US Presidential race : what effect will the Libertarian Party's nominee Gary Johnson have?

cyberianpan

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Trump is an abomination

Billary are in deep trouble

How will the Libertarian campaign play out?

Libertarians See Chance Amid Discontent Over Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton - NYTimes.com
“I’m going to go knocking on every door I can to try to help us along,” said Mr. Weld, who played down reports that the billionaire Koch brothers had agreed to bankroll the Johnson-Weld ticket.

The possible effect of the Libertarians on the November election remains unclear, as most state polls have not included any of the candidates and the party is not yet on the ballot in every state.
1)Do they get on all the ballots
2)Do they make 15% in polling to win a place in the first debate
3) Will mega donors cough up
4) Can they seize the public imagination

Based on that there are two potential outcomes
A) They don't win, but they shift the race
B) They win

I think (A) is likely, I lack data to evaluate (B) just now

Cyp
 


Dame_Enda

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In polls where the party is included they split the GOP and Dem vote but Hillary usually benefits more. Also Green candidate Jill Stein is on the ballot in at least 13 states and trying to get on it in 8 more and polls indicate she hurts Hillary slightly.
 

Boy M5

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Didn't the Liertarian candidate take his clothes off on stage last night?

Carlos, Is that nun Sr Angelica of EWTN ?
 

cyberianpan

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The issue is that polling models are not fine grained enough to deal with 3rd party candidates, especially on a state by state basis...so even if its only a spoiler effect, it will be difficult to call

If Hillary falls over the email issue, Johnson will be fully competitive

Libertarians Pick Gary Johnson and William Weld as Presidential Election Ticket - WSJ

Mr. Weld was elected twice in heavily Democratic Massachusetts, governing as a moderate Republican with liberal views on abortion, gay rights and gun laws.
...
opinion polls showing more Americans open to a third-party candidacy in 2016 than ever before,
... Indeed, a large comic book, science fiction and anime exposition was being held adjacent to Libertarian convention, leading delegates to mingle in the hotel with a steady stream of people dressed in costumes depicting characters, such as Pokémon’s Pikachu and Star Wars’ Han Solo.
 

NYCKY

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The Libertarian ticket won't win but they could poll well enough to get into the debates. The ticket will certainly hold appeal for the voters that are voting against the candidate they like least rather than for the candidate they like most.

Polling has consistently shown that Trump and Clinton are each the nominees with the highest negative numbers ever and the sparse polling done that included Johnson showed him in high single/low double digits.

Even if this ticket was to get in the high single digits on polling day, it could be enough to significantly alter the electoral map.
 

Dame_Enda

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Didn't the Liertarian candidate take his clothes off on stage last night?

Carlos, Is that nun Sr Angelica of EWTN ?
Not the presidential candidate but a candidate for chairman. But I guess it's a metaphor for stripping down government to its bare essentials.

This year I think it could lose Trump Arizona, Georgia and NC at least. And that's before Bill Kristols possible third party candidate enters the race.
 

livingstone

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It's really not clear yet what impact they will have, but it seems likely to be more significant than in 2012 or 2008.

If you look at the appeal of Johnson:

1. Moderate (fiscally conservative, not too far to the right on cultural issues etc)
2. Right temperament (i.e. not Trump)
3. Trusted (i.e. not Clinton)

Now, if you think of those three features, 1, 2 and a little bit of 3 might attract people who would otherwise vote for Trump. Trump is still regarded as too far to the right on immigration by many - including many moderate Republicans who recognise the problems to the economy if you try to mass-deport illegals or if you seek to ban people based on religion.

Trump's critics in the GOP fall into two camps, I think - those who think he's a dangerous extremist, and those who think he's not conservative enough on, e.g. gay marriage, abortion etc. The latter group will find no solace in Johnson, but the former group might.

As for Clinton, she is essentially a moderate Democrat. Were her unfavourable lower, and if you were just looking at her policy platform, she would be well positioned to win over some moderate Republicans. Forgetting about her personal attributes, though, I don't think anyone will make the argument that Clinton is really too far to the left. The primaries have pushed her a bit to the left, but she already has sufficient stock in the bag being (a) a Clinton (a byword for being a moderate or even right-leaning Democrat; and (b) having a pragmatic and bipartisan record in the Senate.

