobuchar beats Trump by 17% even with Schultz taking 7%, so therefore really beats him by about 20%

Any Dem nominee beats Trump by 10% (again with Schultz included, so probably a 12-13% in a head to head )

Trump losing a state by between 12 and 20% that he lost by 1% in 2016 is close to disastrous

I feel one person who will really like the look of this poll is Sherrod Brown

If Klobuchar can outperform the Dem candidate by nearly 10% in her home state, that sort of dividend will almost certainly deliver Ohio for Brown
That would be pure gold for Dems
 

Betson

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It's perhaps a good omen for Harris but may be more reflective of the large California population.

The reason Biden and Sanders carry consistent high polling support is simply their name recognition. Many of those being polled will either have voted for one or both candidates or campaigned or fundraised or brought people to polls etc. Both Biden and Sanders have run recent campaigns for national office. Biden was VP for 8 years and Sanders contested all 50 states (plus some territories) in garnering 45% of the vote in 2016. Sanders was still winning primaries on the last day when it was long clear that he wouldn't be the nominee.

Biden isn't even in the race yet though it appears likely he will join. He certainly doesn't have a Hillary clear the field gravitas but he does have a lot of staffers, donors, pollsters etc sitting on the sidelines waiting for his decision. In a very crowded field, the lure of a strong paycheck from others won't keep them on the sidelines indefinitely though. Biden will need to decide soon and if he gets in the race his polling may suffer. To be fair, in a crowded field like this is, Biden doesn't need to improve on these numbers he just needs to maintain them.
I don't think Biden will enter , his time has past and like Bloomberg he would not have the stomach for a fight with Trump . But if he does enter the big question will be if Obama endorses him or just stays neutral on the sidelines , probably the latter.
 

owedtojoy

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I don't think Biden will enter , his time has past and like Bloomberg he would not have the stomach for a fight with Trump . But if he does enter the big question will be if Obama endorses him or just stays neutral on the sidelines , probably the latter.
All the signs [so far] are is that Obama will not endorse anyone .... not until the Convention selects someone, that is.
 

NYCKY

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In the last few days, both Eric Holder (Obama's Attorney-General in his first term) and Michael Bloomberg have announced they will NOT run for President.

Bloomberg said he thought he could win the election, but cited the "crowded field" as a reason for not seeking a nomination.

That is probably it for Bloomberg in Presidential politics - Holder might have an outsider's chance of being a VP pick for someone.

But in these days of announcements, it is refreshing to see the reverse.
Eric Holder has no realistic chance of making it onto the ticket. He has far too much baggage and is too polarizing to be seriously considered. The first rule for picking a VP candidate is like in medicing, "do no harm" and Holder would repel far more voters than he could bring to the table. His position on many issues is toxic for too many voters.
 

owedtojoy

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Warnings to Democrats that when Joe Biden ran for President before, he turned a lacklustre performance ....

[TWEET]1103346176001302529[/TWEET]

@daveweigel
Follow Follow @daveweigel
More Dave Weigel Retweeted Ian Gregory Veitch
This is a perception, but as rival campaigns will (quietly) tell you, Biden wasn't a great anti-Trump surrogate in 2016. Forgettable DNC speech, weird gaffe when he mused about fighting Trump behind a gym
Daniel W. Drezner on Twitter:

Some Biden-watchers think his heart is not in it.

Certainly the Horse-Race Media Touts want him to get out in the scrum again, but I don’t get the impression he’s all that enthusiastic about the idea. In fact, I’m getting a strong flavor of Teddy Kennedy’s reluctance before his disastrous campaign against Jimmy Carter
Open Thread: Does Joe Biden Actually Want to Run Again? Balloon Juice
 

Paddyc

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I don't think Biden will enter , his time has past and like Bloomberg he would not have the stomach for a fight with Trump . But if he does enter the big question will be if Obama endorses him or just stays neutral on the sidelines , probably the latter.
Biden certainly won't enter unless he has Obama's endorsement in the bag.

I'd say he fancies his chances against Trump, as do so many other Democratic candidates, a bunch of whom aren't known outside their home state.

Trump won by a hairsbreadth last time, against an uncharismatic candidate who had a lot of baggage and that was before we knew how Trump would run the country and suck up to dictators.

He's imminently beatable.
 

owedtojoy

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Biden certainly won't enter unless he has Obama's endorsement in the bag.

I'd say he fancies his chances against Trump, as do so many other Democratic candidates, a bunch of whom aren't known outside their home state.

Trump won by a hairsbreadth last time, against an uncharismatic candidate who had a lot of baggage and that was before we knew how Trump would run the country and suck up to dictators.

He's imminently beatable.
Biden will not get Obama's endorsement, not until, or if, he is nominated.

There is a lot being presumed about Biden as a charismatic figure, actually he is not that good a campaigner at all.

If he runs, I think he will be deflated by the opposition and not make the cut.
 

owedtojoy

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Sherrod Brown is out.

I think that is good news for Amy Klobuchar, and probably for Bernie Sanders.

The man does have a plan, though, to win more white working class votes in the Rust Belt.

The "dignity of work," Sherrod Brown’s plan for Democrats to win back working-class voters, explained

Brown will probably be more useful to Democrats in the Senate.

As some commentators have pointed out, a Democratic President will not be able to accomplish much in the way of legislation without a Senate majority, nor will he be able to get judges appointed. Losing Brown's Senate seat, as might happen, would not be for the good.

A "!swing vote" Senator like Joe Manchin (D) or Susan Collins (R) occupies one of the most influential positions in US politics.
 
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