- Apr 17, 2010
It's not being rejigged for 2020. The census is next year and the results wont' be finalized in time for the Presidential election year. The new EC will be in place for the 2022 midterms and the 2024 POTUS election.I have a hunch (just a hunch) that it won't be that close. However the above scenario would indeed be remarkable. I didn't realise the EC was being rejigged for 2020 - I thought that only happened after a census?
Projections indicate that the rust belt will lose seats and the south and west will pick up seats (and EC votes). It will be something of a mixed bag for both parties. Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia are all likely to lose a seat. New York is likely to lose two and Texas likely to pick up two or possibly three. Florida also likely to pick up two seats. Oregon, Colorado and Montana are likely to pick up one. Alabama likely to lose one seat, which would be offset by a pick up on Utah.
In what would be a stunning reversal of fortune, California is likely to lose a seat, for the first time since they entered the Union way back in 1850. The 2010 census was the first time the state didn't actually pick up seats but even losing one seat would still see the state as a massive gimme for a Democratic candidate.