So there isn't going to be a big constituency saying 'I'd vote for the Democrats if only they were closer to the centre' in this election. There will be a constituency saying 'I'd vote for the Democrats if they were further left', but again, they're not going to find much appeal in Johnson. Some of his positions (on, e.g. drugs) might be attractive, but his economic policies aren't going to appeal to those on the left more than Clinton's.

So on the first 'attraction', you'd have to imagine that Johnson hurts Trump more than Clinton.

On the second factor, temperament, again, Trump loses out to Clinton. Whatever one's disagreements with Clinton on policy or trustworthiness, the general perception is that she is qualified and able to be President and to exercise rational judgement in office (even if one disagrees with the judgement she eventually reaches). There is unlikely to be a big constituency saying 'I'd vote for Clinton but she's just too unpredictable/hotheaded/risky'.

Trump, on the other hand, is the opposite. There will be a cohort who would vote for him but would view him as being either too intemperate, or too undignified, to hold the office. So again, on this second 'attraction', Johnson would seem to hurt Trump more than Clinton.

It's only the last one where Clinton is hurt. There will be people, probably moderates, natural, centrist voters who would normally vote Democrat who just don't trust Clinton.

Trump's problem is that I doubt he's massively trusted either. There is a perception that he will say whatever it takes to get votes, that he's only out for his own financial wellbeing etc.

On this third attraction of Johnson, I would say he would hurt Clinton marginally more, but not too much more than Trump.

On balance then, I think Trump has more to lose than Clinton. But not as much as he would lose if the 'third party' challenge was coming mainly from someone on the conservative right.
 

Dame_Enda

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The Libertarian stripshow here.

[video=youtube_share;d45x4OpMoow]http://youtu.be/d45x4OpMoow[/video]
 

cyberianpan

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It's really not clear yet what impact they will have, but it seems likely to be more significant than in 2012 or 2008.

If you look at the appeal of Johnson:

1. Moderate (fiscally conservative, not too far to the right on cultural issues etc)
2. Right temperament (i.e. not Trump)
3. Trusted (i.e. not Clinton)

Now, if you think of those three features, 1, 2 and a little bit of 3 might attract people who would otherwise vote for Trump. Trump is still regarded as too far to the right on immigration by many - including many moderate Republicans who recognise the problems to the economy if you try to mass-deport illegals or if you seek to ban people based on religion.

Trump's critics in the GOP fall into two camps, I think - those who think he's a dangerous extremist, and those who think he's not conservative enough on, e.g. gay marriage, abortion etc. The latter group will find no solace in Johnson, but the former group might.

As for Clinton, she is essentially a moderate Democrat. Were her unfavourable lower, and if you were just looking at her policy platform, she would be well positioned to win over some moderate Republicans. Forgetting about her personal attributes, though, I don't think anyone will make the argument that Clinton is really too far to the left. The primaries have pushed her a bit to the left, but she already has sufficient stock in the bag being (a) a Clinton (a byword for being a moderate or even right-leaning Democrat; and (b) having a pragmatic and bipartisan record in the Senate.

So there isn't going to be a big constituency saying 'I'd vote for the Democrats if only they were closer to the centre' in this election. There will be a constituency saying 'I'd vote for the Democrats if they were further left', but again, they're not going to find much appeal in Johnson. Some of his positions (on, e.g. drugs) might be attractive, but his economic policies aren't going to appeal to those on the left more than Clinton's.

So on the first 'attraction', you'd have to imagine that Johnson hurts Trump more than Clinton.

On the second factor, temperament, again, Trump loses out to Clinton. Whatever one's disagreements with Clinton on policy or trustworthiness, the general perception is that she is qualified and able to be President and to exercise rational judgement in office (even if one disagrees with the judgement she eventually reaches). There is unlikely to be a big constituency saying 'I'd vote for Clinton but she's just too unpredictable/hotheaded/risky'.

Trump, on the other hand, is the opposite. There will be a cohort who would vote for him but would view him as being either too intemperate, or too undignified, to hold the office. So again, on this second 'attraction', Johnson would seem to hurt Trump more than Clinton.

It's only the last one where Clinton is hurt. There will be people, probably moderates, natural, centrist voters who would normally vote Democrat who just don't trust Clinton.

Trump's problem is that I doubt he's massively trusted either. There is a perception that he will say whatever it takes to get votes, that he's only out for his own financial wellbeing etc.

On this third attraction of Johnson, I would say he would hurt Clinton marginally more, but not too much more than Trump.

On balance then, I think Trump has more to lose than Clinton. But not as much as he would lose if the 'third party' challenge was coming mainly from someone on the conservative right.
If The Libertarians can square the circle on National Security they'll be much more of a challenge to Trump

The GOP rural dumbos and the bluedogs (who actually vary between Dem and GOP) want to hear that The Libertarians will whoop Putin's ass

If The Libertarians can find a way to do that, without pissing off their base ...Trump will be very shakey

cYp
 

GDPR

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If The Libertarians can square the circle on National Security they'll be much more of a challenge to Trump

The GOP rural dumbos and the bluedogs (who actually vary between Dem and GOP) want to hear that The Libertarians will whoop Putin's ass

If The Libertarians can find a way to do that, without pissing off their base ...Trump will be very shakey

cYp
Yeah, I can just see a libertarian POTUS:
[h=1]James Weeks Strips at Libertarian Party National Convention[/h]
 

cyberianpan

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The preceding reply attacks a claim that I did not in fact make, but such would be expected from such feeble minded people

Johnson is beginning to get serious National attention, of particular interest will be how GOP Congressional candidates, who want to target brown voters, will treat him...the smart thing for them would be to throw Trump under the bus by embracing Johnson...and such may end up encouraging independent runs for Congress, based on either side of the immigration issue...then might Trump support an independent bigot, against the official GOP candidate?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/05/31/gary-johnson-takes-on-trumps-anti-immigration-lies/

All this of course in the light of the RNC role

Donald Trump
To complement its lean operation, the Trump campaign has begun relying on the Republican National Committee for everything from opposition research to communications help and voter data.

On Thursday, Mr. Trump expressed confidence that the R.N.C. could take over for what he has not done himself.

“They built, over years and years, staffs in every state — you can’t do that, or you can’t do it very well, if you’re doing it all over the next few months,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Thursday in North Dakota. “You can’t do that over a period of just a short while, because we have November coming up very rapidly. It’s going to be very soon.
RNC official: We won

And see this
Donald Trump, RNC sign joint fundraising deal - CBS News

Trump is caught in a pincer movement..

Cyp
 

drummed

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They'll be too busy smoking dope with hookers and shooting each other to bother voting.
 

cyberianpan

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Mitt's a good guy, complex

Mitt Romney may vote Libertarian, as GOP criticism of Trump deepens | US news | The Guardian
The former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has said he will consider voting for the Libertarian party in the presidential election instead of Donald Trump, in a stark example of how far the GOP establishment is from accepting the billionaire leading its bid for the White House.

Romney, who lost to Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, even said that the decision to vote against his party would be “very easy” if Bill Weld, another former Massachusetts governor who has fundraised for Romney, was at the top of the Libertarian ticket.
cYp
 

Ardillaun

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Romney is the sort of hyper-competent person who should be in the running every time. How old is he now? Still looks Hollywood (expletive deleted). After his loss to McCain, he should have spent a year or two doing something low level on the ground, perhaps a community organizer even in a city as prosperous as Boston, to see how life is changing for ordinary Americans. Unfortunately, that probably would have made him unelectable to Republican primary voters. Now they have chosen a ridiculous charlatan who will not be respected at home or abroad.
 
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Dame_Enda

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Romney has a 64% negative rating according to a recent poll.

Interestingly his father refused to endorse Goldwater in 1964 so it runs in the family.
 


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